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Topic: $13,000 bitcoins by the end of 2016? $120,000 by 2018? (golden ratio fractals) - page 6. (Read 13841 times)

legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
Quit interesting but  Huh

Quite*

Well I don't think it's possible but what was impossible before had already happened so, I don't know wether to believe in this speculation or not. What I amonly hoping is that and I think will happen anytime soon, bitcoin price will rise once again, might not be a rocket change but atleast there will be increament. Cheesy


it's not only possible, it's inevitable.  

If bitcoin catches on, since there's only 21 million coins, not everyone will be able to afford a full bitcoin. 1 bitcoin has to be an outrageous amount of money, too much for most persons to even afford. Otherwise we would have a paradox.  

You can't have 7 billion people each holding 1 bitcoin or even more than 1 bitcoin and at the same time having only 21 million bitcoin. Since we know 21 million is a hard limit, if bitcoin becomes popular it will be insanely expensive. So expensive that most people can only afford a few mills (1/1000th of a bitcoin) and some people might not even be able to afford that.

There are only two options:

1) Bitcoin catches on and becomes widely used around the world (it seems like this is in fact happening, although it will take a few more years to really catch on). And therefore bitcoin will become insanely expensive.  

2) Bitcoin will remain a nerd-club only permanently and the mainstream will only use fiat (or perhaps a different crypto, but for some reason not bitcoin). In this case the price will stabilize at best, and decrease at worst. I find this a very unlikely outcome, but it's possible.   

Remember that 20 years ago nobody even knew they wanted a mobile phone, common arguments were: I already have a phone at home or I don't want people to constantly bother me if i am going out/at work.

And the same thing with computers and the internet and the washing machine. You see the pattern?

People don't know they want it, but they want it, and once the realization kicks in, they will race to buy them.

legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
Quote
People don't know they want it, but they want it, and once the realization kicks in, they will race to buy them.

I agree with your points except that the 'them' in your quote could mean Litecoin, Ethereum, Lisk, Google Coin, Federal Reserve Coin, etc...

Sure, I never claimed Bitcoin is the only one, I just think it's the most likely candidate, but it's possible that another coin gets the favor of the masses. I personally doubt it though.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1023
While the prediction of all time highs is exciting, could we also have the prediction for the lows in between so that I know when to buy before selling at the high poiints?  Grin Grin
hero member
Activity: 788
Merit: 1000
Quote
People don't know they want it, but they want it, and once the realization kicks in, they will race to buy them.

I agree with your points except that the 'them' in your quote could mean Litecoin, Ethereum, Lisk, Google Coin, Federal Reserve Coin, etc...
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
Quit interesting but  Huh

Quite*

Well I don't think it's possible but what was impossible before had already happened so, I don't know wether to believe in this speculation or not. What I amonly hoping is that and I think will happen anytime soon, bitcoin price will rise once again, might not be a rocket change but atleast there will be increament. Cheesy


it's not only possible, it's inevitable.  

If bitcoin catches on, since there's only 21 million coins, not everyone will be able to afford a full bitcoin. 1 bitcoin has to be an outrageous amount of money, too much for most persons to even afford. Otherwise we would have a paradox.  

You can't have 7 billion people each holding 1 bitcoin or even more than 1 bitcoin and at the same time having only 21 million bitcoin. Since we know 21 million is a hard limit, if bitcoin becomes popular it will be insanely expensive. So expensive that most people can only afford a few mills (1/1000th of a bitcoin) and some people might not even be able to afford that.

There are only two options:

1) Bitcoin catches on and becomes widely used around the world (it seems like this is in fact happening, although it will take a few more years to really catch on). And therefore bitcoin will become insanely expensive.  

2) Bitcoin will remain a nerd-club only permanently and the mainstream will only use fiat (or perhaps a different crypto, but for some reason not bitcoin). In this case the price will stabilize at best, and decrease at worst. I find this a very unlikely outcome, but it's possible.   

Remember that 20 years ago nobody even knew they wanted a mobile phone, common arguments were: I already have a phone at home or I don't want people to constantly bother me if i am going out/at work.

And the same thing with computers and the internet and the washing machine. You see the pattern?

People don't know they want it, but they want it, and once the realization kicks in, they will race to buy them.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
If the price of bitcoin rises to $13,000 by the end of 2016, most people in this forum will be quite happy.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1895
...

It may be that Bitcoin's next big price move up will be in response to an actual financial crisis, which many observers see coming.

For example is Europe decides to impose capital controls, that would be very damaging not only to them, but would likely be the catalyst for a huge move up in BTC price.  Any loss of confidence in currencies would likely do the same, create the conditions for a truly majestic move up in BTC.  If governments overreact to any problems (by printing, capital controls, etc.), that would likely do it as well.

Lots could go wrong in the world, bad things happening would likely lift the price of BTC.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
This far to high in my opinion. We are now not even in the thousands but still in the hundreds. Lets get to the thousand before we start talking about $13,000 and $120,000. 
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
No this is not possible! We can talk about double or triple price increase but everything above needs some serious money. This is obvious day dream.
Don't forget Bitcoin has already super price!
full member
Activity: 413
Merit: 100
https://eloncity.io/
Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

It came true, just like the chart predicted.... Now we are waiting for the next major vertical move.
 

I think that it is not coming...as simple as this

What's simple is the fact taht Bitcoin is only 6 billion dollars in marketcap, and there are tons of trillions of money in cash, real state, stocks, oil, metals... all searching to get into other places to get safe for when the shit hits the fan really soon, and Bitcoin is the best way to have this money outside of regulators and parasites.

Markets have completely tanked in the last two months... bitcoin has not exploded, with the coming halving and the tanking markets the current bitcoin price is shocking and makes everyone pause....... what is happening that we cannot see, because something is keeping the price down, and it may be a long term trend.....

---OR-- (but hoping not to be overly optimistic) the spring could be tightening as whales are buying up weak hands worried about the 'forking'.   This could be the perfect storm, building tension to send it to the moon,,, but who knows.  You buy your ticket, you take your chances.  Good luck to all.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
It is enjoyable to read these optimistic predictions about the future bitcoin price, but it is just speculation without solid basis, especially when most serious traders know that technical analysis is nothing but a series of superstitions and assumptions based on erroneous calculations full of subjectivity. But the worst thing is to believe that previous market behavior will be repeated in the future, when it is well known that it never occurs with certainty in markets.

The fucked up part is this one actually came true. 
 
I think many people are totally missing that this guy accurately predicted Bitcoin's rise to $500 out of nowhere and the subsequent crash. 
 
What will you say if he's right about the next move up too?
legendary
Activity: 1639
Merit: 1006
Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

It came true, just like the chart predicted.... Now we are waiting for the next major vertical move.
 

I think that it is not coming...as simple as this

What's simple is the fact taht Bitcoin is only 6 billion dollars in marketcap, and there are tons of trillions of money in cash, real state, stocks, oil, metals... all searching to get into other places to get safe for when the shit hits the fan really soon, and Bitcoin is the best way to have this money outside of regulators and parasites.

Markets have completely tanked in the last two months... bitcoin has not exploded, with the coming halving and the tanking markets the current bitcoin price is shocking and makes everyone pause....... what is happening that we cannot see, because something is keeping the price down, and it may be a long term trend.....
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 507
It is enjoyable to read these optimistic predictions about the future bitcoin price, but it is just speculation without solid basis, especially when most serious traders know that technical analysis is nothing but a series of superstitions and assumptions based on erroneous calculations full of subjectivity. But the worst thing is to believe that previous market behavior will be repeated in the future, when it is well known that it never occurs with certainty in markets.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
I think what is forgotten is that when Bitcoin was at $2 it was cheap to get in for the average joe. Even at a couple hundred many people could have money to spare. But when your talking thousands for just one coins it scares people away (even if you can buy fractually).

Someone is more likely to say screw it let me throw in $20 when that gets you 10 coins, but not when it gets you .001 coin

Then people need to start thinking in Bits, not in whole Bitcoins. 
 
If they want to own something cheap and risky, Monero's are only 50 cents each, but you don't see people chomping to buy tons of those yet, do you?  That's because it's slightly harder to own Monero vs Bitcoin.  To buy Bitcoin it's as easy as it has ever been - download one of several reputable apps and connect with one of several reputable exchanges. 
 
The easier something is, the less opportunity is there. 
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
I think what is forgotten is that when Bitcoin was at $2 it was cheap to get in for the average joe. Even at a couple hundred many people could have money to spare. But when your talking thousands for just one coins it scares people away (even if you can buy fractually).

Someone is more likely to say screw it let me throw in $20 when that gets you 10 coins, but not when it gets you .001 coin
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1252
Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

It came true, just like the chart predicted.... Now we are waiting for the next major vertical move.
 

I think that it is not coming...as simple as this

What's simple is the fact taht Bitcoin is only 6 billion dollars in marketcap, and there are tons of trillions of money in cash, real state, stocks, oil, metals... all searching to get into other places to get safe for when the shit hits the fan really soon, and Bitcoin is the best way to have this money outside of regulators and parasites.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

It came true, just like the chart predicted.... Now we are waiting for the next major vertical move.
 

I think that it is not coming...as simple as this
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

It came true, just like the chart predicted.... Now we are waiting for the next major vertical move.
 
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1004
In most cases the Golden Ratio is yours for absolutely nothing. In this case it would a tad costly. Retaining the ability to feed and house yourself is probably more important to most people.

Yeah, I can completely agree with this... until utility companies, grocery stores, and other companies who provide necessities to people who go about day by day/paycheck to paycheck, there won't be a price above $5,000 IMO... there has to be an incentive for more people to get into bitcoin for this to be even considered I would think.  When the price steadily increased throughout 2012-2013, there were more and more people being introduced to bitcoin that people felt the need to invest... that's what ultimately helped drive the price up (not to mention Gox; but that's another story).

I just can't see how $10K levels could be reached if this hasn't happened... but like everyone else says, anything could happen in the world of bitcoin Smiley
full member
Activity: 193
Merit: 100
 
It seems silly now, but when you start hearing about everyone around you getting rich, buying new houses, buying new cars... all because they bought this little thing called 'bitcoins' then don't underestimate the fiat exit rush that may happen.  The scary part is that bitcoin isn't anywhere *near* ready for that kind of volume or interest.

Ah yeah, the blocksize problem. I wonder when it will be solved  Roll Eyes
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