There's a huge variance involved when estimating your hashrate based on the number of p2pool shares you've produced in the last 24hrs. Yesterday my hashrate based on p2pool share production was 350mhs and today it's 129mh/s for a 5770 that cgminer says is averaging 200mh/s, I wouldn't rely on speed estimates based on p2pool share production unless it's over the last week or something. Also just looking at your stats page it says you have no incoming connections, you need to forward the p2pool port on your router to reduce stales.
As I usually say regarding cgminer, given an hour and about 400-800 MH/s, you should be within about 10%
(I think I've only once ever seen close to 10% after an hour)
If one of the stats guys ... organofcorti? ... wants to actually work out the expected % and given confidence levels (say 99%, 99.9% or even 99.99%) accurately (and provide an equation) then we could see how reasonable what I suggest is
But your figures of a variance of over ~75% and ~35% for 24 hours at 200MH/s seem rather ... unlikely ... to be share variance
(since they are diff 1 shares)
p2pool shares aren't diff 1 shares they're around 400-600.