~1,314,000 new coins will be created over the next 365 days

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1070

Quote from: NorrisK on June 14, 2015, 04:00:25 PM

Quote from: Herbert2020 on June 14, 2015, 10:37:00 AM

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

this looks like that you are just playing with some big numbers. first of all new coins being created is not a new thing, it has been this way everyday and price moves up and down every day too.
besides it is not like every miner is going to dump the coin immediately after they mined it and change the market as a result of that.

Exactly, most miners are even holding because they see more bread in the long run than selling at these depressed prices that we see now.

knc is selling, 750 coins a day(probably some accumulation, because thye hold only 4% of the network), chinese are selling too, they don't want to see a bubble, for a reason explained in another thread about their government blocking their activity

and chinese pool are about 40% or perhaps more, so it is easy to guess that at least 1800-1900 coins are dumped everyday, probably more

oblivi

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 501

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

Totally agree. 2015-2016, the big "second chance" period. History books will be written about how the common folk and stuck up idiots that only listen to Warren Buffet, managed to miss the boat twice. First, before the 1K bubble, understandable because few heard of BTC back then. But the second one will be the one that makes everyone not buying monthly during this long period look like a huge moron once it takes off to new ATHs.
And the funny part is these guys will end up entering the third time, buying during the third ATH bubble.

jehst

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

21 million. I want them all.

If a miner mines bitcoin and keeps it, then the miner is selling bitcoin to himself. The price is his equipment and electricity. The bitcoin economy is still absorbing that value whether it's sold on an exchange or not.

NorrisK

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1007

Quote from: Herbert2020 on June 14, 2015, 10:37:00 AM

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

this looks like that you are just playing with some big numbers. first of all new coins being created is not a new thing, it has been this way everyday and price moves up and down every day too.
besides it is not like every miner is going to dump the coin immediately after they mined it and change the market as a result of that.

Exactly, most miners are even holding because they see more bread in the long run than selling at these depressed prices that we see now.

Herbert2020

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1137

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

this looks like that you are just playing with some big numbers. first of all new coins being created is not a new thing, it has been this way everyday and price moves up and down every day too.
besides it is not like every miner is going to dump the coin immediately after they mined it and change the market as a result of that.

painlord2k

sr. member

Activity: 453

Merit: 254

Now, the main thing keeping down the price is the limited number of transactions possible on the network.
Many large actors, even if they like Bitcoin, can not conceive to adopt it, because even 1% of their transactions would be more of what the entire bitcoin network could manage.
They would be like a hippopotamus trying to enter in a bucket.

When in the future the blocksize will increase, the number of transactions will increase too a lot faster than now.

This would drive adoption and the price up a lot faster than now.

Some data point out the daily bitcoins spent ara between 100k and 250K/day (the rest is movement of traders from an exchange to another or holders acquiring some coins).
This quantity didn't change a lot in the last 30 months.
If this is the quantity of coins available for buying and selling goods and services, the price could spike up a lot if adoption and demand show up.

Holders holding when hit K will not sell BTC when the price return to 500 or 1K.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: Amph on June 14, 2015, 06:47:54 AM

Quote from: molecular on June 14, 2015, 06:33:17 AM

Quote from: Amph on June 14, 2015, 04:59:19 AM

well most of those 8B are children or people that cannot handle money anyway(people with diseases ecc...), i think when we talk about full adoption, we should look at 1B at most, still too much for everyone that is looking to hold 1 btc, but it was just an example

lol. You think 87.5% of the population don't use money?

Children use money and people with diseases, too. And in cases where they don't, usually parent or custodians handle money for them. There's just no life possible without money most parts of this world.

Also your numbers seem to be off. Nowhere near 87.5% of people are sick or children.

you think that baby of 0-3 years uses money? and those that are terminally ill, uses money? anyway i didn't say that they do not use money at all, it is just that something like bitcoin will be a part of their world

add to my number the existing number of old guys

what i mean is that with 1B you can already consider fully adoption achieved, there is no need to wait for everyone on the planet to use bitcoin(which won't happen ever)

yeah, sure. I agree. 1 Billion = "success"!

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1070

Quote from: molecular on June 14, 2015, 06:33:17 AM

Quote from: Amph on June 14, 2015, 04:59:19 AM

well most of those 8B are children or people that cannot handle money anyway(people with diseases ecc...), i think when we talk about full adoption, we should look at 1B at most, still too much for everyone that is looking to hold 1 btc, but it was just an example

lol. You think 87.5% of the population don't use money?

Children use money and people with diseases, too. And in cases where they don't, usually parent or custodians handle money for them. There's just no life possible without money most parts of this world.

Also your numbers seem to be off. Nowhere near 87.5% of people are sick or children.

you think that baby of 0-3 years uses money? and those that are terminally ill, uses money? anyway i didn't say that they do not use money at all, it is just that something like bitcoin will not be a part of their world

add to my number the existing number of old guys

what i mean is that with 1B you can already consider fully adoption achieved, there is no need to wait for everyone on the planet to use bitcoin(which won't happen ever)

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: Amph on June 14, 2015, 04:59:19 AM

well most of those 8B are children or people that cannot handle money anyway(people with diseases ecc...), i think when we talk about full adoption, we should look at 1B at most, still too much for everyone that is looking to hold 1 btc, but it was just an example

lol. You think 87.5% of the population don't use money?

Children use money and people with diseases, too. And in cases where they don't, usually parent or custodians handle money for them. There's just no life possible without money most parts of this world.

Also your numbers seem to be off. Nowhere near 87.5% of people are sick or children.

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1070

Quote from: lyth0s on June 14, 2015, 03:44:16 AM

Quote from: Amph on June 14, 2015, 03:07:39 AM

Quote from: Bit_Happy on June 13, 2015, 09:50:55 PM

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

There are over 8 Billion people in the world.
Anyone who wants to own at least one entire Bitcoin needs to buy soon, before the prices go radically higher.

8B is not exactly the right number, we are still far away from 7.5B, the clock say 7,321,716,376

and if anyone want to hold at elast one bitcoin, i doubt the price will remain the same

what this thread is saying, is that in the worst scenario where the demand will not go up, the price will go up anyway(because of the mining supply ecc...), so if you add the demand you need to raise even more your expectation about the future price

There are not enough full bitcoins for everyone to own "one" bitcoin. If all 8 billion people wanted bitcoin an equal distribution (not curve) would be 0.0026BTC per person Cheesy

There will only be 21 million bitcoins. A single state in the US (such as california) has 38 million people Tongue

Decimals will be used for most transactions if bitcoin continues to succeed.

well most of those 8B are children or people that cannot handle money anyway(people with diseases ecc...), i think when we talk about full adoption, we should look at 1B at most, still too much for everyone that is looking to hold 1 btc, but it was just an example

ajareselde

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1000

Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin

Quote from: lyth0s on June 14, 2015, 03:44:16 AM

There are not enough full bitcoins for everyone to own "one" bitcoin. If all 8 billion people wanted bitcoin an equal distribution (not curve) would be 0.0026BTC per person Cheesy

There will only be 21 million bitcoins. A single state in the US (such as california) has 38 million people Tongue

Decimals will be used for most transactions if bitcoin continues to succeed.

Regarding the 21 million bitcoins limit, with time that number is getting smaller; all those lost wallets, funds sent to non existent addresses and so on..
But to divide bitcoin to every single person is a mistake, imagine how valuable gold would be if every single person owned it.. but they don't.
Bitcoin will (if it gets that kind of popularity) be a premium, and those who will own the most of it will once again be the top 1-5% of the wealthiest imho.

cheers

lyth0s

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1000

World Class Cryptonaire

Quote from: Amph on June 14, 2015, 03:07:39 AM

Quote from: Bit_Happy on June 13, 2015, 09:50:55 PM

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

There are over 8 Billion people in the world.
Anyone who wants to own at least one entire Bitcoin needs to buy soon, before the prices go radically higher.

8B is not exactly the right number, we are still far away from 7.5B, the clock say 7,321,716,376

and if anyone want to hold at elast one bitcoin, i doubt the price will remain the same

what this thread is saying, is that in the worst scenario where the demand will not go up, the price will go up anyway(because of the mining supply ecc...), so if you add the demand you need to raise even more your expectation about the future price

There are not enough full bitcoins for everyone to own "one" bitcoin. If all 8 billion people wanted bitcoin an equal distribution (not curve) would be 0.0026BTC per person Cheesy

There will only be 21 million bitcoins. A single state in the US (such as california) has 38 million people Tongue

Decimals will be used for most transactions if bitcoin continues to succeed.

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1070

Quote from: Bit_Happy on June 13, 2015, 09:50:55 PM

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

There are over 8 Billion people in the world.
Anyone who wants to own at least one entire Bitcoin needs to buy soon, before the prices go radically higher.

8B is not exactly the right number, we are still far away from 7.5B, the clock say 7,321,716,376

and if anyone want to hold at elast one bitcoin, i doubt the price will remain the same

what this thread is saying, is that in the worst scenario where the demand will not go up, the price will go up anyway(because of the mining supply ecc...), so if you add the demand you need to raise even more your expectation about the future price

okthen

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: ajareselde on June 13, 2015, 11:39:20 PM

Quote from: Bit_Happy on June 13, 2015, 09:50:55 PM

There are over 8 Billion people in the world.
Anyone who wants to own at least one entire Bitcoin needs to buy soon, before the prices go radically higher.

If there was any chance in that logic to succeed, one would also have to work on coin promotion and increase of bitcoin audience, but given the fact that there
is no central authority that would profit from such a thing, the only chance we have is same like before; hope for a pump large enough to make current holders spread the word about bitcoin.
Currently halving is the only option to make a mass hype to reappear, and there's still a lot of time til that point.

cheers

We can't count on 8 billion people, but in the western world it would only take a big newspiece to get most interested in getting even a portion of it. Will such news happen? Only time can tell...

ajareselde

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1000

Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin

Quote from: Bit_Happy on June 13, 2015, 09:50:55 PM

There are over 8 Billion people in the world.
Anyone who wants to own at least one entire Bitcoin needs to buy soon, before the prices go radically higher.

If there was any chance in that logic to succeed, one would also have to work on coin promotion and increase of bitcoin audience, but given the fact that there
is no central authority that would profit from such a thing, the only chance we have is same like before; hope for a pump large enough to make current holders spread the word about bitcoin.
Currently halving is the only option to make a mass hype to reappear, and there's still a lot of time til that point.

cheers

Bit_Happy

legendary

Activity: 2114

Merit: 1040

A Great Time to Start Something!

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

There are over 8 Billion people in the world.
Anyone who wants to own at least one entire Bitcoin needs to buy soon, before the prices go radically higher.

johnyj

legendary

Activity: 1988

Merit: 1012

Beyond Imagination

That's a lot of coins, some people still have hope to reach 10000 coins holding target Grin

Kupsi

legendary

Activity: 1193

Merit: 1003

9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 08:58:09 AM

I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up.

Look to Russia

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/localbtcRUB#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

Australia maybe Wink

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/localbtcAUD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

Or US Cheesy

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/localbtcUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

coinableS

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1186

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 08:58:09 AM

I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up.

I do, and I think a lot of other people do as well. A lot of people still don't know what bitcoin is and that it's actually a revolutionary technology. Most people think it's a bankrupt ponzi scheme with a CEO who committed suicide. Or they just think that it is phony nerd-money created out of thin air like WOW gold.
Although I agree the inflation rate is high now making it difficult to maintain a higher price, large range adoption could happen any time. If just a small percentage of the online population decided they wanted a bitcoin, they can't have it because there are not enough to go around.

spazzdla

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1000

So one will accumulate.

Topic: ~1,314,000 new coins will be created over the next 365 days (Read 1999 times)