Topic: 2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest - page 10. (Read 21851 times)
My phone sent me a message today, taunting me "Orange is the new black Season 2 on Netflix now!"
I CANT TAKE THE EXCITEMENT!!!!
Bumping for orange numbers.
Acknowledged. Technical difficulties :/
Bumping for orange numbers.
According to the rules, this is the current distribution
1. 100 + 720 + 240 = 1060 mBTC
2. 100 + 240 = 340 mBTC
Not quite. The rules don't specify what happens when there's a tie, probably because a tie is damned unlikely after all 36 predictions. But just in case, I propose tied contestants receive the average of what they would have got if there wasn't a tie (ie, bluemoon and I would each receive 170 mBTC).1. 100 + 720 + 240 = 1060 mBTC
2. 100 + 240 = 340 mBTC
We are actually tied for second place and that's not just a rounding error, right?
I'm just kidding around of course . If you win you can do with the money what you want 
. If you win you can do with the money what you want 
LOL anything for the last place that isnt eliminated? It won' be me cause I doubt I'll make it to the way Bitcoin price is progressing.
I could decide on deviding the remaining part (if any) to all other people who are still in the running in stead of donating it to Risto.
But I want to point out that i'm not the winner. Just started with a nice lead
We will see how it plays out, maybe I get eliminated next time LOL
LOL anything for the last place that isnt eliminated? It won' be me cause I doubt I'll make it to the way Bitcoin price is progressing.
Waiting for the "orange sheet" so we can create new charts
Tomorrow, son, tomorrow
I can wait, dad, I'm just excited
Meanwhile, I decided this. If I win, I will redistribute some of the entrance fees to the participants who are not excluded due to the -20 rule. The number of participants is relatively low, so it would be a bummer for the other people if they are in a nice third place and don't have a consolation prize.
According to the rules, this is the current distribution
1. 100 + 720 + 240 = 1060 mBTC
2. 100 + 240 = 340 mBTC
I calculated that the reward would drop below 1 BTC if we have 9 participants or more. In that case, at least 3 people will get a prize and this redistribution won't take place
I will redistribute everything I get above 1 BTC with this system (so 8 participants or less):
*if there are 2 prizes distributed, the thrid place will receive everything I have above 1 BTC, with a maximum of 50% of the ammount the second place gets
*if I am the only winner, the second place will receive 50% of what I get above 1 BTC (with a maximum of 250 mBTC) and the third place
will get 25% (with a maximum of 125 mBTC)
the remaining ammount will be donated to Risto.
=> The maximum ammount I can win is 1 BTC.
Good luck to all
edit: this means that, currently, there is a 60 mBTC third prize
The price in 2014-5-31 was 0.62121 and it ended in slot #35.
The contestants received points as follows:
dnaleor 2.09
bluemoon 0.55
Foxpup 0.55
sgbett1 0.1
sgbett3 0.1
sgbett4 -0.36
sgbett2 -0.46
wachtwoord -3.52
Total points awarded this round: -0.95 points.
The contestants received points as follows:
dnaleor 2.09
bluemoon 0.55
Foxpup 0.55
sgbett1 0.1
sgbett3 0.1
sgbett4 -0.36
sgbett2 -0.46
wachtwoord -3.52
Total points awarded this round: -0.95 points.
Wait, we weren't supposed to minimize our score?
Waiting for the "orange sheet" so we can create new charts
Tomorrow, son, tomorrow
The price in 2014-5-31 was 0.62121 and it ended in slot #35.
The contestants received points as follows:
dnaleor 2.09
bluemoon 0.55
Foxpup 0.55
sgbett1 0.1
sgbett3 0.1
sgbett4 -0.36
sgbett2 -0.46
wachtwoord -3.52
Total points awarded this round: -0.95 points.
The contestants received points as follows:
dnaleor 2.09
bluemoon 0.55
Foxpup 0.55
sgbett1 0.1
sgbett3 0.1
sgbett4 -0.36
sgbett2 -0.46
wachtwoord -3.52
Total points awarded this round: -0.95 points.
great
I admit I had some luck. But this is exactly the reason why I forced myself to give some additional percentages to the upside. Bitcoin always tends to be bullish on average. Hope next time the exchange rate will again exceed my expectations
Waiting for the "orange sheet" so we can create new charts
Good luck to all!
The price in 2014-5-31 was 0.62121 and it ended in slot #35.
The contestants received points as follows:
dnaleor 2.09
bluemoon 0.55
Foxpup 0.55
sgbett1 0.1
sgbett3 0.1
sgbett4 -0.36
sgbett2 -0.46
wachtwoord -3.52
Total points awarded this round: -0.95 points.
The contestants received points as follows:
dnaleor 2.09
bluemoon 0.55
Foxpup 0.55
sgbett1 0.1
sgbett3 0.1
sgbett4 -0.36
sgbett2 -0.46
wachtwoord -3.52
Total points awarded this round: -0.95 points.
It's all over! Price for the end of May: $627.80. 0.5472 points for me!
Volume weighed average, which we use in this game, was actually "only"
2014-05-31 00:00:00 621 628.5 611 627.8 9696.71 6023688.83 621.21
Nevertheless, I am happy with the revival
lol, so much panic, but we already were 99% sure that the price would be in the correct range
where do you check that weighted average, Risto?
Very happy with my points
Meh, over $630 would have been a little less bad for me
It's all over! Price for the end of May: $627.80. 0.5472 points for me!
Volume weighed average, which we use in this game, was actually "only"
2014-05-31 00:00:00 621 628.5 611 627.8 9696.71 6023688.83 621.21
Nevertheless, I am happy with the revival
lol, so much panic, but we already were 99% sure that the price would be in the correct range
where do you check that weighted average, Risto?
Very happy with my points
You mean when the price approached $630, we were panicking over nothing? That's disappointing. So when do we get to see the leaderboard? I don't care about my absolute score, only my score relative to the other contestants'. That's the only thing that matters!
It's all over! Price for the end of May: $627.80. 0.5472 points for me!
Volume weighed average, which we use in this game, was actually "only"
2014-05-31 00:00:00 621 628.5 611 627.8 9696.71 6023688.83 621.21
Nevertheless, I am happy with the revival
Yay! I got a lousy score 
It's all over! Price for the end of May: $627.80. 0.5472 points for me!
Just got mine in about 30 mins ago.
Looks like the price has squeaked in under 630.95, which means I might end up with a positive score... 0.1 to be precise
Looks like the price has squeaked in under 630.95, which means I might end up with a positive score... 0.1 to be precise
I will get > 2 points if we stay below 630.95
Still VERY close at the moment... Jump to: