Topic: 2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest - page 12. (Read 21790 times)

TO DA MOON! 1 000 000 USD by the end of week, who disagrees is FUD spreader and troll. My prediction is based on logic and facts.

Looks like we're on track for $0.447 - $0.501, just as I predicted.

Even though my top score is between 398.11 and 446.67 I won't complain if your prediction comes true

less than 2 weeks left... Come on Bitcoin, wanna see the price in the range [562.34;630.95]

BUY BUY BUY 

If I would send my guess to a trusted third party first, and only then the others. But then I would not be the administering party (not a big deal really, it's just work and actually I am not doing it even now it is Nikke my assistant..)

For the reason that I save my legal ass, it is easier if there is no chance for me to benefit of this.

Problem: he needs to see our guesses in order to administer the contest. There's no simple way he can enter the contest himself and prove he's not cheating.

I wouldn't mind that you participate and can win the prize. As long as it's fair and you don't get to see our guesses

- I get to see the predictions of others
- My own prediction would move the averages

If I make my own prediction before looking at the others', and it is not part of the calculation but scored virtually based on the average of the others' predictions (the total number would preferably be higher than 8 predictions then), perhaps it would work. But it would be a pity to win without being eligible to the prize 

Let's see next month.

You should just play but make it clear that you can't win.  I'm sure we'd all be curious.  But, if you think it sways the game, I understand.

The >0.1% threshold (on the average, as per your chart) in May goes at $1.5 and in December it's at $40 

mine certainly does - my most conservative entry has >0.5% for everything between $50 and $0.079 per mbtc

When forecasting December, the following scenarios have to be accounted for. If they are, they give an insane spectrum of possible prices for the year end:

- 2013 once again. The price increased 54x to $0.728. The same increase this year means $39. Don't say it is impossible - that's what we did last year! (The all-time quickest expansion of bitcoin is 6400x in 9 months, but that is probably a one-time event.)

- Trendline holds. The trend is currently pointing to $6. It can easily range anywhere between $2.5-$18 and still be in the trend channel as calibrated in the last 2 bubbles.

- Current price holds. In 2012, the whole year passed without seeing a new ATH, not even close. So it is entirely realistic to have bitcoin in $0.5-$1 range the remainder of the year, and that alone cannot prove what the long-term value is..

- Bitcoin goes to the dumps. If this scenario was not there, logically bitcoin could only go up, and if that were true, it would have gone up already. So any price above $0.0xx has therefore to be possible. (Or below that, if the technology is broken.)

- In 2012-11-30 one year forward, the price had risen from $0.01256 to $1.2. It is almost 100x. Bad for you if you were not prepared. Hopefully the forecasters now are. Going 100x from $0.728 is $73, which is only a hair-width from $100.

It is no coincidence that the prediction range covers 4 orders of magnitude from $0.01 to $100.

I am not participating, but my sheet for December as forecasted in May would have a very wide distribution of numbers, just because Bitcoin has the tendency to surprise.  

 

I gave it 0.0001%  Maybe I'm too bullish, but I also think the price can not drop that much in one month. I have "fatter tails" for later months.

Right here.