Lol it’s quite funny how y’all hyped this Bakkt so much and at the end it was nothing. The hype was too much in 2019 and a lot of people were even speculating an increase when Bakkt is launched, but at the end it made no single impact. Though I wasn’t surprised, because I knew that there is going to be Halving this year 2020, and I wasn’t expecting any bull run to take place sooner than the halving.
If it’s going to happen, it’s going to be after the Halving and not before it. On the day that Bakkt was launched I heard that it traded only seven Bitcoins. I can already see the price is moving up and after the Halving we should be expecting the next bull run I guess.
Topic: $175 billion just printed and the Bitcoin price goes down! (Read 717 times)
Jay Powell testimony in front of the HOUSE comitee today.
A few excerpts about FED REPO's:
Please appreciate the sarcasm rom the reporter.
McHenry asking about balance sheet issues.
Powell:
Business as usual, please disperse, nothing to see here.
The reality is , as o_e_l_e_o cynically suggested, is that whatever the FED does, the banks are leaning a little bit too much on the FED liquidity.
A few excerpts about FED REPO's:
Quote
In case you missed the point, Powell calls the Treasury bill purchases “technical” three times in his brief discussion. The point: This is not quantitative easing. It’s a technical move.
Please appreciate the sarcasm rom the reporter.
McHenry asking about balance sheet issues.
Quote
Powell: The expectation is we will continue bill purchases at least into the second quarter and repo activity into April...to build up reserves to a point where we don’t have to do this regularly.
Powell:
Quote
“As the underlying level of reserves rises due to our bill purchases, the need for repo will decline.”
Business as usual, please disperse, nothing to see here.
The reality is , as o_e_l_e_o cynically suggested, is that whatever the FED does, the banks are leaning a little bit too much on the FED liquidity.
I am not from USA so I am not really as knowledgeable as the rest of you on this subject but considering USA says they are having "the best financial time" since Trump started his term, could we just assume they were basically postponing the bad parts of economy for later and screwing it now?
Obviously, it went down as we can see from the chart, what we are judging right now is the big uptick in the balance sheet but if you look at it since December of last year it has been going down steadily very well and now its going up once again. I don't know which one is better but we can say that whatever has happened has reversed back in the past two months for sure. I hope american economy goes better but not too much better because a strong dollar is good but strongest ever means our currencies devalues.
Obviously, it went down as we can see from the chart, what we are judging right now is the big uptick in the balance sheet but if you look at it since December of last year it has been going down steadily very well and now its going up once again. I don't know which one is better but we can say that whatever has happened has reversed back in the past two months for sure. I hope american economy goes better but not too much better because a strong dollar is good but strongest ever means our currencies devalues.
I am not from the USA either, but I think this is exactly what they are doing.
They are screwing up the economy, using printer money to run larger and larger deficit, buying less and less growth and using the wrong metrics (SPX, NAPM jobs reports) to describe the economy, while the "real" underlying economy is in way worst condition.
Dollar is holding because other major currencies (EUR and GBP primarily) have they own problems and they are printing money too.
This is not going to end well. I don't know excactly how and when. But I know bitcoin will be an hedge against it.
where they will opt for Blockchain and Cryptocurrency technology
Don't be silly. The Fed is never going to abandon the dollar, something which they can control and print at will, for a decentralized cryptocurrency they have no say over. Doing so would be completely antithetical to their very purpose. The whole point of the Fed is to manage the money supply, stabilize prices, control interest rates and inflation, and so forth. They can't do any of that with a currency they don't control. They might as well close themselves down. 
According to the Fed, they have had proposals to combat the problem of negative interests, but there is no way they can put on makeup, I think it is now clear that they are reaching a point of despair where they will opt for Blockchain and Cryptocurrency technology, Because the debt is extreme, in the USA the debt is maintained, but it is not taken into account because the dollar is handled, and it must be recognized that there is still the hegemony of the dollar, but the numbers do not lie and are increasing the debt much more , it is clear that they must already look for solutions that are not for the normal ones of traditional economy.
In an article I read that in 1980 with 100USD a market with many products was made and that it was enough, nowadays if the market of the same magnitude is made it must be with 2500USD, inflation has somehow made up it by means of many strategies, it is obvious that when cash bills are printed inflation wreaks havoc, with Blockchain and cryptocurrencies this changes, the clearest example is Bitcoin, it has a deflationary economy and a finite supply limit, which obeys the Offer Law -Demand, and its value given to technology has been increasing, is considered digital gold.
In an article I read that in 1980 with 100USD a market with many products was made and that it was enough, nowadays if the market of the same magnitude is made it must be with 2500USD, inflation has somehow made up it by means of many strategies, it is obvious that when cash bills are printed inflation wreaks havoc, with Blockchain and cryptocurrencies this changes, the clearest example is Bitcoin, it has a deflationary economy and a finite supply limit, which obeys the Offer Law -Demand, and its value given to technology has been increasing, is considered digital gold.
but if you look at it since December of last year it has been going down steadily very well and now its going up once again. I don't know which one is better but we can say that whatever has happened has reversed back in the past two months for sure.
If you zoom out it becomes much more stark. Here is the Fed's balance sheet since 2003:
It was only towards the end of 2017 the Fed started to wind down and undo all the extra money they pumped in to the system during the global financial crisis. They had planned to continue on that trajectory for some time, but something they are not telling us about has happened which has forced them to start pumping new money back in. As you can see from the graph below, over the last month we have now seen the largest increase in their balance sheet in over 10 years, since the 2008 crisis.
The last time banks had this much of a liquidity problem, several folded altogether and we spent years picking up the pieces. As fillippone says, this can only end badly, but no one knows when.
I am not from USA so I am not really as knowledgeable as the rest of you on this subject but considering USA says they are having "the best financial time" since Trump started his term, could we just assume they were basically postponing the bad parts of economy for later and screwing it now?
Obviously, it went down as we can see from the chart, what we are judging right now is the big uptick in the balance sheet but if you look at it since December of last year it has been going down steadily very well and now its going up once again. I don't know which one is better but we can say that whatever has happened has reversed back in the past two months for sure. I hope american economy goes better but not too much better because a strong dollar is good but strongest ever means our currencies devalues.
Obviously, it went down as we can see from the chart, what we are judging right now is the big uptick in the balance sheet but if you look at it since December of last year it has been going down steadily very well and now its going up once again. I don't know which one is better but we can say that whatever has happened has reversed back in the past two months for sure. I hope american economy goes better but not too much better because a strong dollar is good but strongest ever means our currencies devalues.
I am not from the USA either, but I think this is exactly what they are doing.
They are screwing up the economy, using printer money to run larger and larger deficit, buying less and less growth and using the wrong metrics (SPX, NAPM jobs reports) to describe the economy, while the "real" underlying economy is in way worst condition.
Dollar is holding because other major currencies (EUR and GBP primarily) have they own problems and they are printing money too.
This is not going to end well. I don't know excactly how and when. But I know bitcoin will be an hedge against it.
I am not from USA so I am not really as knowledgeable as the rest of you on this subject but considering USA says they are having "the best financial time" since Trump started his term, could we just assume they were basically postponing the bad parts of economy for later and screwing it now?
Obviously, it went down as we can see from the chart, what we are judging right now is the big uptick in the balance sheet but if you look at it since December of last year it has been going down steadily very well and now its going up once again. I don't know which one is better but we can say that whatever has happened has reversed back in the past two months for sure. I hope american economy goes better but not too much better because a strong dollar is good but strongest ever means our currencies devalues.
Obviously, it went down as we can see from the chart, what we are judging right now is the big uptick in the balance sheet but if you look at it since December of last year it has been going down steadily very well and now its going up once again. I don't know which one is better but we can say that whatever has happened has reversed back in the past two months for sure. I hope american economy goes better but not too much better because a strong dollar is good but strongest ever means our currencies devalues.
No, I don't think this is a trap. because I see that this is the rule of the financial market. In which markets are beneficial, the whales will usually go there and eat their prey, after the food runs out, it will return to the starting point.
This is also a good signal to buy more bitcoin and hold, it is about to grow again!
This is also a good signal to buy more bitcoin and hold, it is about to grow again!
But it is very sad that the bitcoin price goes down, it is better if we see bitcoin with a constant and having a higher price. Isn't that beautiful to become more confident about bitcoin without uncertainty? Printing billions of money really affects its price because the demand is getting higher. They seize the moment when the bitcoin is enough for them to made it in fiat. Fiat currency is much able easy to use if they print a lot if it.
yet the economy is still on pace producing record unemployment numbers and stock prices.
This is a poor way to measure the economy. Sure, unemployment is down, but wages are stagnant and record numbers of people are working two jobs just to make ends meet. As discussed above, stock prices are up because they are being pumped up by the Fed.[/quote]
Realising the economy is not the stock market and the unemployment numbers is a feat of thinking into why is daily conveyed via mass media.
Stock market is pumped by QE, and effects are tangible only for those who. An afford to invest into it and are not trickling down toward the real economy.
Unemployment numbers are good, but they fail to intercept the slack labour force (underemployed) or those who drop out the actual labour force the self.
US economy is buying less than 3% GPD growth with massive budget deficits: coupled with QE this is a recipe for disaster when the fiscal stimulus become ineffective.
Why it is working? Because, as a blocks from HSBC told us, “dollar is the best of the bad bunch”: money is continuing to flow into the US economy because the others, in laymen’s terms, are worse.
Brace yourself, this cannot go on forever.
There are indicators of a recession, albeit not a large one by any stretch of the imagination
Indications are the next recession will be much worse than 2008. Banks are currently in a much worse position than they were in 2008, there is barely any room to cut interest rates without going negative, and the national debt has skyrocketed meaning any QE package will be limited.yet the economy is still on pace producing record unemployment numbers and stock prices.
This is a poor way to measure the economy. Sure, unemployment is down, but wages are stagnant and record numbers of people are working two jobs just to make ends meet. As discussed above, stock prices are up because they are being pumped up by the Fed.healthy economy with stocks rising and Bitcoin not rising is a sign to jump ship.
The economy is not healthy and bitcoin prices don't follow the economy anyway. 
175 billion dollars is peanuts. 
Such small amount won't change anything in the US economy or in the global economy.
By the way,the bitcoin price recovered from the 5% nose dive,so I think it's wrong to search for a correlation between the bitcoin price and how many billions were printed by FED.
There's no bear trap and Bakkt won't change anything.
$ 175m is a large number but people often mistakenly think that it was printed to pump the price of bitcoin. This is one of the big mistakes of many people. they can use that USDT to trade with alts or buy or sell exchange rates for more profit. Generally we should not rely on such signals to predict the value of bitcoin, which is completely unreasonable.Such small amount won't change anything in the US economy or in the global economy.
By the way,the bitcoin price recovered from the 5% nose dive,so I think it's wrong to search for a correlation between the bitcoin price and how many billions were printed by FED.
There's no bear trap and Bakkt won't change anything.
3 hours ago, for example, more than 6000 bitcoins were transferred to Okex and Bitfinex but its price remained at a strong support level of $ 7k150 and remained unaffected.
so the conclusion is that the price of bitcoin will be influenced by world news or only influenced by the strong buying or selling force of the crowd.
The U.S stock market is hitting record highs with the economy booming yet Bitcoin is still not rising. We recovered from the dip yesterday slightly but still down which is surprising given Bitcoin's current state. This uncovers an unfortunate reality that people still are turned off from the idea of investing in Bitcoin and are not using it as an alternative to precious metal investments or stock investments. There are indicators of a recession, albeit not a large one by any stretch of the imagination, yet the economy is still on pace producing record unemployment numbers and stock prices. Even with ALL of this considered, Bitcoin is still down.
I get most of us are playing the long waiting game here, but to the ordinary investor who is dabbling in Bitcoin for the first time, a healthy economy with stocks rising and Bitcoin not rising is a sign to jump ship.
I get most of us are playing the long waiting game here, but to the ordinary investor who is dabbling in Bitcoin for the first time, a healthy economy with stocks rising and Bitcoin not rising is a sign to jump ship.
This is whi it is called QE4: 4 stands for "4ever"
Lol. The Fed's balance sheet has never returned to pre-2008 levels, and we are now seeing the most rapid increases since 2008 as well. Are we sure QE ever stopped? 
Still, S&P 500 company earnings and profits are down, and are projected to decrease further this quarter. Production is down, manufacturing is down, growth is down, and yet stocks prices are up, almost exactly matching this "not QE". At this point it doesn't really matter if we are calling it QE or not. It is pushing down bond yields, and so money is flowing elsewhere. One way or another this "not QE" will stop, and when it does, stocks will crash.
-snip-
These overnight repos can't really be called that anymore, since they seem to have turned in to week or even month long repos. As you show, the balance sheet is continuing to increase rapidly, shows no signs of stopping, and the suggestions coming from the Fed are that even more action may be required.Banks are borrowing more and more money and aren't paying it back like they are supposed to. There's something going on that they aren't telling us, and it's not good.
Stock market need to go higher for a variety of reasons.
Draw the SPX vs the Fed Balance Sheet and you see a very suspicious correlation.
Yes, Correlation is not causation, but here there is a logical link between the thwos.
Hence, QE cannot be stopped.
This is why it is called QE4: 4 stands for "4ever"
-snip-
These overnight repos can't really be called that anymore, since they seem to have turned in to week or even month long repos. As you show, the balance sheet is continuing to increase rapidly, shows no signs of stopping, and the suggestions coming from the Fed are that even more action may be required.Banks are borrowing more and more money and aren't paying it back like they are supposed to. There's something going on that they aren't telling us, and it's not good.
at first I even thought prices would go up directly when usdt was printed at the past from bitfinex ; but now i am sure that effect appear after some weeks at latest or little of months ; if everyone dump his bitcoin the prices will have some obstacle . but i think prices can stable in the future and rise constanly
It is normal of digital currencies to face fluctuations and this is what they are famous for. Bitcoin is the most volatile crypto coin that gets affected by every big movement but this does not imply that the coin is losing its value. The halving is not very far from us and we can expect more decrease in values before it. But thins will change drastically afterwards. Bitcoin is going to skyrocket in 2020.at first I even thought prices would go up directly when usdt was printed at the past from bitfinex ; but now i am sure that effect appear after some weeks at latest or little of months ; if everyone dump his bitcoin the prices will have some obstacle . but i think prices can stable in the future and rise constanly
It is normal of digital currencies to face fluctuations and this is what they are famous for. Bitcoin is the most volatile crypto coin that gets affected by every big movement but this does not imply that the coin is losing its value. The halving is not very far from us and we can expect more decrease in values before it. But thins will change drastically afterwards. Bitcoin is going to skyrocket in 2020. 
at first I even thought prices would go up directly when usdt was printed at the past from bitfinex ; but now i am sure that effect appear after some weeks at latest or little of months ; if everyone dump his bitcoin the prices will have some obstacle . but i think prices can stable in the future and rise constanly
Just a little update.
Straight from ZH.
Fed Reveals When The Next Repo Crisis May Strike
And here, a passage that could be exactely in o_e_l_e_o interptetation:
Straight from ZH.
Fed Reveals When The Next Repo Crisis May Strike
Quote
In discussing the pace of Treasury bill purchases, many participants supported a relatively rapid pace to boost reserve levels quickly, while others supported a more moderate pace of purchases. Participants generally judged that Treasury bill purchases and the associated increase in reserves would, over time, result in a gradual reduction in the need for repo operations.
And here, a passage that could be exactely in o_e_l_e_o interptetation:
Quote
Most participants preferred not to wait until the October 29–30 FOMC meeting to issue a public statement regarding the planned Treasury bill purchases and repo operations. They noted that releasing a statement before the October 29–30 FOMC meeting would help reinforce the point that these actions were technical and not intended to affect the stance of policy. In addition, a few participants remarked that an earlier release would allow the Desk to begin boosting the level of reserves sooner.
A couple of participants, however, wanted to wait until the October 29–30 FOMC meeting to announce the plan so as not to surprise market participants or lead them to infer that the Committee regarded the situation as dire and thus requiring immediate action.
A couple of participants, however, wanted to wait until the October 29–30 FOMC meeting to announce the plan so as not to surprise market participants or lead them to infer that the Committee regarded the situation as dire and thus requiring immediate action.
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