Topic: 2017 Crash DejaVu? - page 2. (Read 711 times)

Slippage: Since ALT/USD markets are so thin (and lots of coins don't even have fiat markets) it's often better to sell to ALT/BTC then BTC/USD.

Arbitrage: When the ALT/USD pairs get dumped, it can create arbitrage gaps between ALT/USD and [ALT/BTC-->BTC/USD]. Arbitrage bots use USD to buy the ALT, dump for BTC, then they dump the BTC for USD.

Both of these activities directly affect the BTC/USD market. So there is an effect.

first of all this "crash" you are talking about wasn't in 2017, it was in 2018. secondly nothing about it is similar. in 2017 we were in a big bubble that was the product of 2000% rise over the course of a year that was the follow up of all the rises that came before in 2016 and 2015 so that "bubble" was the final result of a 3 year bull run of 13233% rise. the follow up was the bubble burst, correction and panic that created a year long bear market reducing the price up to 85%.

right now, in comparison, we are in the recovery stage of that year long drop getting back part of the huge value that was lost mot of it for no reason. there is nothing similar here. if you zoom back and look at how previous peak that you think is similar to this happened you can see that it is a constant rise with your current time settings whereas this peak is a reversal that makes the chart look like a V.

here is what you think is similar (taken from this topic):


if you want to see something really similar then look at the same situations that we had in the past:
this is when we were reversing from the bottom of last HUGE dip after the previous major bubble in 2015. even the size of the rise (~4x) is similar!



people don't sell their altcoins to fiat then buy bitcoin with fiat to cause a price rise. people simply dump their altcoins for bitcoin directly and that never has any effect on bitcoin price in fiat terms. so the reverse meaning buying altcoins with bitcoin can not affect bitcoin price either.
it is not even the same market! it is BTC/ALT instead of being BTC/USD

I also remain bullish although we've seen some dip in the last 24 hours and moving down from as high as $13,800 last month. And I wouldn't say it's Deja Vu, I'm sure everyone knows that the market is very unpredictable. There might be some negatives news that really change the sentiments, but being bullish, it won't last that long. Everyone needs just to settle down and not panic.

Doesn't look like it to me at all.

I don't think that the bull market has even entered the major stages of bullishness, fear of missing out, and euphoria yet. Prices have rose a crap ton over the last 3-4 months, yes, but nowhere to the scale of 2017, or what I'd expect to be the peak of the market.

If you look at this chart, I think that the more likely scenario is that we're currently in the first bear trap.



Markets will consolidate at a lower price before testing the $10k once again. I remain bullish for the long run despite people's concerns about Libra, because ultimately that has nothing to do with bitcoin's fundamentals.

that's sort of my point.

if you zoom out, we have been in a $4500 range for almost a month. a week ago we were at the top of the range, now we're at the bottom. as expected, bears are already lining up for $5k and $6k. but how realistic is that?

i think people underestimate what it means (% wise) to fall another $3000-4000 from here. a 57% crash to $6k is straight up bear market behavior. nothing like that ever happened during the 2015-17 bull market, not even once. (and not even close)

Building up a higher price floor is extremely bullish long term speaking. The short term action might not be from the general point of view.

People just need to discard the few hours that we've been hovering over the $13,000 level. Current price action might be an early indicator that the bull market is over, but there is nothing that you can do about it other than to adjust to the changed market dynamics. The trend is your friend until it no longer is, and the friendship is weakening day by day. The bounce from sub $10,000 to just over $11,000 was a poor show.

We need a bit more price action, but it seems that we are forming a large decending triangle.

You got to love this market. One week ago we were all bullish and now it's going the other way.

sub-$7500 would be the first lower low on the weekly charts. so surely bulls do not want to see that.

dropping nearly 60% isn't bullish, period. bitcoin doesn't do that during bull markets. these targets far surpass any expectations based on history. the only exceptions were essentially flash crashes in august 2012 and april 2013. we don't have the same illiquid conditions as back then and we are weeks into this correction, so that seems doubtful.

a drop like that could mean we're actually in a bear market. and going sub-$3k after an epic 6 month bull trap pretty much guarantees we're going much deeper, likely below the 2013 ATH. that would threaten to break the entire historic bull trend since 2010.

instead, i think the "rebuy at $6k" idea willy woo and others are pushing is just a pipe dream.

Gravity is doing its work. It just isn't healthy to go up the way we did if we don't build up support zones.

Even if we end up touching $6000-$8000 that's still great considering the fact that we put in a higher low. Going from the $3000 bottom to building a new price floor above $6000 is actually very bullish. It might not feel like that for most people looking at how the price went down hard from $13,800 to these levels, but this stimulates investors to cash out profits out of fear.

There just isn't a way around it, the weekly scale looks bearish. Adjust to the changed market dynamics or risk more disappointment.

the first crash candle is a 48% drop, the second is 29%. that's the first indication that these are two very different situations.

these current monthly candles look a lot more like jun-aug 2016 than the 2017 top. in other words, this is probably a correction and not the start of a bear market.

Bitcoin rarely drops more than ~40% in a bull market and looking at the monthly chart, this is a bull market. I expect that to be the lower bound for this correction. I doubt we'll see below the low $8,000s. I'm not sure we'll get that far either.

Exactly. People's main reason to be here is still speculation related-- buying what goes up and selling what goes down is part of every market. The sentiment is just as volatile as the price is.

I personally don't think we'll see the bullish trend come to an end unless we see two consecutive bearish closes on the monthly time frame. Currently everything is still looking good and this correction a healthy pullback.

I won't say this is a dip to buy into because we might go a bit lower, but these prices are becoming more interesting for those who dollar cost average once or twice a month. Lower price means more satoshis for your fiat.

Someone pointed this out quicker than me, and yeah if you like, this is just like 2017, I remember it all too well, almost was daily transfixed by the price movements... it was my first experience with a parabolic move, and had only a year ago to that seen struggles to hit 4-digit valuation.

That's not to say we're copying the move now. I still think it's too soon. But when has Bitcoin ever been rational right?

I believe that unfortunately the main reason why the price is falling a lot is because of this:

US Senators Grill Facebook on Privacy, Trust Issues in Libra Hearing

Libra Vs. US Congress: All There Is to Know Ahead of Hearings

Facebook Stresses Libra’s Compliance With FinCEN at Senate Hearing

and if the price are resisting a collapse should probably be because many people are selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin. Many people buy bitcoin because they think that with Libra entry, the price of bitcoin will go up a lot, and how libra is facing governments, those people who bought bitcoin thinking that Libra will be a great success and will cause bitcoin to increase a lot should be panic and are selling. I really wanted to believe that people are not buying bitcoin because of Libra, but unfortunately looking at the latest news, it is clear that, the reason of the price has increased a lot is because of Libra. this reminds me in 2017 when people thought that with the entry of the FUTURES would enter many institutional investors, but instead, governments began to make pressure and the price fell a lot. history is repeating itself in a different way

It would be comparable if we crashed to $7K in the next couple weeks and didn't recover. This time we haven't nearly retraced last month's candle so I wouldn't make the comparison.

Wait for the candle to close. We're only half way through the month. There's still lots of time for shenanigans.

As long as people insist on using bitcoin as an investment vehicle we should see epic crashes.  I would expect to see at least a 50% drop when crashing. 70 -90% being epic. There is no end in sight for this.

We had similar patterns from september 2015 and all the way to november 2017. 50 to 70 days cycles between lows. And 20-35% price decline from the tops within the cycles.

Similar the candlesticks are it doesn't still tell the same story as before, just by looking at the chart you have provided it shows that they are in fact on a different scenario. Look at the volume we have now compared in the past. It shows that the volume even though we are at a lower bullish price shows that it's greater compared to the December bull run. Greater volume on means a greater participation in the market, even if we correct to a lower price now and enter into a bear market yet again it will be shorter compared to what we have last time.

We ALL are afraid to go back to a crypto market that sleeps for months, like 2018 

But I don't think this is the time, we are growing and all people are optimistic about BTC, we was at 3k level not a long time ago...

Yep, all that is good to keep in mind at a time like this.  I also keep remembering how long bitcoin was stuck at around $3500--and a couple years before that, it could barely get past $400.  That's the perspective I like to keep, and I'm not going to react to what amounts to a normal price drop for bitcoin.  It's barely below $10k right now, and that's just fine with me.

Corrections like this are healthy and to be expected, especially when something has shot up as fast as bitcoin did recently.  It's just what happens; nothing to see here, folks.

Hell yes it does.  I just think bitcoin shot up too high, too fast and that kind of gain isn't sustainable without some sort of dip.  The thing with bitcoin is that its dips are pretty dramatic.

Yeah but going from ~$3k to $14k seems like a bull run already, no?