Topic: 20 Day Price Forecast (8.2% error) - page 3. (Read 4864 times)
Cassius - That actually is how it works... the long-term previous data is used to 'teach' the neural network. I just haven't been having it output the predictions it makes while it's learning. I would be curious to see that data too though, so I think I will have it do that. Maybe I'll put up a graph showing this compared to the real historic prices.
Cassius - I'm not sure what happens because I don't actually see the predictions, but maybe I'll alter it so that I can. That would be interesting to see. I have a feeling it would predict very mild spikes and crashes at certain times but nothing to the same magnitude as the actual fluctuations.
segeln - I did it because I thought it would be interesting to see and other people had expressed interest in seeing it as well. I will definitely work on having it update more often too, don't worry xD
segeln - I did it because I thought it would be interesting to see and other people had expressed interest in seeing it as well. I will definitely work on having it update more often too, don't worry xD
Ah, I figured long-term previous data had been used to 'teach' the software.
Again, would be interesting to see if the dips were predicted, just less severe (which might make sense, as you suggest) - at which point, maybe there would be a fix to increase volatility... who knows.
Cassius - I'm not sure what happens because I don't actually see the predictions, but maybe I'll alter it so that I can. That would be interesting to see. I have a feeling it would predict very mild spikes and crashes at certain times but nothing to the same magnitude as the actual fluctuations.
segeln - I did it because I thought it would be interesting to see and other people had expressed interest in seeing it as well. I will definitely work on having it update more often too, don't worry xD
segeln - I did it because I thought it would be interesting to see and other people had expressed interest in seeing it as well. I will definitely work on having it update more often too, don't worry xD
Hey guys,
So I've posted this here before, but I'm working on a software project that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. Predictions can be seen here:
http://www.btcpredictions.com
A few people were asking me about predictions beyond 5 days, which was the longest forecast I had until today. I was able to get the software to make "reasonable" 20 day predictions. I say "reasonable" but really I would say they are probably very far from reliable. The average error is generally between 8.1% and 8.3% (meaning that if it predicts $500, the price will usually be between $460 and $540). So the 20 day prediction probably is not useful for trading, but it is interesting because it reflects the general patterns that bitcoin prices are taking over a slightly longer period of time.
And remember, the 20 day prediction is new and still very much in a "beta" stage. I will try to improve on it, but I can't promise it will ever be significantly more accurate.
Hi,nice you made a 20 day forecast. But I did`nt want it because I think it is very,very , very far from reliability same as a longterm weatherforecast.So I've posted this here before, but I'm working on a software project that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. Predictions can be seen here:
http://www.btcpredictions.com
A few people were asking me about predictions beyond 5 days, which was the longest forecast I had until today. I was able to get the software to make "reasonable" 20 day predictions. I say "reasonable" but really I would say they are probably very far from reliable. The average error is generally between 8.1% and 8.3% (meaning that if it predicts $500, the price will usually be between $460 and $540). So the 20 day prediction probably is not useful for trading, but it is interesting because it reflects the general patterns that bitcoin prices are taking over a slightly longer period of time.
And remember, the 20 day prediction is new and still very much in a "beta" stage. I will try to improve on it, but I can't promise it will ever be significantly more accurate.
Honestly I do not understand why you did it and neglecting the Need of an update-time-intervall shortage (to 5 Minutes)This would be much more useful,since th prediction get much more reliable.
Hope you are working on that
Out of interest, what happens when you back-test with historical data? Specifically, does it predict the big dips and flash crashes as well as the trend? And do long long-term forecasts roughly stick to the exponential trend? It would be interesting to find out!
Nice, great effort.
Hey guys,
So I've posted this here before, but I'm working on a software project that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. Predictions can be seen here:
http://www.btcpredictions.com
A few people were asking me about predictions beyond 5 days, which was the longest forecast I had until today. I was able to get the software to make "reasonable" 20 day predictions. I say "reasonable" but really I would say they are probably very far from reliable. The average error is generally between 8.1% and 8.3% (meaning that if it predicts $500, the price will usually be between $460 and $540). So the 20 day prediction probably is not useful for trading, but it is interesting because it reflects the general patterns that bitcoin prices are taking over a slightly longer period of time.
And remember, the 20 day prediction is new and still very much in a "beta" stage. I will try to improve on it, but I can't promise it will ever be significantly more accurate.
So I've posted this here before, but I'm working on a software project that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. Predictions can be seen here:
http://www.btcpredictions.com
A few people were asking me about predictions beyond 5 days, which was the longest forecast I had until today. I was able to get the software to make "reasonable" 20 day predictions. I say "reasonable" but really I would say they are probably very far from reliable. The average error is generally between 8.1% and 8.3% (meaning that if it predicts $500, the price will usually be between $460 and $540). So the 20 day prediction probably is not useful for trading, but it is interesting because it reflects the general patterns that bitcoin prices are taking over a slightly longer period of time.
And remember, the 20 day prediction is new and still very much in a "beta" stage. I will try to improve on it, but I can't promise it will ever be significantly more accurate.
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