Luck really has been awful on p2pool lately - a friend of mine's getting into mining with his dual 7970 gaming PC, got him to point them at p2pool.
Result = 15 hours of 1.3Ghash/s with nothing to show for it thanks to the orphaned block today
Needless to say, he's switched to standard PPS pools
Our overall luck since p2pool started though is horrific! Mathematically I make it something like a 2% chance of a pool doing this badly over that time period.
If it is something other than variance, it is probably the orphans. Compared to a big pool your average P2Pool user has:
- a slower, higher latency internet connection
- a stock, unoptimized bitcoind
- may not have any incoming bitcoind connections at all because port 8333 is blocked
These things put them at a disadvantage and may result in slightly more orphans, which just looks like slightly worse luck since I don't think we can track down all the orphans at the moment.