So back to my original statement then.
The pool hash rate reported is below the actual hash rate of the miners (like all pools)
However, since p2pool has 60x the number of LP's compared to other pools, the actual hash rate is quite a bit higher than reported - whereas with a normal pool it shouldn't be more than about 1% higher (I typically get <0.4% for GPU/BFL/ICA and ~0.7% for MMQ)
Yet in those ignored shares, if there is a valid Block, it will of course get through, so rather than the number of blocks being representative of the number of valid shares, it is in fact representative of the number of all work generated by all p2pool miners which is of course higher than the reported hash rate.
Work done during that time is counted as DOA shares, as cabin said:
One thing that might mitigate some of this is that p2pool does send a header that tells the miner to submit all work, even if it is considered dead right after a long poll. This work should show up in the number of DOA shares the pool reports. So we might be counting most of the hash rate that others pools miss right after a long poll.
So when people are reporting that p2pool is getting 110% luck consistently (which of course isn't possible - the probability of getting 110% over even 1 month is excessively unlikely) they are in fact not comparing the correct numbers.
Yes p2pool may well now be averaging 100% as expected, but those > 100% numbers are the result of not comparing the correct numbers
No, the probability of us getting >110% luck for a given month is 21% (assuming we should get 2.3 blocks/day and a month has 30 days).
In[23]:= expected = 2.3*30;
In[24]:= 1 - CDF[PoissonDistribution[expected], expected*1.1] // N
Out[24]= 0.214626
Gyver, not quite. Share have a flag that indicates whether the node that generated it got a stale share in the past, and from those, nodes can compute the stale share percentage and then the total hash rate with an expression like: unstale_hash_rate / (1 - pool_stale_proportion)
Is it just a flag or a counter? We have whole network stats for DOA and Orphans too, are there 2 flags/counters?
With a counter the stale estimation should be pretty good. If it's a flag, multiple stales between shares would be miscounted as an unique stale.
What might be underestimated too is the amount of work from nodes which stop mining after stale shares.
It's a flag, but P2Pool buffers the number of stale shares, setting the flag as many times as it needs to. Nodes leaving before getting a share with the flag set is a problem, yes, but I think it's a small one.