10M Bitcoins Haven’t Moved in More Than a Year, Highest Since 2017 - page 3.

wheelz1200

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Quote from: alyssa85 on January 09, 2020, 08:59:51 AM

https://www.coindesk.com/10m-bitcoins-havent-moved-in-more-than-a-year-highest-since-2017

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About 10.7 million bitcoins haven’t moved in more than 12 months, according to Digital Assets Data, a fintech company building crypto data feeds.

Considering the total number of bitcoins in circulation is 18.14 million, this also means nearly 60 percent of the coins remained dormant and only 40 percent participated in the price action seen in 2019. The percentage of bitcoins lying dormant for over a year is at its highest level since early 2017.

“The sheer size of unmoved bitcoin is definitely a sign of the developing community of HODLers,” Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer at Komodo Platform, told CoinDesk.

The top cryptocurrency witnessed substantial swings last year, rising from $3,693 to $13,879 in the first six months only to fall back to $7,179 by mid-December. Thus, bitcoin just about doubled last year despite the brutal sell-off in the second half.

Even so, a large number of bitcoins remained inactive, possibly because investors are expecting a significant price rise following the mining reward halving, due in May. The process, repeated every four years, reduces block rewards by half in order to keep inflation under check.

However, if the market doesn’t live up to lofty expectations, some selling could be seen, Stadelmann said. In that case, the sum of bitcoins lying dormant would drop.

I think the rise from around $3,300 to $7,500 in 2019 was definitely people accumulating in anticipation of the halving.

Watch for rapid sales though as bitcoin reaches it's price targets.

I agree with you. There will be massive profit taking up into $20k once we get through that resistance who knows where this thing blows to. Will be awhile to get through 20k without massive influx of brand new money. People took hard losses in 2018, people will remember that crash

STT

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IF everyone is a holder then I see that as mutually assured destruction, BTC is for using and thats what gives it worth. Monetary velocity to some extent expands the valuation possible for pricing BTC as the exchange raises worth within a digital economy, just holding is very plain and frozen in comparison. Its the diversity of usage that creates value really. I think its not quite as alarming as it could be we have entered a stage of BTC being an easily hedged asset and that occurs off chain, so we have a depth and add layers to the market and thats a positive.

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Some may choose to change sectors and invest in other commodities than crypto.

Portfolio balancing is essential for normal investment vs risk. Especially over a larger time period such as BTC has been around, people do need to trim back their risk as they get a bit older and start to hold assets related to their costs such as housing.

teosanru

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Quote from: alyssa85 on January 09, 2020, 08:59:51 AM

https://www.coindesk.com/10m-bitcoins-havent-moved-in-more-than-a-year-highest-since-2017

Quote

About 10.7 million bitcoins haven’t moved in more than 12 months, according to Digital Assets Data, a fintech company building crypto data feeds.

Considering the total number of bitcoins in circulation is 18.14 million, this also means nearly 60 percent of the coins remained dormant and only 40 percent participated in the price action seen in 2019. The percentage of bitcoins lying dormant for over a year is at its highest level since early 2017.

“The sheer size of unmoved bitcoin is definitely a sign of the developing community of HODLers,” Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer at Komodo Platform, told CoinDesk.

The top cryptocurrency witnessed substantial swings last year, rising from $3,693 to $13,879 in the first six months only to fall back to $7,179 by mid-December. Thus, bitcoin just about doubled last year despite the brutal sell-off in the second half.

Even so, a large number of bitcoins remained inactive, possibly because investors are expecting a significant price rise following the mining reward halving, due in May. The process, repeated every four years, reduces block rewards by half in order to keep inflation under check.

However, if the market doesn’t live up to lofty expectations, some selling could be seen, Stadelmann said. In that case, the sum of bitcoins lying dormant would drop.

I think the rise from around $3,300 to $7,500 in 2019 was definitely people accumulating in anticipation of the halving.

Watch for rapid sales though as bitcoin reaches it's price targets.

Pretty true it happens almost everytime. Basically Market in built and destroyed based on this same thesis. When the crash from 19k started people who were actually intelligent enough sold pretty much in 17k-18k. 19k was more like a peak of the mountain which nobody actually expected but occurred because certain folks thought that BTC is imminent and it would soon reach $100K now a similar thing would happen. People who have brought BTC at 4-5k once again will sell at a pretty good level and buy again if they find themselves wrong. But similarly there would be some people who would buy at peaks anticipating further price rises. These will be the biggest losers.

Quote from: Linkkoin on January 15, 2020, 11:47:22 AM

Quote from: btccashacc on January 15, 2020, 11:35:47 AM

Perhaps those coins which bought before or during the ATH, seems like people are trying to HODL and wait for the bitcoin to reach the ATH again so they can recover their losses, I believe they didn't sell those coins or did the cut loss when the price was going down, they might think that it could recover soon. I personally still holding my bitcoin, not gonna sell them wven though the ATH has reached, just holding them as a long term.

Well, eventually HODLers were the winners in December 2017

You think HODLers won?? HODLers didn't even sell around the ATH because they continued to HODL thinking that BTC would go much far. I would say this is a very unique thing associated with BTC - HODLing. HODLERS actually never win in bullish situation because they actually never sell even if BTC reaches the top. They often just remain in an illusion of their unrealized profits. But actually hodlers are the only reason why BTC market actually could survive the 19k crash and BTC took more than an year to dip down to 3k otherwise it would have been an immediate sell off.

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Quote from: btccashacc on January 15, 2020, 11:35:47 AM

Perhaps those coins which bought before or during the ATH, seems like people are trying to HODL and wait for the bitcoin to reach the ATH again so they can recover their losses, I believe they didn't sell those coins or did the cut loss when the price was going down, they might think that it could recover soon. I personally still holding my bitcoin, not gonna sell them wven though the ATH has reached, just holding them as a long term.

Well, eventually HODLers were the winners in December 2017

btccashacc

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Perhaps those coins which bought before or during the ATH, seems like people are trying to HODL and wait for the bitcoin to reach the ATH again so they can recover their losses, I believe they didn't sell those coins or did the cut loss when the price was going down, they might think that it could recover soon. I personally still holding my bitcoin, not gonna sell them wven though the ATH has reached, just holding them as a long term.

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on January 15, 2020, 10:20:24 AM

How many of these coins are lost? Somewhere I read that 3 million to 4 million BTC can't be spend, because no one have the private keys to access them. Satoshi's coins alone account for more than BTC980,000.

As for analysis made by Wall Street Journal, there are 20% lost bitcoins in total supply that's probably from 3 million to 4 million of bitcoins. Lost bitcoins are unrecoverable, thank you to those people who forgot and lost their access keys because of them we are much pretty sure that bitcoin won't kiss the ground anymore. If there are 10M unmoved bitcoins over a year, does it mean something tragic will happen in the future? I'm very doubtful on such amount of unmoved bitcoins.

Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on January 15, 2020, 10:20:24 AM

On top of that, we have coins that were once owned by dead people such as Gerald Cotton and Alexandru Bogdan Semenciuc, which are now lost.

I'm pretty sure these people mentioned above is thinking enough after they die, they definitely give the access to their heirs to benefit from it. Or they already sold it before they die and give it to their family nonetheless they give to some financial institution to take care of it.

SquallLeonhart

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I think it is mainly because exchanges have been the richest "people" in the world for the past couple of years, "since 2017" suggests a long time but honestly there was just 2018 in between, so having 2019 as a new high is not really that surprising.

Binance for example probably has thousands of bitcoins they don't need to use in some cold storage staying there for years without touching it, same for many places like poloniex, bittrex, coinbase and many others, they are making so so much money that, they probably have multiple cold storage for safety and some of them probably are never touched because they don't really need that much money to begin with for operations (for spending on personal luxury is different). Long story short, exchanges probably have at least quarter of that 10m easily.

Karmakid

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People are realizing the true opportunity behind bitcoin and that is what made them think that holding is the best option to maximize the potential return of this emerging market. I also hold some of my bitcoin but most of my bitcoins are in an exchange which I use to trade altcoins because I also see opportunity in trading beside from holding my bags.

Vishnu.Reang

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How many of these coins are lost? Somewhere I read that 3 million to 4 million BTC can't be spend, because no one have the private keys to access them. Satoshi's coins alone account for more than BTC980,000. On top of that, we have coins that were once owned by dead people such as Gerald Cotton and Alexandru Bogdan Semenciuc, which are now lost.

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Quote from: EdenHazard on January 15, 2020, 08:26:56 AM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on January 15, 2020, 06:15:35 AM

I think it's not that surprising, I always believed that hodling is the number one use case for Bitcoin, it's still hard to find a place where you can spend it, and even when you found one, the question is why would you spend it instead of fiat? If privacy is not a concern, it's better to get rid of fiat first, since it's losing its value while Bitcoin is gaining.

Also, the future might look even more "stale" thanks to Lightning network, as coins will not be moved on chain for months or years while actually being actively transacted on the second layer.

Quote from: sovie on January 15, 2020, 03:22:25 AM

Its probably because many have lost there keys while others don't have a place to spend and are accumulating them as an asset of investment. There will be total supply of 21 million and if this figure 10M bitcoin is true then this means many are hodling bitcoins for day to come. Though I doubt these stats.

The amount of lost coins is estimated at 1-2 millions, so it's a small part of 10 mllions that weren't moved.

Lost coins is estimated at 4 millions according to several studies / researches ... chainalysis is one of the researcher quoted by wall street journal.

Plus 1 million coins owned by satoshi , make it 5 millions. It's not small part of those 10 millions anymore.
There's no such manipulation, all of these movements is petty much organic.

So, apparently, we know why 5 million(50% of the coins mentioned in the OP) haven't moved since 2017. Now, I think that a big part of the remaining ones hasn't moved either for the following reason. I think those coins were bought at whatever price, some of them below $200 and others at around $19k, by people who could afford to lose the amount invested in BTC, and they are waiting for at least $50k to cash out. In other words, they are not traders. They want neither to earn a small amount nor to diminish their losses. They want it all or nothing, and that's why they don't touch their coins until the price is "high enough"(it can be $1 million for some).

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on January 15, 2020, 06:15:35 AM

I think it's not that surprising, I always believed that hodling is the number one use case for Bitcoin, it's still hard to find a place where you can spend it, and even when you found one, the question is why would you spend it instead of fiat? If privacy is not a concern, it's better to get rid of fiat first, since it's losing its value while Bitcoin is gaining.

Also, the future might look even more "stale" thanks to Lightning network, as coins will not be moved on chain for months or years while actually being actively transacted on the second layer.

Quote from: sovie on January 15, 2020, 03:22:25 AM

Its probably because many have lost there keys while others don't have a place to spend and are accumulating them as an asset of investment. There will be total supply of 21 million and if this figure 10M bitcoin is true then this means many are hodling bitcoins for day to come. Though I doubt these stats.

The amount of lost coins is estimated at 1-2 millions, so it's a small part of 10 mllions that weren't moved.

Lost coins is estimated at 4 millions according to several studies / researches ... chainalysis is one of the researcher quoted by wall street journal.

Plus 1 million coins owned by satoshi , make it 5 millions. It's not small part of those 10 millions anymore.
There's no such manipulation, all of these movements is petty much organic.

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on January 15, 2020, 06:15:35 AM

The amount of lost coins is estimated at 1-2 millions, so it's a small part of 10 mllions that weren't moved.

Just 2? As we remember it was estimated that it as more like 4 million number.

hatshepsut93

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I think it's not that surprising, I always believed that hodling is the number one use case for Bitcoin, it's still hard to find a place where you can spend it, and even when you found one, the question is why would you spend it instead of fiat? If privacy is not a concern, it's better to get rid of fiat first, since it's losing its value while Bitcoin is gaining.

Also, the future might look even more "stale" thanks to Lightning network, as coins will not be moved on chain for months or years while actually being actively transacted on the second layer.

Quote from: sovie on January 15, 2020, 03:22:25 AM

Its probably because many have lost there keys while others don't have a place to spend and are accumulating them as an asset of investment. There will be total supply of 21 million and if this figure 10M bitcoin is true then this means many are hodling bitcoins for day to come. Though I doubt these stats.

The amount of lost coins is estimated at 1-2 millions, so it's a small part of 10 mllions that weren't moved.

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Quote from: sovie on January 15, 2020, 03:22:25 AM

Its probably because many have lost there keys while others don't have a place to spend and are accumulating them as an asset of investment. There will be total supply of 21 million and if this figure 10M bitcoin is true then this means many are hodling bitcoins for day to come. Though I doubt these stats.

it might be possible but you should know that there is no guarantee that it can happen because bitcoin price movements are difficult to predict even though supply is getting more limited and more difficult to get bitcoin but bitcoin prices may not necessarily be expensive.

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Quote from: sovie on January 15, 2020, 03:22:25 AM

Its probably because many have lost there keys while others don't have a place to spend and are accumulating them as an asset of investment. There will be total supply of 21 million and if this figure 10M bitcoin is true then this means many are hodling bitcoins for day to come. Though I doubt these stats.

It wont really be that precise on having that 10M coins havent moved out yet we should consider those which are lost or floating to void
but if large part of the entire number is still accessible then it wont be a surprise if there would be a crash on price i majority of those holder
would tend to secure profits on a specific time.As said this might happen before the halving event commence.

sovie

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Its probably because many have lost there keys while others don't have a place to spend and are accumulating them as an asset of investment. There will be total supply of 21 million and if this figure 10M bitcoin is true then this means many are hodling bitcoins for day to come. Though I doubt these stats.

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So anyway, I applied as a merit source :)

Whales have to cash out too. Dont get me wrong, the holders are there but there are people who need to cash their coins and pay for their bills, investments and so on.

Some may choose to change sectors and invest in other commodities than crypto. This can be likely with the stagnancy with bitcoin price leaving out the last 24hour 400$ rise in bitcoin price, talking in general about the last 2years.

With the halving approaching my prediction is that people will stack up and sell on any of the pumps before the halving. Be ready for a bloodbath during those days. It can get really unpredictable.

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Quote from: cabron on January 14, 2020, 02:56:31 PM

They're saying more bitcoins are not in circulation but in the personal wallet of many investors and that means these investors are aiming to profit in holding it for a very long time. 8M BTC are up for grabs for new comers who wants to buy. Seem a lot much still to expect BTC to surpass the ATH 20k.

Yeah of course they are long-term holders, not without reason millions of bitcoins are not circulating, there is certainly a strong reason about the future of bitcoin holders. Other bitcoin holders should be aware of that, rather than being carried away by FUD to sell with the flow that is not clear. The fact is the whales are still waiting for bitcoin to go beyond ATH.

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Quote from: blckhawk on January 15, 2020, 12:23:23 AM

Makes sense, actually, since the generated, circulating bitcoins would be higher today because of mining than in earlier times. Add to that the fact that most holders are anticipating in the halving, especially the whales. Though one thing to note is that this 10M unmoved btc might be distributed well, and not only held by a small group of individuals. But still, it would make a great wave when the market starts to get manipulated.

With the 10M BTC to be moved, I do think that if this will be divided first amongst people across the world and be use in more exchange not just one, we could have a better market price that will enable us to have more profits with our investment. The bitcoin halving on the other hand is a great support for us to have a strong reason why we are selling bitcoin in higher prices. Thus, we are all the way to achieve good market price over time.

blckhawk

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Makes sense, actually, since the generated, circulating bitcoins would be higher today because of mining than in earlier times. Add to that the fact that most holders are anticipating in the halving, especially the whales. Though one thing to note is that this 10M unmoved btc might be distributed well, and not only held by a small group of individuals. But still, it would make a great wave when the market starts to get manipulated.

Topic: 10M Bitcoins Haven’t Moved in More Than a Year, Highest Since 2017 - page 3. (Read 861 times)