Topic: 20 Day Price Forecast (8.2% error) (Read 4864 times)
These are terrible predictions
Did you ever test your model? I don't mean the error you produce by taking the learning data. I mean the actual prediction for an at that point unknown future. For example: You are prediction 489.2$ for tomorrow 4pm GMT. Now save that prediction and compare with the real value tomorrow.
I think then you get a much larger number than 1.3%
I think this is because the error adds up. So 1.3% only applies to the forecast of next hour and when you predict for example 12 hours ahead you could end up being 15.6% off.I think then you get a much larger number than 1.3%
It could propably be helpful to give additional information like average error of predicted price 6/12/18/24 hours ahead. That gives a better impression of the capabilities of this model.
very very interesting 
But:
There could be a logical flaw. Think about it. The more neurons you take, the better you can adjust it to the history. Take 1000 neurons and a big amount of computing power and you can lower the average error to 0.1%. But do you really think you can predict the future better?
Did you ever test your model? I don't mean the error you produce by taking the learning data. I mean the actual prediction for an at that point unknown future. For example: You are prediction 489.2$ for tomorrow 4pm GMT. Now save that prediction and compare with the real value tomorrow.
I think then you get a much larger number than 1.3%
Quote
The average error means that on average, predictions are off by that amount. If you have the neural network make predictions at every point in bitstamp's history and average how far off it was, you will get those numbers that I have put above the graphs.
There could be a logical flaw. Think about it. The more neurons you take, the better you can adjust it to the history. Take 1000 neurons and a big amount of computing power and you can lower the average error to 0.1%. But do you really think you can predict the future better?
Did you ever test your model? I don't mean the error you produce by taking the learning data. I mean the actual prediction for an at that point unknown future. For example: You are prediction 489.2$ for tomorrow 4pm GMT. Now save that prediction and compare with the real value tomorrow.
I think then you get a much larger number than 1.3%
So you wanna say, that the in a 50% confidence intervall price will be in the intervall +-8% of the current price? OMG. I'll make millions with this information! I don't know. It seems to be nice but I need no neural network for this info.
Just out of curiousity. How far does your neural network go back in time? I just wonder why all lines go up all the time.
Just out of curiousity. How far does your neural network go back in time? I just wonder why all lines go up all the time.
Well first of all, it doesn't always predict the price to rise. It predicts for the price to fall as well, though it would make sense if it predicted for the price to rise more than fall since that is what it has done more of throughout history.
Second, yeah the 20 day graph isn't very reliable. That's why I have the note there, and I also specify this in the about page. The 20 day chart only exists because it is interesting to see and a lot of people asked for it.
There is no confidence interval for where the price will fall in relation to the average error. The average error means that on average, predictions are off by that amount. If you have the neural network make predictions at every point in bitstamp's history and average how far off it was, you will get those numbers that I have put above the graphs. It probably comes more down to something like 90% of the time the price is in that interval, and 10% of the time it is a relatively significant amount off.
This tool isn't something you want to use exclusively and just blindly follow. However, I do think it is useful if you combine it with looking at the news and using your own judgement.
Ah ok, I read it wrong. I thought 8% is the average error for the daily prediction. 1.3% for the daily prediction and 2.59% for the 5 day is good. I chanllenced that with the prediction (price today = price tomorrow = price in 5 days) and the error was between 2.8 and 6% for the daily prediction and 4 to 16% for the 5day. I started at 4.feb and went back 1 month, 3m, 6m, 1y and 2y.
So when your network is still prediction higher prices although we have a down trend since 2 months I guess you go back a few months, right?
So you wanna say, that the in a 50% confidence intervall price will be in the intervall +-8% of the current price? OMG. I'll make millions with this information! I don't know. It seems to be nice but I need no neural network for this info.
Just out of curiousity. How far does your neural network go back in time? I just wonder why all lines go up all the time.
Just out of curiousity. How far does your neural network go back in time? I just wonder why all lines go up all the time.
Well first of all, it doesn't always predict the price to rise. It predicts for the price to fall as well, though it would make sense if it predicted for the price to rise more than fall since that is what it has done more of throughout history.
Second, yeah the 20 day graph isn't very reliable. That's why I have the note there, and I also specify this in the about page. The 20 day chart only exists because it is interesting to see and a lot of people asked for it.
There is no confidence interval for where the price will fall in relation to the average error. The average error means that on average, predictions are off by that amount. If you have the neural network make predictions at every point in bitstamp's history and average how far off it was, you will get those numbers that I have put above the graphs. It probably comes more down to something like 90% of the time the price is in that interval, and 10% of the time it is a relatively significant amount off.
This tool isn't something you want to use exclusively and just blindly follow. However, I do think it is useful if you combine it with looking at the news and using your own judgement.
The average error is generally between 8.1% and 8.3% (meaning that if it predicts $500, the price will usually be between $460 and $540).
So you wanna say, that the in a 50% confidence intervall price will be in the intervall +-8% of the current price? OMG. I'll make millions with this information! I don't know. It seems to be nice but I need no neural network for this info.
Just out of curiousity. How far does your neural network go back in time? I just wonder why all lines go up all the time.
Well this is not looking particularly promising at the moment lol
what about data-updating more quickly ? So you are better reacting to real life Events.
I will repeat my proposal until you have experienced many times that you should have done it earlier.
I will repeat my proposal until you have experienced many times that you should have done it earlier.
Haha yeah you really seem insistent on that upgrade lol. I do plan on doing that in addition to some other ways of possibly restructuring the way predictions are made in an attempt to increase accuracy. Right now I just got back to school from spring break though and I have a ton of work -_- haven't been able to do a lot with the predictions yet. I'll probably get started on this stuff around Wednesday next week... I should have much more free time by then.
Today opened at 580 so it's not impossible. Seems unlikely but let's see what THE MACHINE says (Person of Interest, anyone?).
it can have trouble when real-life events significantly affect bitcoin prices (like the China news in this case).
what about data-updating more quickly ? So you are better reacting to real life Events.I will repeat my proposal until you have experienced many times that you should have done it earlier.
Yeah I know, I'm curious to see if it shoots back up again. I think that it will, but it's hard to be sure. Like I wrote on the about page, it can have trouble when real-life events significantly affect bitcoin prices (like the China news in this case). So we'll see how well it does.
The algorithm seems to disagree with current price action quite violently... Right now it's predicting a rise to the 580's within 24 hours.
I think this is going to be a bad few days for bitcoin price. This IRS news will confuse and frustrate people and buying will be low. I don't see it going over $600 for at least a week. Maybe a month.
hmm maybe... it looks like the price is dipping down a bit. I think that the IRS taxing bitcoin is beneficial in the long run though. Bitcoin has to be taxed somehow for it to be viable as a currency, plus taxing it is a form of recognition and this gives it some more legitimacy.
I think this is going to be a bad few days for bitcoin price. This IRS news will confuse and frustrate people and buying will be low. I don't see it going over $600 for at least a week. Maybe a month.
i'm not sure trading based on this alone is a very good idea. using it to inform trading decisions along with other inputs is probably a safer strategy. an obvious weakness is that although the average error may be single-digits, there could be individual instances where the actual error is quite large, though these are rare enough that the average error remains low. depending on the size of your margin, one such instance could easily destroy your trading profitability.
--arepo
--arepo
I completely agree. I would use these predictions as a guideline but I definitely wouldn't follow them strictly 100% of the time. You definitely have to read up on the latest news and factor that into your decision as well. I believe that combining the neural network predictions with your own (presumably reasonable and somewhat intelligent) judgement could earn you a lot of money.
Would be nice to have the error margin projected on the graph!
+1
10 Hours ago, it was predicting ~535 for 9-10pm Eastern time, now it's 2 hours away and it's over 7% higher at ~575.
I want to see this thing be great, but that's a huge difference.
I want to see this thing be great, but that's a huge difference.
Yeah it did mess that up - that was a pretty big change. A 7% change in the 24 hour prediction is pretty rare and I think that's the first change that far outside the average margin of error that I've seen. That will happen sometimes though, and trading based on these predictions may cause people to lose money sometimes. However, I believe it is correct more often than incorrect and that in the long run, if someone were to trade based on these charts they would end up earning money. That's why I'm testing the trade simulator project I describe in the Coming Soon page - so far it's earned a small amount of money but it hasn't had a lot of opportunities yet since prices have been pretty stable.
i'm not sure trading based on this alone is a very good idea. using it to inform trading decisions along with other inputs is probably a safer strategy. an obvious weakness is that although the average error may be single-digits, there could be individual instances where the actual error is quite large, though these are rare enough that the average error remains low. depending on the size of your margin, one such instance could easily destroy your trading profitability.
--arepo
10 Hours ago, it was predicting ~535 for 9-10pm Eastern time, now it's 2 hours away and it's over 7% higher at ~575.
I want to see this thing be great, but that's a huge difference.
I want to see this thing be great, but that's a huge difference.
Yeah it did mess that up - that was a pretty big change. A 7% change in the 24 hour prediction is pretty rare and I think that's the first change that far outside the average margin of error that I've seen. That will happen sometimes though, and trading based on these predictions may cause people to lose money sometimes. However, I believe it is correct more often than incorrect and that in the long run, if someone were to trade based on these charts they would end up earning money. That's why I'm testing the trade simulator project I describe in the Coming Soon page - so far it's earned a small amount of money but it hasn't had a lot of opportunities yet since prices have been pretty stable.
Would be nice to have the error margin projected on the graph!
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