Topic: 2 Scenarios resulting from SD: Bearish vs. Turbo Bearish with Lasers on Top - page 2. (Read 3486 times)

Eh, perhaps I'd like some fiat, but the idea that everyone will is silly, I agree.

Exactly.

This idea has been almost the sole reason for the sudden price drop, and I think that's simply not the case.

Why do people with shares in SD suddenly feel compelled to turn them into fiat?

SD is actually irrelevant. What happened is that I posted an ask a couple of bucks above the current bid, expecting to get it overnight and then buy back in ten bucks lower. This caused the price to go straight down.

That's the way my world works.

Gentlemen may I introduce to you the very rare and deadly: Ursus laserus vorheesae!
They only show in times of extreme bullish dispair and are always out for an easy catch.

Favorite prey: Pigs and uncautious bulls straying off to far from the herd.
Did everybody see the burning stables in the background?

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

Clearly flying turbo bulls are shining lasers into the bears' eyes.

Bears fail again.

In case anyone is wondering where the OP's title came from:


My guess is simply a 3 way split between

1) those who receive their coins and immediately sell them...causing a short term downward price spike - negative for price

2) those who receive their coins and immediately buy other stock with stable returns (ASICminer seems top choice in this regard)...causing a short term spike in AM share price - negative for price

3) those who take their coins and do nothing - neutral for price

Being as objective as I possibly can, I do not see anything but a price drop on the horizon. The severity of the price drop will depend on the proportion of 1,2, and 3 out of the 150K BTC SD sales proceeds. I should also add that if the price drop is severe enough, it could trigger another bear market selloff like the one that took us to 66...only this time it may go lower

I'm hoping for an over-reaction by myopic trigger-happy bears or weak-minded thinkers, but most people will probably see this for what it is: a long-term non-event.

Edit: Furthermore, in dollar terms, this is an 8 figure deal. The fact that such a large deal was done IN BITCOIN is great.

It's the continuation of the bearish trend following the bull trap's conclusion.

Also, where's the honey?

Beartrap set.... I hear it has tasty berries and salmon .

Or..... Shareholders put their Bitcoin into ASICMiner and altcoins and wait until the bear trap plays out.

Ok, so this is only just speculative and may never become reality (we'll see in a few hours;)

TLDR at bottom

Current Phase in process: PHASE ONE

2 Market mechanics at play:

1. Share holders want to sell their free Bitcoins from the pay out (or fractions thereof) at the best price possible

2. Everyone else trying to make a quick profit sells in anticipation of it, in order to re-buy at the bottom.

Phase ONE: During the hours leading up to the release of payouts (about 12pm on 2013-07-18 UTC) every speculator tries to dump their BTCs before the rest does. Europe wakes up first around 9 am UTC, then around 1pm UTC the US east coast wakes up with another slush of BTCs released on the markets.
The final price before first funds are released will be of great importance for what happens next: if the price is still pretty high, many SD payees will be tempted to sell their fresh BTCs at good rates. If price has come down pretty low, like 70 USD many will probably hold off, waiting for better rates. If on the other hand price has already been driven down below 50 USD, which I consider the edge to mass panic sells, the payees will most likely feel pressed hard to get rid of their BTCs quick, as long as it still "is worth something". Of course this sell off may not last long and will bounce back eventually but all of you, who have witnessed a panic sell before know that ppl tend to not act rationally under those circumstances.

Phase TWO: Funds are released, payees act according to current price

Im not sure about the amounts of BTCs to be sold immediately after funds release as they greatly depend on the situation at hand.

How likely are those scenarios in your opinions?

TLDR: If we stay above 50 before funds are released, we will be fine