2017 Crash DejaVu? | Bitcointalksearch.org

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: Pursuer on July 20, 2019, 02:27:01 AM

both Google trends and fees are terrible indicators to use for market price.
for example right now Google trend is most probably higher due to the fact that news suddenly got flooded with articles about bitcoin and Trump tweet.
the fees are also going higher more often these days mainly because of the altcoins that have been spamming bitcoin network to mine their shitcoin (like Veriblock).

and neither one of these have anything to do with price and its rising although price is rising and we are in the beginning of the next bubble that will be shaped in about a year.

They aren't indicators for market's price, they are indicators for general market state - they show how much activity from users is happening at the given time. There's no denying that they correlate with big price movements caused by big masses of people.

You are wrong about Trump's tweets - they didn't cause any reaction from Google trends, in fact the latest spike happened in the end of June, which is exactly the time when Bitcoin surged. Google trends is a lagging indicator, but still it can provide us some insight to what's happening with the market.

Spamming can't cause as much transactions as organic use, and most of the spam happens at lower brackets, which has little effect on fees. Fees signal that people actively move coins in, out and between exchanges.

davis196

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There wasn't any 2017 crash.There were some price corrections but the bitcoin price was going constantly up during the entire 2017.Do you mean the 2018 bear trend?
We can't analyse the bitcoin price based only on the 2 month candlesticks movements.
Price patterns that happened in the past won't happen again.This is a well known rule.

Pursuer

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Where is my ring of blades...

Quote from: exstasie on July 19, 2019, 06:48:03 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on July 19, 2019, 05:16:49 PM

The last ATH and the crash that followed had many other, non-chart signs - the fees were high due to a huge network activity, as people were moving their coins in and out of exchanges, Bitcoin reached ATH on Google trends, the media all over the world were talking about Bitcoin, even on national television. There's nothing like that right now, so it's not the top of another bubble yet.

With most of those metrics, it looks like the beginning of a bubble now. Google Trends looks an awful lot like the May-October 2017 period before it went parabolic. Fees have been trending upwards since the beginning of the year too. I guess we got Trump tweeting about Bitcoin, but yeah, certainly not the everyday hype coverage of late 2017.

both Google trends and fees are terrible indicators to use for market price.
for example right now Google trend is most probably higher due to the fact that news suddenly got flooded with articles about bitcoin and Trump tweet.
the fees are also going higher more often these days mainly because of the altcoins that have been spamming bitcoin network to mine their shitcoin (like Veriblock).

and neither one of these have anything to do with price and its rising although price is rising and we are in the beginning of the next bubble that will be shaped in about a year.

exstasie

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on July 19, 2019, 05:16:49 PM

The last ATH and the crash that followed had many other, non-chart signs - the fees were high due to a huge network activity, as people were moving their coins in and out of exchanges, Bitcoin reached ATH on Google trends, the media all over the world were talking about Bitcoin, even on national television. There's nothing like that right now, so it's not the top of another bubble yet.

With most of those metrics, it looks like the beginning of a bubble now. Google Trends looks an awful lot like the May-October 2017 period before it went parabolic. Fees have been trending upwards since the beginning of the year too. I guess we got Trump tweeting about Bitcoin, but yeah, certainly not the everyday hype coverage of late 2017.

Stedsm

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I don't believe this as I'd repeat the same thing I told in earlier times - the volume during the 2017-18 was so low that the manipulation was a game to market-SHakers but after it got injected the leverage thing, I see the volume that's needed to shake the markets now is a lot more (almost 3x) from what it used to be. Asserting to the fact that you're saying, I think chances are very less of BTC coming back to lower levels as I believe it has already made its low for this year and doesn't need to go any further down as the pattern did justice to those who were waiting for another opportunity to buy back. The dissent about the price going up or not is actually becoming questionable with each day being cut off and this won't come to an end, so let's see what the time has to tell!

hatshepsut93

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The last ATH and the crash that followed had many other, non-chart signs - the fees were high due to a huge network activity, as people were moving their coins in and out of exchanges, Bitcoin reached ATH on Google trends, the media all over the world were talking about Bitcoin, even on national television. There's nothing like that right now, so it's not the top of another bubble yet. Maybe it is a fake rally (very low chance), but most likely the crash from $14,000 is just a correction on a road to much higher prices.

Febo

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Quote from: Astargath on July 16, 2019, 12:41:34 PM

Is it me or are the 2 last monthly candlesticks looking eerily similar? Similar uptrends before as well. Could we experience a huge crash like in 2017 again? At least the RSI is not similar but still

There was no crash in 2017 and last 2 months are not similar to me as end of 2017. November 2017 was crazy and hype around bitcoin was same as will be next year when Bitcoin will be over $100k.

FanEagle

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Quote from: Astargath on July 16, 2019, 12:41:34 PM

[im g]https://i.gyazo.com/425a7250bae759fd8a7f72f73edc0cda.png[/img]

Is it me or are the 2 last monthly candlesticks looking eerily similar? Similar uptrends before as well. Could we experience a huge crash like in 2017 again? At least the RSI is not similar but still

Are you serious? Bitcoin was around 900 dollars that same year, then it went as high as 1-3 thousand dollar range during summer and early september, it went as high as 20 thousand dollars peak during december. You think bitcoin going from 3.4k-4.2k range to 10k is "similar to 2017 crash"? How can someone be that stupid? I mean I am sorry but if you think bitcoin going over x20 in couple months is quite similar to bitcoin going x2-3 in couple months then you are going to lose a lot of money in bitcoin world and you should try to stop yourself from investing into it.

Spend your time on something else, you are wasting it on bitcoin, it is obvious you will never understand trading so why not spend it on something that would be useful for you, I would suggest learning how to play a musical instrument, that seems to relax people.

timerland

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Quote from: Astargath on July 17, 2019, 02:37:01 AM

Quote from: timerland on July 16, 2019, 06:21:28 PM

-snip-

People have been using that graph since 2017 in any way it fits them. The first line until the "bear trap" looks nothing like what we had these months, the uptrend was far more pronounced. That graph also doesnt mention any kind of % and its really useless when it comes to predicting price movements.

This is contradictory.

You are saying that there are no percentages in terms of how far the price swings (duh, if we could match up perfectly the market with this graph, why would people even attempt to conduct TA and analyze fundamentals? They could just refer to this graph all the time), yet you're saying that the price movements that we've seen are nowhere near what the graph suggests?

You mention that the uptrend was "far more pronounced". I disagree with this as well, since the markets merely recovered above $10k. Coupled with the fact that the halving, which usually sends the real bullish signal towards the market is still quite some time away, I think it is safe to say that we're still in the smart money/institutional interest phase.

BitHodler

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Quote from: Harlot on July 18, 2019, 01:57:16 PM

And just like that in just one day Bitcoin rise from 9,000$ to 10,600$. It only shows that the bulls won't go down without a fight.

I think the bulls actually like these selloffs because it makes a further increase easier. It also helps making people more bearish in general and therefore open shorts because they expect the price to tank. After that it's squeeze time.

It's not healthy when the price goes up in a parabolic manner, regardless of how strong the bulls are-- all it takes is the momentum to shift for the bears to start unloading the coins they firmly held on the way up.

The more we see large holders unload right now, the less selling bulls have to eat through on the way up to a new yearly high. The bears selling will eventually buy back at higher levels to not lose out once again, which means more buying pressure.

dunfida

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Quote from: LeGaulois on July 18, 2019, 01:51:32 PM

I was still happy with the $9,500 (if we look at where we come from...) We're maybe 'safe' from a 2017-2018 crash, It didn't look like a crash after all. The value has been able to recover $1k the last 24h, would be nice if it can do it 2 days again... Roll Eyes

Ups and Downs with $1,000 during the same days need to become a habit again.

People are worrying too much instead on utilizing those price movements.Making some % profits on a short or days time isnt bad if you do
able to get in on the right time.Nothing surprising if we hit 4 digits then after an hour we recovered with 5 digits.I dont know why people keep
speculating on crashes when they do saw a drop? Huh

Harlot

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And just like that in just one day Bitcoin rise from 9,000$ to 10,600$. It only shows that the bulls won't go down without a fight. I have observed the volume from the short time frame charts and it's still bullish. However will still not in the clear yet, Bitcoin needs to prove that it can still go up back above 11,000$ to show that we haven't trigger the bear market prematurely. It may have stop the sell offs happening but we still need BTC to continue this up trend just to be sure we are out of it.

LeGaulois

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I was still happy with the $9,500 (if we look at where we come from...) We're maybe 'safe' from a 2017-2018 crash, It didn't look like a crash after all. The value has been able to recover $1k the last 24h, would be nice if it can do it 2 days again... Roll Eyes

Ups and Downs with $1,000 during the same days need to become a habit again.

exstasie

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Quote from: adaseb on July 17, 2019, 02:59:52 AM

In 2017 we had 30-40% pullbacks that were around 4-5 weeks or so. And it eventually engulfed those drops and hit a new ATH shortly after.

Bingo. Shaking my head at all these people immediately assuming we've entered a long term bear market. Just look at the numbers. This drop is 100% typical compared to the 2016/2017 bull market.

Quote from: adaseb on July 17, 2019, 02:59:52 AM

The reason why the pullbacks are so severe is mostly due to over-leverged longs.

It's also because of the emotion/psychology tied to this insane volatility. The BTC market experienced this kind of volatility (larger really) before the days of Bitmex. When investors are spot holding from the $13,000s and price is crashing into $10K and beyond, there's sure to be spot holders panicking as well.

Pursuer

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Where is my ring of blades...

your "deja vu" is off by 2 years and about $9000.
what this current price and charts look like is 2015 not 2017. and the trend looks exactly like what we had at that time when price first started recovering from the absolute bottom at $150 and has been rising for a couple of months before it had a hiccup like what we are witnessing these days. a hiccup that is going to lull some of the bears to get out of their cave and wake up just to lose money before the reversal continues on its way upwards.

arpon11

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I am a bull trader and I have been predicting on bullish trend so far and also like to make comments on bullish trend than the bearish market but this your candlestick formation actually bring out the fat. Bitcoin conveniently crosses 50 MA yesterday on a daily chart comfortably and that is a sign that the bull is losing momentum and buyers are not ready to buy at the current pricing. If bitcoin break below $9000? Then we should be ready to stay below $8000 from now till the end of August as the trend reversal may happen by October to December as it has happened every bull years.

adaseb

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In 2017 we had 30-40% pullbacks that were around 4-5 weeks or so. And it eventually engulfed those drops and hit a new ATH shortly after.

The reason why the pullbacks are so severe is mostly due to over-leverged longs. Basically a few days ago when we were at $13000 there was over $1.1 billion in open interest and today its only $700, so its a crazy amount of longs which were liquidated that lead to this severe drop which happened so quickly.

It looks like the $9200 area held, so see if we can test the $10000 area and close above it.

marcbitcoins

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Most of the crypto holders are now afraid and most probably some of them are might be in panic selling their assest now specially those who experienced the great Bitcoin crash on Dec 2017 in which many crypto enthusiast did suffered and lost their investments. Hopefully that this is not Dejavu as Bitcoin market must need to be bullish again first before become bearish once again.

pooya87

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Quote from: exstasie on July 17, 2019, 02:20:52 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on July 17, 2019, 01:06:16 AM

people simply dump their altcoins for bitcoin directly and that never has any effect on bitcoin price in fiat terms. so the reverse meaning buying altcoins with bitcoin can not affect bitcoin price either.
it is not even the same market! it is BTC/ALT instead of being BTC/USD

Slippage: Since ALT/USD markets are so thin (and lots of coins don't even have fiat markets) it's often better to sell to ALT/BTC then BTC/USD.

Arbitrage: When the ALT/USD pairs get dumped, it can create arbitrage gaps between ALT/USD and [ALT/BTC-->BTC/USD]. Arbitrage bots use USD to buy the ALT, dump for BTC, then they dump the BTC for USD.

Both of these activities directly affect the BTC/USD market. So there is an effect.

the first one is correct. and i have even mentioned it on many occasions as the reason for a bunch of price drops that we had in the past. but that is not what @Slowdeath was saying. he was saying people are selling altcoins and buying bitcoin which is why bitcoin price is staying up and not dropping. what you are explaining is exit of money from altcoins to fiat through bitcoin which causes bitcoin price drop.

the second one is valid but i don't think the volume is that high to affect bitcoin price considering ATL/USD is not that popular and doesn't have high enough volumes on its own and arbitrage volume is not that high either. there is also the argument about whether ALT/USD drops first or ALT/BTC drops first, and again considering most trades are done in ALT/BTC i'd assume it would be the first to dump and the ALT/USD to follow in which case it can cause bitcoin price rise in it does anything!

Astargath

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Quote from: timerland on July 16, 2019, 06:21:28 PM

Doesn't look like it to me at all.

I don't think that the bull market has even entered the major stages of bullishness, fear of missing out, and euphoria yet. Prices have rose a crap ton over the last 3-4 months, yes, but nowhere to the scale of 2017, or what I'd expect to be the peak of the market.

If you look at this chart, I think that the more likely scenario is that we're currently in the first bear trap.

Markets will consolidate at a lower price before testing the $10k once again. I remain bullish for the long run despite people's concerns about Libra, because ultimately that has nothing to do with bitcoin's fundamentals.

People have been using that graph since 2017 in any way it fits them. The first line until the "bear trap" looks nothing like what we had these months, the uptrend was far more pronounced. That graph also doesnt mention any kind of % and its really useless when it comes to predicting price movements.

Topic: 2017 Crash DejaVu? (Read 728 times)