Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) (Read 1281 times)

I have a friend making such predictions and drawing these charts and it is so funny seeing his multiple attempts to make another prediction and to change his mind when price is going another way!

So dear Elliot Wave fans, where are your Elliot Waves now? Cryptocurrency does not give a singe f**k about such theories. Bitcoin is way too easy to manipulate (which is not illegal) and as long as that is the case, TA strategies are mostly useless.

Elliott wave analysis does not have much effect in the crypto market, it is only useful for the stock market and forex.
But some of your charting analyzes are pretty good for reference with a couple of relatively worthwhile parameters to add to my personal analysis and predictions, thanks for that. 

Why don't you use BB code to display this image, or my bad network feels really bad because it only has a url, with images of course very interesting and easier to understand.

Bitcoin's True Stress Test Is Yet to Come: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-true-stress-test-is-yet-to-come/

I've been hearing the number ~5.800 for months now, as a last "test" before we can really go up.

What I know is that Elliot waves are used by many traders now, but i have never heard of issues about this crash. One of my friends is more interested in learning one skill that is 100% accurate but few people can learn it.
For me crypto is very unpredictable besides being controlled by big investors who anytime they want to pump and dump

So we have less than 2 months left to the year, CBOE expiry coming in 10 days, and we're almost exactly in the middle of both bear and bull early projections you've given here. So basically, we're finely balanced - 50/50. And that's still a way off from hitting the confirmation targets, so is it time to say now that 2018 isn't going to confirm either bull or bear? I can't see BTC hitting 4k or 7.4k

The first inflections you put even don't look possible at this stage!

I really do not understand what you want to mention. I looked at the pictures of the altcoins and did not understand what was going on. Here are some pictures of technical analysts and no annotations. Can you explain each item?

Nasdaq says it can lead the fight against market manipulation and fraud that has been plaguing the cryptocurrency market. In fact, a few exchange platforms are already adopting the exchange operator’s market surveillance technology.

This might stop the market from crashing once every year. Looking good!

Source: https://bitcoinist.com/nasdaq-crypto-fraud-manipulation/

no, BTC prices will not break up to 4k dollars. I am sure BTC will stay at a price of 6k more for this year if there is no event that makes it rise. believe the lowest is 6k and it is not impossible if at the end of the year riding friends

Are you kidding right? You predicted the future perfectly!
But I hope that Elliot Wave wont continue, I dont want to see Bitcoin for 4000USD.

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://redd.it/9u1y3z


 
The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bear market of 2018 has reached a point of inflection, where alternative scenarios and projections can now be explored using Elliott Wave theory.

From the 17-DEC-2017 high to the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market endured a 70% price collapse from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX). In Elliott Wave parlance, this first phase crash is a simple but sharp three wave a-b-c zigzag pattern.

From the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market then wandered sideways for 168 days until 24-JUL-2018, creating a floor of support at $6,000 whilst making successively lower highs. The psychological $6,000 price has been guarded since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap. In Elliott Wave parlance, this second phase of market development is a triangle pattern consisting of five a-b-c-d-e waves. The internal structure of the waves within the triangle are related to each other in terms of length as the following Fibonacci ratios:

    wave-c = wave-a * 0.618
    wave-d = wave-b * 0.786
    wave-e = wave-c * 0.786



The triangle phase of the Bitcoin market completed at the 24-JUL-2018 high. Since then, the third phase of market has been underway with an expectation of creating new lows for 2018 at sub $6,000 prices. Initial approx targets have been projected as follows (BITSTAMP):

    @5920: Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high.
    @5220: Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high.  
    @4327: Fibonacci 0.100% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high.
    @4200: Fibonacci 78.6% decline of entire Bitcoin market.

Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude.

Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes

However, the Bitcoin market has reached an inflection point. The third phase of the bear market appears to have stagnated in price and time. Since 09-SEP-2018, price has traded in a narrow 10% range at an average price of $6,400 for almost 60 days thus far. Volatility is now at a 22-month low and technicals such as moving averages are flat-lining across daily timeframes. This behaviour has been quite unexpected. Since completion of the consolidating triangle phase of the market, volume and volatility was expected to breakout. Speculators and traders have left the stabilised cryptocurrency marketplace in favour of the more volatile global equity bear markets.

An alternative scenario can now be considered: Since completion of the triangle at the 24-JUL-2018 high, the concluding phase of the bear market may have declined and truncated at the 11-OCT-2018 low. If so, a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market may be commencing within an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. Such a bull market would be termed as a wave-X as part of a complex ongoing long-term bear market structure.



In some schools of Elliott Wave thought, the wave-X bull market may unfold in five 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive waves; or, as three a-b-c corrective waves considered in other schools of thought. Either way, the size of a wave-X is challenging to predict. Typically, it may retrace either a Fibonacci 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% of the entire 2018 bear market; that is approx $11,081 or $12,720 or $14,360 or $16,705 respectively (BITSTAMP). In some cases, a wave-X may extend to, and even exceed prior all-time highs, like typically seen in commodity and forex markets. The wave-X cyclical bull market could be a swift parabolic move elapsing within 12 months during the course of 2019, and thus the overall secular bear market may still resume to unfold to a low in late 2020.

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In summary, the parameters of the inflection point can be currently defined as follows, using BITSTAMP prices…

Bear Market Inflection Points

—A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway.
—A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market.
—A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020.

Bull Market Inflection Points

—A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing.
—A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway.

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Notes

—Bitcoin CBOE XBT futures expiries: 14-NOV-2018, 19-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin CME futures last trade dates: 30-NOV-2018, 28-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin ICE Bakkt daily futures tentative launch: 12-DEC-2018

—S&P500: global stockmarket indices appear to have topped, and a bear market is underway. Expectation is a rally into the end of year 2018 towards $2,800+ in the S&P500 index, followed by a decline to approx $2,400 by Easter 2019 to end the brief equity bear market.

—Gold: rally underway, expectation to conclude at approx $1,260, and then bear market resumes to sub $1,000 by 2020.

—US Dollar: expecting uptrend to be bounded by approx 98, and then bear market resumes.

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Elliott Wave models are speculative and indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.

BTC (Weekly)



BTC (Daily)



BTC (4-hr)

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Redux
https://redd.it/913xx6

Since the all-time high set on 17-DEC-2017, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin bear market has now elapsed 7 months with a peak decline of 70% in value thus far.

The first leg of the crash from 17-DEC-2017 to 06-FEB-2018, saw a 70% decline where price collapsed from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX).

Since the 06-FEB-2018 low, price has wandered sideways on diminishing volume and volatility, contracting into a triangle pattern. A triangle formation reflects a balance of forces creating a directionless resolve: an equilibrium and indecisive psychological state of mind between the bulls & bears, a period of consolidation as the market deliberates its next move.

Five waves are expected in a contracting triangle pattern, labelled as a-b-c-d-e waves. Under textbook Elliott Wave analysis, at least two of the five alternate waves are typically related to each other by the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio, and it appears wave-c and wave-e are the alternating candidates:



—wave-a: Rallied 95% from 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.

—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.

—wave-c: ‘April Fools Rally’: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to 05-MAY. In regards to length, it was a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-a and terminated just shy of the psychological $10,000 level.

—wave-d: ‘Sell In May And Go Away’: Declined 33% from 05-MAY to 24-JUN. In regards to length, wave-d equalled a Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-b.

—wave-e: The final leg of the triangle pattern, and the shortest, has been underway since 24-JUN. Should wave-e equal a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c, it would do so at around $7,958 (BITFINEX) —and converging trendlines of the triangle suggest by mid to late JUL. It is common for this final wave-e of a triangle to either undershoot or overshoot the converging trendlines of the triangle. However, this wave-e must terminate below wave-c for the overall triangle to remain valid; i.e. below the MAY high of $9,990 (BITFINEX). Summary of targets to complete the triangle (BITFINEX):
Textbook:
    @7873: wave-e retraces a Fibonacci 50% of wave-d
    @7958: wave-e equals a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c    
Overshoot:
    @8372: wave-e retraces a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-d
    @8557: wave-e equals a Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-c
    @9084: wave-e retraces a Fibonacci 78.6% of wave-d

Once the triangle completes, the second leg, and most devastating leg, of the cryptocurrency bear market is expected to resume with a breakout in volume and volatility —the crash redux. Taking out $7,330 may commence the second leg of the bear market, at which point signals time to exit all cryptocurrencies.

The Elliott Wave principle pinpoints the start of the ‘mania’ phase at $5,400 (BITFINEX) on 12-NOV-2017. At this level in time, price withdrew to create wave-4 as part of a 1-2-3-4-5 series of advancing waves:



From $5,400 to $19,891 manifests the steep parabolic price curve of the fifth and final wave. Therefore, taking out $5400 begins ‘capitulation’ of the earliest of public speculators and loyal hodlrs —amidst a volatile and instable marketplace surged in volume driven by margin calls, where mass media hysterics begin to peak reaffirming the ‘fear’ phase. Hence the psychological $6,000 has been guarded for the last +5 months since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap.



Initial expectation for the second leg bear market is towards $4,257 (BITFINEX) which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market which begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs; where reality of the bubble bursting only just is grasped as the 'blow-off' phase gains momentum.

From a political and socionomic standpoint, the following events termed as “FUD” may begin to unravel during the second leg of the bear market:

• Further laws/bans/restrictions upon cryptocurrencies invoked by countries/governments, calling for tighter regulation and fraud prevention: positive rulings, but perceived as negatives.
• Prolonged exchange outages preventing deposits/withdrawals and management of positions; including hacking and exploitation of security flaws.
• Exposure and collapse of further Ponzi schemes.
• Majority of Altcoins currently around US$2,000,000,000 market capitalization becoming extinct. Manipulated alt/BTC pairs at highest risk of collapse; see deadcoins.com
• Mergers & acquisitions of crypto companies, reduction of trading fees and margins/spreads, and launch of basket financial instruments (e.g. ETFs, index funds, etc), in the endeavour to revive and survive the market.
• Individual bankruptcies and suicides.

Based on historical manias, when a speculative asset bubble bursts, an approx 90%-95% collapse unravels in a period of 2 years:

—thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
—en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

Chronicles of historical manias suggest the cryptocurrency bear market is likely to conclude by late 2019 or early 2020, with Bitcoin priced between $500 to $1,000.

It is musing to project whether or not Bitcoin survives the crash.

Commodities and currencies, and assets deemed as a store of value, unfold in A-B-C Elliott Waves in both bull and bear markets. Whereas assets such as stocks based on earnings unfold in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.

The wave characteristics of Bitcoin and the popular cryptocurrencies have unfolded in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.

Given the nature of wave characteristics, this suggests the behaviour cryptocurrencies cannot be considered as a currency nor a commodity; and so therefore in their current state, shall never be adopted as robust mediums of exchange for goods and services or as a storage medium of value.

Quite possibly, a second generation of viable cryptocurrencies may emerge in post 2020. Either way, the days of speculative parabolic price curves in the cryptocurrency markets is over, and any hopes of a return to the all-time highs is foolish hodlr's fodder.

Elliott Wave speculative models indicative of price and structure, not time; as follows:




 

this issue concerns a very large number of people. after all, many of them buy cryptocurrencies only for speculative purposes. When the acute question to fix the damage or wait for the change of the vector of market. Panic covers all, and those who buys currency on small money and for those who bought coin on credit money. But took for the first and for the second will be the same. Determine for yourself what you believe and whether you will bite your elbows in 5 years when bitcoin will cost 100 times more. You decide.

I do not believe in any such analyses, eliott wave or other ones nothing can foresee bitcoin's future. They are just predictions.

chart and all of prediction can be a good prediction? but when it is  true or happen, when all of chart can predict right all trader have to be rich, ask elliot???

Don't see $2k happening too strong a support both at $6k and $4k levels

Trying to look at the chart of BTC, because I know this is what actually drive the direction of the market, the elliot waves show the price of BTC is going to $2500, is this possible, I won't bet against it, but the likelihood of this happening is very low, I don't know how many people will be selling its BTC at $2500

We don't know how big it can and how the market will proceed before this year ends, the graph will be a good basis if we are aiming for short term
trade but looking for long term then its all about trusting your instinct, crash will always be a part of trade and no matter how well we understand
chances that we will misinterpret the next movements are always possible.

I don’t know for others but I always consider investing in bitcoin if you are looking for a long term investment and if you looking for short term investment I always chose Eth. For these coins are more safer and secure other than any coin.