Topic: 189% ROI in USD throughout 2019 -- A free, open-source strategy... (Read 338 times)

Hi everyone following this thread... I just wanted to give you a quick update about the Bull-run Rider strategy.

As you may have noticed, there haven't been many opportunities for jumping on a USDT-BTC rally since late August, so the strategy hasn't been trading during this time.

The good news is that we have released the Weak-hands buster, a strategy based in BTC designed for hardcore bitcoin hodlers. The strategy improves on the hodling strategy by selling bitcoin as price starts to fall only to re-buy MORE bitcoin at a lower price. We made a 26% profit last week as bitcoin crashed from +$10,000 to less than $8,000.

By the way, there's a piece in Hacker Noon covering this strategy today.

This strategy is complementary to the first one. When using both, you are trading both the uptrends and downtrends of bitcoin, making money either way.

I guess the ongoing fall of bitcoin (happening as I write) will make a few people in this thread have second thoughts about their opinions regarding trading with USD as the base asset? As I pointed, this strategy made 189% ROI since Jan 1st. That's cash in the pocket.

BTW, the BTC strategy I've been promising to release just made 26.85% in BTC in this single fall. Take a look:

Just a quick note to let everybody know that the repository name for this strategy has changed. You may now find it here.

Also, we've open-sourced a BTC strategy too... I will introduce it on a new thread, but if you are curious you can find it in the same Github Organization.

Hello! I'm back with yet more good news…

First of all, we've open-sourced the strategy independently of the platform it runs on.

This is an open-source strategy me and a group of friends are developing. The strategy is in constant evolution, as we come up with ideas to improve it on a regular basis.

It may be used as a fully automated trading system template within the Superalgos Desktop App or you may use it to learn or to trade manually, simply by implementing the strategy's rules in your usual manual trading. You may also use the app for testing ideas, for backtesting and paper-trading (signals!), and still live-trade manually if you wish.

You may download the strategy and find more details on the Github repository. And remember, we offer strategies for educational purposes only. If you decide to use this information to trade live, you are doing so at your own risk.

And now, the second piece of good news… performance has skyrocketed after a few changes we made on the way we manage take profits and stops. We now let trades ride without cutting them short. There were a few other minor modifications done over the last week which helped filter out fails, improving overall performance.

Current Performance in Backtests:

Year:	2019	2018	2017
Trades:	7	3	6
Hits:	7	1	4
Fails:	0	2	2
ROI:	189%	16.5%	44.5%

As you can see, the strategy is conservative during 2017 and 2018, as it is optimized for current market conditions... that is why it performs better in 2019 than in 2017.

Strategy Goal:

Catching big market moves, with a conservative approach to minimize risk.

Approach:

We split the goal in two.

1. We focus on potentially big market moves, therefore, the strategy will be optimized for bull runs.

2. We will take the clearest and most promising opportunities only. We will pass on everything else.

Trading idea:

Identify breakouts of the Bollinger Bands (price going above the upper deviation band). Use %Bandwidth indicator to assess momentum and Bollinger Bands moving average to filter out late entries.

I will leave you with a screenshot of the most profitable trade and share the rest of the trades later on (notice there is no take profit target!):

I had promised before to show the effects of the optimization I did recently, by which I managed to raise ROI from 78% to 114% in USD, during 2019. This is what happened:

FIRST:

I got a new good trade that I had missed before, on February 18:




SECOND:

Remember this series of trades taking profit along the bull run back in mid-June?




Well, by being a little less aggressive taking profits, I managed to make the trade more efficient. Now, there is a single trade, with better ROI, and paying less on transaction fees:





The effects of managing take profit more loosely on the rest of the strategy were positive in general. You will see...

THIRD:

This other trade was preceded by a fail (if you pay attention to the movement in the GIF, you will see a small red triangle signaling a failed trade to the left of the good trade marked with a green triangle). The reason for the fail was that a choppy market hit the stop too soon:




So I run a few tests, analyzing the results in the rest of the strategy, and decided to lower my stops a further 0.5% to 2.5%. This helped this trade as well as other trades. What happened in this particular case is that the entry signal that ended up in a fail before is now the entry signal for the main trade, which went up from 14.77% ROI to 17.97% ROI, and saved me from a fail at the same time (which would loose 3%, factoring fees):




FOURTH:

This case is similar to the previous one, and shows the improvement more clearly. Same deal, one market move was divided in three trades, the first of which was a fail, due to hitting the stop too early:




So, with the lower stop and looser take profit management, I ended up with a single trade resulting in a 6% ROI and eliminating the original fail:




Well... that's it for now, but I see a lot of room for improvement. Its not that hard to find better solutions and optimizations, so I'm sure this strategy will improve with time.

Also, I've been working on a BTC-based strategy to accumulate bitcoin. I'm impressed with how good it's going. I will run a few more tests and eventually come back to share it here...

The answer of my question available on each of your posts
So you are intentionally adding this part at every your post to bring the attention to your platform.

Awesome. I will definitely try the Superalgos Desktop App. Will keep an eye on this thread. How about social media: Twitter, Facebook, telegram etc, are you on any of those?  Wish I could be notified when you are ready with your setup. I have bookmarked this thread already.

Edit: saw your telegram group. Will join it later

Sorry you feel that way. Yes, I'm enthusiastic about the platform, which is free to use and an open-source community effort. We just like sharing mate. I hope that doesn't cause you any troubles.

I'm not bumping the thread carelessly, just answering legit questions from people that want to learn and are interested in trading. The information and tips I'm posting are not old. I'm simply trying to add value to the community here. This is how I'm doing that:

1. Sharing some trading insight I have acquired from generous people in other communities.

2. Sharing a trading strategy I've been working on lately, which I've just set up to trade live.

3. Sharing info about the trading bots platform I use (which I helped develop, and with which my relationship was fully disclosed since the original post).

4. Thoughtfully and respectfully answering any questions and feedback, just like I'm doing with you now.

I see this is an attempt from OP to advertise his platform

This is not the right way buddy,you can open your ANN and look for the legit people to respond rather than bumping this thread with old useless profits made.

The app is built for non-coding traders. So, you are not expected to be a programmer to be able to use the app, use existing strategies and even create your own strategies.

To use a strategy, you just need to install the app following written instructions in the README file, import one of the strategies that come with the software (the one I'm showing here, for instance), run a simulation (click of a button) to understand what the strategy does, connect to the exchange using your API key, and start trading live fro your own machine (start with little money first, until you are certain everything is working good).

Then, if you want to build your own strategies, they are built following a trading framework in which you take on the trading process in four stages: TRIGGER > OPEN > MANAGE > CLOSE.

In the TRIGGER stage, you analyze the market to determine which strategy you wish to use.

In the OPEN stage, you define the specific conditions in which you wish to take a position.

In the MANAGE stage, you manage your stop and take profit target as the trade evolves.

In the CLOSE stage, you keep your trading log and decide on some execution parameters.

The framework is fully described in this article recently published on Hacker Noon: Developing Your Own Trading System: A Step by Step Logical Guide. This framework is implemented in the Superalgos Protocol, a trading protocol that governs how strategies are described, so that all sorts of strategies may follow the same framework. This allows strategies to be portable (among other things), thus easily shareable (in a text file, that apps using the protocol may read, import and use).

Now, I guess your next question is... how do I do all that?

Well, the app provides a visual environment in which you may see the charts, and also what we call the Designer. The charts, you are familiar with, I'm sure. The Designer is the interface for creating strategies. It presents each of the stages mentioned above with a number of elements in each stage, in a hierarchical structure resembling a mind-map.

Traders need to define the rules to trigger on and trigger off each strategy, to take a position, to manage take profit targets and stops.

The protocol calls these sets of rules situations, in the sense that you are trying to determine what is going on with the market and, if the 'situation' is right, certain actions or events should be triggered.

In other words, you define situations in which you wish a certain event to happen (i.e.: trigger on the strategy, take a position, etc.) and each situation is described as a set of conditions that need to be met in order for the event to be triggered.



The type of statements you will use to define conditions need to evaluate to true or false.

For example:


In the example above, conditions A and B are comparison statements that may evaluate either true or false. In the case both would evaluate true then Situation 1 would be true as well.

Those are the kinds of statements you use to define conditions for triggering a strategy, taking a position, managing stops and take profit targets, etc. If you are a trader, then it will be quite intuitive. If you know little about trading, then you will need to learn a bit about trading logic (and the framework article is a very good start).

There is a learning curve to go through, because the app is quite revolutionary in the sense that there aren't any other apps out there that offer non-coders the flexibility to create all sort of strategies. But it's not hard to learn. You need to read the framework article to understand the conceptual framework. Then, the app's README file provides all the details as of how to install and use the app.

And of course, the Telegram Community is very welcoming of new users and will always try to help get you up and running, and will even share strategies with you.

Follow the links on my signature to get started...

 But does this require traders with knowledge of code? I find it quite complicated for someone like me.
I'm not really tech-savvy, nor is it clear about how to handle the code. It's quite complicated and confusing, will someone help me if I want to edit the algorithm?

I got some really good news for those of you following this thread:

FIRST:

I spent the last couple of days refining this strategy, with amazing results. I kept the trading idea intact: detecting breakouts using the Bollinger band and %B indicators. What I changed (with surprising results) is the way I was taking profits. The previous version of the strategy was a bit more aggressive taking profits, in an attempt to secure earnings, at the expense of cutting a few trades short. The problem with that approach is that the strategy would trigger mediocre or even bad trades during the remaining segment of the market move, costing more on transaction fees and causing losses.

By taking profits less aggressively and letting trades run (always with a tight stop), I ended up with fewer, more profitable trades. I will show some comparisons later on so that you may see the difference in the approach to taking profit and the impact it had on a few trades.

The result is that ROI went up to 114% in the same period of time, with a total of 18 trades during 2019, of which 12 were hits and 6 fails (66.67% hit ratio).

SECOND:

I finished the setup of a virtual machine to let the bots run 24/7 in a stable environment and the new version of strategy is now trading live (with test kind of sizes: 10 USD). I will keep you posted with actual trades as soon as they come!

THIRD:

I will be working on a reversed, complementary strategy that bitcoin hardcore believers will love. I will be selling BTC when price starts dropping only to buy BTC back when price stabilizes. When I buy back BTC, I will be able to buy more BTC for the same money (as I'm buying cheaper), so I will be increasing my bitcoin holding with every good trade. This will also allow me to trade during downtrends, which the original strategy doesn't do much, so I will be trading more, catching more opportunities in the same period.

I will be feeding this news to the first post so that newcomers may better understand the thread, and updating the title thread accordingly.

And I'll leave you with an image of final results:

Ok... we finally got the latest trade, which happened on September, 2nd.




It's a small trade happening within the context of the current consolidation, as you can see in the following image:

I'm getting closer to the present time... this opportunity happened on August 2nd. Not a big move, and the trade was cut in three. The first piece closed at a loss, while the other two recovered the loss and made a small profit.

With this next trade, the take profit target is hit almost at the top of the move! However, right after ripping a 14% profit I lost 2.5% in what could have been a continuation of the move...

even for a beginner can get 100% roi if buying BTC at a price of 5000 USD a few months ago,
or buy BTC at the current price of 10,000 USD, I'm sure 80% ROI will be held until the end of the year,
market is positive bullish, any strategy if we continue to hold then I'm sure ROI can be more than 80%.

What you may be failing to see is that, if bitcoin crashes tomorrow, and goes back to $3,500, a holder would break even, while someone that has actively traded and accrued 78% ROI until today, will still enjoy 78% profits tomorrow. Similarly, if the market crashes beyond $3,500, holders would be at a loss.

The bottom line is that you haven't really realized any profits until you actually either spend your bitcoin for goods or services, or you cash out your bitcoin to an asset that can (to some extent) guarantee a similar value in the future.

I see why holders may not be enticed to trade with USD as the base asset... For those of you hardcore bitcoin holders, I will show you in a different thread how you may increase your bitcoin holding by selling BTC when price starts dropping to later re-buy (more) BTC at a cheaper price.

Same thing goes for money, even if you cash out your btc into cash it is meaningless until you trade that cash for goods and services.  That is what many hoarders fail to realize, cash means nothing if you never spend it on something to enjoy.

This is the next big trade in the series. Another case of exit by hitting a stop at a profit. Notice how the take profit target at stage 3 was narrowly missed... (boomer!)

If you bought Bitcoins last February when Bitcoin is being traded at $3,500 you already hit 300% to profit without doing anything just hodling. Even if by increments of 10% profits like July 30 and sell after a week that's almost 20%, same thing happened when price went down to $9,500 you can sell it now at $10,300 then wait for another dip.