~1,314,000 new coins will be created over the next 365 days - page 2.

jehst

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: Amph on June 13, 2015, 10:05:59 AM

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 08:58:09 AM

Demand and supply are equally important.

The reason I talk only about supply and not so much about demand is because I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up. Previously, demand increased by orders of magnitude as new segments of the population learned about bitcoin for the first time.
Bitcoin's no longer a secret. There is no giant pool of users waiting to adopt if only they knew about bitcoin. That was the case during every previous rally.

i find your way of knowing how the future of bitcoin will be, quite good, i like how you are isolating 1 variable, and leaving the other, that it is unknown for now, so it's better to play with what we know, like the mining supply

we know that if everything stays the same, so the demand will not change, the price in theory will go up because of the fixed rate of the mining supply, that will diminish over time, and will cause less dumping on the market, and thus the market will need to absorb less coins

Yes, you understand my way of thinking completely. Some people only see negativity in this post. I'm not negative. The bitcoin economy is growing at a healthy pace. Bitcoin's market cap is increasing millions of dollars per week during this period of stability. I'm optimistic. Bitcoin doesn't need to grow faster than it's growing. If demand growth remains the same, we simply need to wait as supply growth goes down).

In my opinion, after two block halvings, there will be 900 new BTC per day. If demand growth remains exactly the same, then we can sustain a $1000-2000/BTC exchange rate. Maybe this angers the people who have 3.2 BTC and want to be USD millionaires next year. But I think that waiting 6 years to quadruple one's purchasing power is actually considered a homerun investment in the real world. If $1000 to $2000 per bitcoin in 6 years doesn't sound appealing, then the solution is just to get more bitcoin. Get a sufficient number of bitcoin so that you can be happy with $2000 per bitcoin.

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1070

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 08:58:09 AM

Demand and supply are equally important.

The reason I talk only about supply and not so much about demand is because I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up. Previously, demand increased by orders of magnitude as new segments of the population learned about bitcoin for the first time.
Bitcoin's no longer a secret. There is no giant pool of users waiting to adopt if only they knew about bitcoin. That was the case during every previous rally.

i find your way of knowing how the future of bitcoin will be, quite good, i like how you are isolating 1 variable, and leaving the other, that it is unknown for now, so it's better to play with what we know, like the mining supply

we know that if everything stays the same, so the demand will not change, the price in theory will go up because of the fixed rate of the mining supply, that will diminish over time, and will cause less dumping on the market, and thus the market will need to absorb less coins

jehst

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: futureofbitcoin on June 13, 2015, 06:36:08 AM

Quote from: eerygarden on June 13, 2015, 06:30:39 AM

Quote from: futureofbitcoin on June 13, 2015, 06:27:59 AM

it seems like the OP doesn't understand the situation, but none of the posters understood the OP.

He's simply trying to say that the price will increase after the halving or maybe the next halving. When inflation of coins will be very little, perhaps even negative inflation because of lost coins.

perhaps i misunderstood but it seems to me the OP was saying that the price may rise but it will inevitably always fall.

He's saying the inflation of coins is too large currently to sustain large price growth. But when the inflation becomes small, then price growth will be sustainable.

This is further evidenced by his signature.

Yes exactly. Was my op so unclear that only a few people could understand it? If so, I apologize.

Quote

That said, more important than the amount of inflation is the amount of adoption. If enough people adopt, potentially tens or hundreds of billions can be poured in, a mere 300 million is just a drop in the bucket.

Demand and supply are equally important.

The reason I talk only about supply and not so much about demand is because I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up. Previously, demand increased by orders of magnitude as new segments of the population learned about bitcoin for the first time.
Bitcoin's no longer a secret. There is no giant pool of users waiting to adopt if only they knew about bitcoin. That was the case during every previous rally.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

~1,314,000 new coins will be created over the next 365 days
Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

The economy doesn't absorb anything. It uses money to facilitate trade or as collateral in contracts.

I think what you might mean is that demand will have to absorb 1.3 mm worth of supply.

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more.

what? That would cost someone many many millions of dollars. Better accumulate slowly at low prices while there's blood on the streets, which is what the smart money is doing, just as it was doing at $2 in December 2011 (only now things move much slower)

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

In most of the "distribution phase" the trend has been UP. Guess what: because there is demand from the people the coins are being distributed to. Coins aren't just distributed by mining, they're also distributed by selling (even more so now than back in the past the gpu / cpu mining was a thing, and also even more so at low prices when miners have to sell a higher percentage of the mined coins).

Controlled supply doesn't guarantee anything. If (when) demand outpaces the constantly diminishing supply, the price will rise.

Will you then be surprised and say:

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

eerygarden

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 250

Quote from: futureofbitcoin link=topic=1088850.msg11607490#msg11607490

That said, more important than the amount of inflation is the amount of adoption. If enough people adopt, potentially tens or hundreds of billions can be poured in, a mere 300 million is just a drop in the bucket.

yep, totally.

futureofbitcoin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Quote from: eerygarden on June 13, 2015, 06:30:39 AM

Quote from: futureofbitcoin on June 13, 2015, 06:27:59 AM

it seems like the OP doesn't understand the situation, but none of the posters understood the OP.

He's simply trying to say that the price will increase after the halving or maybe the next halving. When inflation of coins will be very little, perhaps even negative inflation because of lost coins.

perhaps i misunderstood but it seems to me the OP was saying that the price may rise but it will inevitably always fall.

He's saying the inflation of coins is too large currently to sustain large price growth. But when the inflation becomes small, then price growth will be sustainable.

This is further evidenced by his signature.

That said, more important than the amount of inflation is the amount of adoption. If enough people adopt, potentially tens or hundreds of billions can be poured in, a mere 300 million is just a drop in the bucket.

eerygarden

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 250

Quote from: futureofbitcoin on June 13, 2015, 06:27:59 AM

it seems like the OP doesn't understand the situation, but none of the posters understood the OP.

He's simply trying to say that the price will increase after the halving or maybe the next halving. When inflation of coins will be very little, perhaps even negative inflation because of lost coins.

perhaps i misunderstood but it seems to me the OP was saying that the price may rise but it will inevitably always fall.

futureofbitcoin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 250

it seems like the OP doesn't understand the situation, but none of the posters understood the OP.

He's simply trying to say that the price will increase after the halving or maybe the next halving. When inflation of coins will be very little, perhaps even negative inflation because of lost coins.

eerygarden

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 250

It sounds like an awful lot but how many gbp or usd get created each year? Or for other investments like gold or property, how many of these are created or mined each year? The difference with bitcoin is we know the ceiling and it is pretty scarce.

inca

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1000

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

You don't understand bitcoin.

NorrisK

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1007

Quote from: jehst on June 13, 2015, 01:57:02 AM

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

This is the same rate as the last few years. you clearly didnt do your homework before you invested in bitcoin. Time to sell for you as you obviously got in above your head.

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1070

ok but, these coins will not be dumped all in one session, they will be dumped at the rate of 1800(it's a good estimate about how many coins are dumped each day, because i doubt that miners are dumping 100% of their reward) at max per day, it won't be a real problem to absorb those in the arch of an entire year

jehst

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

21 million. I want them all.

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

Topic: ~1,314,000 new coins will be created over the next 365 days - page 2. (Read 1999 times)