By MPPS do you mean eligius? Eligius is not in credit,
Since you're discussing the expected value and infinite time
Actually my statement was about finite time, not infinite time.
As far as eligius having a credit in the future, that's all well and good, but it doesn't have one right now and won't have one any time soon. For all we know eligius may change its payout method at some point in time.
My statement was correct at the time it was made and will almost certainly be correct in a year. I make no promises about some arbitrary time in the future when eligius has a 200+ block buffer.
When exactly was the last time eligius had a buffer btw?
EDIT:
If you are specifically referring to Eligius at this point in time, then of course the expected value of a share for the next round could less than B/D (although the 'filo' reward order makes that tricky to describe exactly)
The filo order doesn't matter. As long as there is a positive probability that the share won't be paid on this block (which there is), and a positive probability that it
still won't be paid on each successive block (which there also is), then it follows that the expected value is less than B/D in finite time.
Even in your cherry picked example of a large buffer this is still mathematically true, though the difference is obviously negligible.