Topic: 189% ROI in USD throughout 2019 -- A free, open-source strategy... - page 2. (Read 338 times)

You are right, if someone are a long term holder it is surely the ROI is more than 100%, even for a day trader you can earn profit with
 less than a week for more than 100%, but of course everything in trading there is always investment involved, there's no such thing
is free nowadays.

Yes, you require insight for trading. There is no such thing as a free meal in this world. You do need to invest time to learn a bit. Even if you are going to run a shared strategy, you should at least understand what it does and how.

The platform doesn't perform magic tricks. It does what you tell it to do. Strategies are defined with simple instructions; forms of conditional statements such as "if this happens, then do this". For instance, "if the candle closes above the Bollinger band moving average for two consecutive periods, then trigger on this strategy". In the language of the platform that would look something like this:


So yes, there is a learning curve for using the platform as well, if you are going to build your own strategies, but it's not hard at all... there are video tutorials and people willing to help. If you are going to use existing strategies is just a drag & drop of the strategy and off you go.

The good thing about Superalgos is that the community is being built around people who are willing to share knowledge and insight, something very rare in trading, and the actual purpose of the project.

We wish to challenge the status quo in which trading technology is developed in silos with an open-source alternative that people the world over may use do their work and to collaborate with other people while they do it.

I agree with all you've said, with nuances...

Holding bitcoin during 2019 would have yielded +300%. However, holding during 2018 would have lost you +400%.

Holding is a form of passive investment while trading is a form of active investment. When holding, you make a long-term bet with a binary possible outcome. You were either right and you made money long-term, or you were wrong and you lost money long-term. When trading you split the risk into many different bets. You know that you will be wrong probably half to the time, so the trick is that when you are right, you make more money than what you lose when you are wrong.

They are both valid approaches, as can be verified by how managers chose to allocate capital to different strategies: capitalization of passive investments tend to be similar to that of active investments (around 50% - 50%, with periodic fluctuations).

One of our goals as a project is to reduce the anguish and stress of trading. We think traders should only focus on the fun, creative side of trading, which is designing strategies, trying to figure out the market. The repetitive task of monitoring the market and executing trades should be left for algorithms to perform. That way, traders may put emotions aside and not be emotionally involved with every single trade. Of course, to a certain extent, the same as with holding (every time bitcoin crashes, holders have a hard time any way).

Another goal is to reduce time spent by traders staring at the screen, with all the negative health consequences that may have. I, for instance, built this strategy in 20 to 30 hours. It was fun... like a strategy game, pardon the pun. I will set it up to trade live on a virtual machine in the cloud and let it run for a few months without touching it. Then will spend a few more hours every once in a while trying to improve it and update to market conditions. It's not stressful at all... on the contrary... I take it as a positive challenge... you learn a few things about finance, the markets, investments, etc. Can't harm anyone...

It seems like I missed a few good questions the last time I replied... sorry for that:


The Superalgos Desktop App is free (for ever) and is open-source. You download the app, no questions asked. You don't even need to identify yourself, register or give your email address or anything else. You run the platform on your machine and never need to trust any third party with your funds (which stay at the exchange), your API Keys (which stay in your machine) or your Strategies (which you may chose to share with friends, partners or the community, or not).

I will briefly explain why we are doing this (all details on the website):

Superalgos is an open-source project with a long-term vision of a Collective Trading Intelligence at the service of all people. At this early stage we wish to empower traders with free, open-source tools that enable full trading automation and collaboration. This stage will see the growth of the Community and culture of cooperation in trading—an essential trait that will set the foundations for a Collective Trading Intelligence.

Developing tools that will help traders automate their work and collaborate while doing so is the very first step in the process of building such intelligence. That is why strategies are built following a trading protocol, so that strategies are portable and may be seamlessly shared, as a whole or even in pieces.

The software is at an early stage of development, pre-released in alpha stage. It is fully usable but still has some limitations, for example, only the USDT-BTC market is available at this point in time. It is not certified, but the code is open for any developer to review, just like any other piece of open-source software.

This is a particular case in which a single market move was split into three trades, due to take profit phase 4 kicking in early on in the first two trades. In this strategy, phase 4 puts the take profit target at the level of the upper Bollinger band deviation. The third trade, however, ended at the stop, which is raised parallel to the moving average as the trade develops. The value given below for Take Position Rate corresponds to the first trade, while the Exit Rate is the rate of the last trade in the sequence (for brevity). ROI is the sum of the ROI of each trade.

I'm (as we speak) setting up a Virtual Machine on the cloud to start trading live with this strategy 24/7 (actual trading is automated by the software). When it's up and running, I will be posting actual live trades and comparing them with simulation trades, to see how reality fits in the simulation. I've already tested it in my local machine and seems to work pretty close to the simulation (there is slippage and slight delays when actually placing orders and getting the orders filled at the exchange, so it is not exactly as in the simulation, which is normal and to be expected).

I'm not doing any YouTube videos... Anyone wanting to see the strategy in action may download (for free, it's open source) and get started with the Superalgos Desktop App. This strategy comes along with the software as an example. Once you are up and running with the app, you simply drag the strategy and drop it in the Designer, and then run a simulation... Then you will see all of the trades during 2019 plotted right on top of the charts, just like I'm showing you guys with these images...

Ofcourse you are right but only if you hold long-term and hope that the price of Bitcoin continues to go up. Unfortunately, no one i know can predict the price of Bitcoin with certainty..Price could go either way long-term. So it's quite risky to invest if you can't predict how things will turn out in the future. Just invest what you can afford to lose.

Could you share your live trade on youtube or something? Or do you do that already?

Certainly. I will catch up with the present time during the next few days... just need to grab the appropriate screens and make the posts. I just wanted to show the main trades starting with a reasonably long data set, as it is important that the strategy performs well for a certain period of time... Bear with me, please... I'll get there...


I wouldn't use the same strategy during a bear market. I would design a new one for a bear market. No single strategy can perform well in all sorts of conditions. What you do is identify the long term trend and design any number of complementary strategies that would fit the overall trend. This strategy wouldn't even perform well during the 2017 bull run. The market back then was completely different to what we are seeing in 2019, even when it was a massive bull run. Back then it was a lot more choppy... it seems like the overall psychology was a lot more volatile / sensitive / hesitant. In particular during the last stretch, after September, when it started going exponential. If I backtest this particular strategy in 2017 what happens is that my stops a triggered a lot more often. I'm using 2% stops and that works well in 2019, but back in 2017 I would have needed to double that (which would be a lot more risky). The market seems more mature now... volatility is good, and market moves are more consistent.

So, what I do is try to optimize the strategy for certain market conditions, but... I also try to build in protections so that the strategy doesn't trade much or is more restrained when the market turns against the trend. The optimum thing to do may be to have a complementary strategy for when the market turns, so that the first one stops trading and the second one kicks in.

Also, I wouldn't encourage non-traders to go out and start using any strategy, not mine or anyone else's. If you are going to start trading, you'd better have an understanding of what you are doing, otherwise, you are a lot more likely to loose money than to make money. What I would encourage people to do is to start learning a bit about trading, start playing around with a trading automation platform like the one we just released, start building strategies as you learn from others in an open community, and have fun!

In the end, it's a lot like a strategy game. Everything happens in a visual environment...

You look at the charts and try to use whatever Technical Analysis knowledge you may have (if any) to set the conditions for taking a position, stops and take profit. Then you run a simulation and see the results, right there on the charts, like I'm showing with these screen grabs.

So you take a closer look and see what can be improved in your set of conditions so that a number of trades in a certain period of time may perform better. And so it goes... you go back and forth, trying new stuff, and at some point it starts making sense.

You see that you would have made a profit, and know that if you keep tweaking the strategy you may improve it even more. Then you run it over a longer period of time. Then you let it run for some time with live market data (paper-trading, without actual money)... to see if it catches the right opportunities in the current market. And once you feel comfortable the strategy is somewhat safe, you start trading live with small cash... as small as the exchange would allow (10 bucks is fine). At some point you will feel it is safe enough to increment the allocated capital, and then you are really trading...

The good thing about this approach is that you only focus on the fun and creative part of trading, which is building the strategies... The actual trading, that is, the repetitive task of monitoring the market, placing the orders and so on is done by the platform / bots, 24/7. So you just need to watch it every once in a while and see how things are going...

Anyway, this is my particular approach... Other people with a different insight may have a different view...

Ok... the next trade...

As you can see, this time the exit was due to the stop being hit, but still at a profit, as the platform allows to manage stops and take profit dynamically. The red horizontal lines below each candle represent the stop at which the trade would be closed if hit. The green horizontal lines above the candles represent the take profit targets. As you see, both are moved upwards as the trade develops. In the case of the stop, I try to keep it tight, allowing a margin for average volatility, following the moving average. In the case of take profit, I'm managing it in 4 different phases, first giving a lot of headroom to allow for big market moves, and then moving it closer to the upper deviation of the Bollinger band.

That's right, if trading in  short term requires better insight and time, we can't rely on a platform like as intended @OP means because it's just a logical calculation like mathematics. So what is explained by @OP I think it is only intended for those who want to hold a long term, judging from 2 pictures above shared by @OP that to get ROI requires quite a long time.

Hm. If anyone held throughtout 2019, and didn't do anything at all, they would have made over 200% from the 3k low and today at 10500++.

All that time saved, all that anguish saved. More time to actually do things and learn, more experience, more skills.

Not knocking trading, but it is definitely not for most people. Keep your charting current and make your predictions ahead of time then we see how good you really are.

If the product is really useful and we want to use it, do we have to provide KYC?
Or how much do we pay for a month of use? and is the software certified as clean and virus free?

That's true, that's a long term investment strategy and it always works,  if you're an investor who opted for safe investment hodling long term is a good option but it should not only Bitcoin, you should add more coins and not only concentrate in Bitcoin, there were times that some coins are in their bullish period.

But if you are an aggressive investor, the market is wide for you you can profit in the short term by following and trading coins in the market, I'm not into short term trading but some of my friends make a living out of it, but it needs time and good insight to pick the right coin to trade.

Is there any chance that you can post more recent trading success though? The trading success that you posted was like 4 months ago. It would be better if you can post recent as it will really attract mid level traders, IMHO.

Will try to follow this thread and see how it goes. Will be interested to see the simulation vs actual trades. Certainly, every trading is no guarantee for a success that's why we really need to learn to mitigate and should have entry/exit plans.

I would say you all have valid points.

Holding BTC throughout 2019 would have yielded +300% ROI. True. But... like some of you hinted, holding BTC in 2018 would have lost you almost 500%.

Holding is a completely different game than trading. When holding, you are playing the very long game... while putting all your eggs in the same or, hopefully, a number of baskets... for good. Some would argue that is risky, as you are betting all (or a big chunk of) your capital on a long term outcome.

I'm a holder myself too, and I try to diversify to spread risk. And also, part of my capital I use it for trading, both for fun, and to increase capital. Trading is not without risk either. You are making small bets frequently, and you will be wrong many times. In fact, you will be wrong probably around half of the time. The trick is to make enough money when you are right to compensate for when you are wrong, and hopefully make a profit.

The bottom line is, if you have any money at all, you can always loose it, so risk is always present. It's up to you how to try to protect your capital...

What I can say to you is that, in trading, the first and foremost rule is PRESERVING CAPITAL, while the goal is INCREASING it.

And yes, there is no guarantee the strategy will keep delivering that kind of ROI in the future, like someone fairly pointed out. That risk is part of the game. So, what you do, is keep improving your strategy regularly, adapting it to new market conditions, and even developing new strategies to complement.

If you are a hardcore Bitcoin believer (like many of us here), you would likely be interested in trading with Bitcoin as your base asset. That means you would do the opposite to what I will be showing in this thread. You would sell BTC when BTC price starts to fall to buy BTC back when price stabilizes at a lower rate. That way, you increase your BTC holding with every market slide by buying more BTC with the same capital, as you are buying cheaper than what you sold for. Isn't that beautiful? Instead of suffering every time BTC falls, you take a cut off the market for your own pockets. I will discuss that kind of strategy later on, on a different thread.

And, one final clarification: what you are seeing here is based on a simulation (backtest) over historic data. I built this strategy last week and I'm going to start trading live with it in the next few days, as soon as I set up a machine in the cloud for the bots to trade 24/7... When I do, I will show you actual live trades and compare them with the simulation.

For the time being, I will leave you with...

You are right, but there is a but. My sub $4000 entry points at today's prices have a virtual ROI of 155%, BUT the thing here is that virtual ROI is meaningless if you don't actually sell or spend any of these coins.

OP has bought and sold repeatedly to capture the profits. It's definitely more risky than simply hodling your coins through a bull run, but the Bitcoin bull that I am will also hold during the crash afterwards down to its new bottom.

People however shouldn't focus too much on that 78% ROI that is pointed out by OP because it just as easily could have been way less. There is always a factor of unpredictability that can work against you.

I don't think that's what OP meant. You have to trade to earn money.

If you simply hold the bitcoin without doing any trading then you could actually turns upto into an 200% ROI investment.

Am I right guys?

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POST UPDATE Note: This strategy is available in the Superalgos/Strategy-USDT-BullRunRider Github repository for everyone to see / download / use.

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This is an open-source strategy me and a group of friends are developing. The strategy is in constant evolution, as we come up with ideas to improve it on a regular basis.

It may be used as a fully automated trading system template within the Superalgos Desktop App or you may use it to learn or to trade manually, simply by implementing the strategy's rules in your usual manual trading. You may also use the app for testing ideas, for backtesting and paper-trading (signals!), and still live-trade manually if you wish.

You may download the strategy and find more details on the Github repository. And remember, we offer strategies for educational purposes only. If you decide to use this information to trade live, you are doing so at your own risk.

Current Performance in Backtests:

Year:	2019	2018	2017
Trades:	7	3	6
Hits:	7	1	4
Fails:	0	2	2
ROI*:	189%	16.5%	44.5%

[ * ] The strategy starts with an initial capital and reinvests accumulated profits in every trade. ROI is calculated over the initial capital.

As you can see, the strategy is conservative during 2017 and 2018, as it is optimized for current market conditions. That is why it performs better in 2019 than in 2017's bull run.

Strategy Goal:

Catching big market moves, with a conservative approach to minimize risk.

Approach:

We split the goal in two.

1. We focus on potentially big market moves, therefore, the strategy will be optimized for bull runs.

2. We will take the clearest and most promising opportunities only. We will pass on everything else.

Trading idea:

Identify breakouts of the Bollinger Bands (price going above the upper deviation band). Use %Bandwidth indicator to assess momentum and Bollinger Bands moving average to filter out late entries.

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ORIGINAL POST

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I'm sharing a strategy we call the Bull Run Rider—check my signature below if you want it.

It's based on the BTC-USDT pair, standing in USDT and running on the 1 hr time period.

This strategy is designed for riding the current bull run. It is currently making 78% ROI in simulations. Even before April 1st, before the bitcoin bull run started, the strategy was making a small profit.

ASSUMPTIONS: The simulation takes into account Poloniex 0.25% taker fees and 0.1% slippage in all orders.

I'm going to show you the bigger trades in a sequence of images grabbed from the Superalgos Desktop App. You can see consolidated results in the panel slightly to the left of each trade. I will show the final results on the last image.



Full disclosure: I'm using Superalgos to automate my trading, a trading platform I helped develop.