If I look at the current Segwit "adoption rate", not many users are using Segwit transactions. Therefore I´m highly skeptical that Segwit usage will reach a level where it really quadruples the blocksize.
Really?
That's not a very astute observation, it appears that you have no informed reasoning about either the system itself, or the design behind it, and you are even incapable of reasoning about basic trend extrapolation
It's simply not possible for everyone to begin using Segwit immediately, that's inherent to it's design and rollout. If you're unfamiliar with the details of Segwit's design and rollout, do please educate yourself before you attempt to make a meaningful comment
I know that the fork is run by a different group of programmers. Is that a bad thing? Maybe they are actually better than the current Core Devs. Besides, many of the current Core Devs joined just a few years ago. Many of the original Core Devs are not around anymore and have quit the Bitcoin community and Bitcoin development for a variety of reasons.
Not necessarily a bad thing, it's an important part of Bitcoin's design that users can follow any fork they like.
But that's for the users to decide, and my individual judgement is that the new group are self-interested, that is not interested in benefiting Bitcoin's users at all. The new group of programmers are represented by the very largest interests in Bitcoin businesses, and a persistently pernicious character to Bitcoin development, Jeff Garzik, is leading the new programming team. Jeff makes anti-Bitcoin rhetoric all the time, he prefers authoritarianism to liberty. Bitcoin is about giving people choices free from moral interventionists, and Jeff is a proud moral interventionist.
As i commented in the other Segwit news article topping the Press board atm, Bitcoin will always survive as a liberty based money, no matter how much dust people like Barry Silbert and Jeff Garzik kick up. Satoshi came with such a well though out design, there is always a way to sidestep authoritarians. They can cause setbacks, but freedom will always rise from the ashes. They can't win against an idea, without successfully banning thought.