2020 Democrats - page 31. | Bitcointalksearch.org

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on March 31, 2020, 02:00:29 PM

Quote from: theymos on March 30, 2020, 04:40:50 PM

It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
- Trump 50%
- Biden 40%
- Cuomo 6%
- Sanders 4%
- Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

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Keep in mind those numbers are from a market, not a sports book. A lot of trades are based on what you think other people will predict rather than what you think will actually happen.

A sportsbook tries to price their odds such that approximately equal bets are placed on each side of a bet. A betting market is exactly that, except the spread is much smaller for a market.

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on March 31, 2020, 02:00:29 PM

Quote from: theymos on March 30, 2020, 04:40:50 PM

It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
- Trump 50%
- Biden 40%
- Cuomo 6%
- Sanders 4%
- Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

How coronavirus will impact the general election is unpredictable. There seems to be a "rally around the flag" effect which is boosting Trump right now, but that won't last until November, and the media is slamming Trump's handling of the virus constantly. Trump has also lost the huge advantage that was the apparently-roaring economy. On the other hand, Biden has been performing terribly.

Trump will claim credit for the $1200 that most Americans will get, and he will claim credit for turning the economy around "even through wartime" if the economy does indeed start to recover by November. The government/Fed actions are pretty terrible long-term, but they may be enough to juice up the economy by November, possibly even to the point where a lot of people feel as if the whole quarantine thing was sort of like a government-sponsored, Trump-led paid vacation for a few months. Keep in mind that in the rust belt, $1200 goes a lot further than in eg. California: $1200/adult may be enough for 3 months' rent in many areas.

If a lot of people in swing states start knowing people who have died from the virus, or if the economy enters a death spiral from which it hasn't even really started to extricate itself by November, or if the holes that have been created in the supply chain start creating serious shortages, then Trump would be in trouble.

Keep in mind those numbers are from a market, not a sports book. A lot of trades are based on what you think other people will predict rather than what you think will actually happen.

I would assume that the incumbent advantage and all of the other things going into this race would put the race in that realm though. Been awhile since an incumbent president lost reelection (since the first Bush) so people can't see Trump losing, especially with Biden at the helm.

You can see the enthusiasm gap between the two candidate here. With Trump having the most enthusiasm behind him, as Biden falls behind drastically, check below for links from 538 and Fox on the polls and discussion regarding the polls.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/so-about-that-supposed-lack-of-enthusiasm-for-biden/

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-enthusiasm-polls-trump

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Quote from: BADecker on March 31, 2020, 08:39:15 PM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on March 31, 2020, 02:00:29 PM

Quote from: theymos on March 30, 2020, 04:40:50 PM

It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
- Trump 50%
- Biden 40%
- Cuomo 6%
- Sanders 4%
- Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

How coronavirus will impact the general election is unpredictable. There seems to be a "rally around the flag" effect which is boosting Trump right now, but that won't last until November, and the media is slamming Trump's handling of the virus constantly. Trump has also lost the huge advantage that was the apparently-roaring economy. On the other hand, Biden has been performing terribly.

Trump will claim credit for the $1200 that most Americans will get, and he will claim credit for turning the economy around "even through wartime" if the economy does indeed start to recover by November. The government/Fed actions are pretty terrible long-term, but they may be enough to juice up the economy by November, possibly even to the point where a lot of people feel as if the whole quarantine thing was sort of like a government-sponsored, Trump-led paid vacation for a few months. Keep in mind that in the rust belt, $1200 goes a lot further than in eg. California: $1200/adult may be enough for 3 months' rent in many areas.

If a lot of people in swing states start knowing people who have died from the virus, or if the economy enters a death spiral from which it hasn't even really started to extricate itself by November, or if the holes that have been created in the supply chain start creating serious shortages, then Trump would be in trouble.

Keep in mind those numbers are from a market, not a sports book. A lot of trades are based on what you think other people will predict rather than what you think will actually happen.

You forget that the market makers are called bookies. Bookies will make the market according to what they see, but mostly according to what they want everyone else to see.

Cool

https://www.predictit.org/support/what-is-predictit

BADecker

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on March 31, 2020, 02:00:29 PM

Quote from: theymos on March 30, 2020, 04:40:50 PM

It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
- Trump 50%
- Biden 40%
- Cuomo 6%
- Sanders 4%
- Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

How coronavirus will impact the general election is unpredictable. There seems to be a "rally around the flag" effect which is boosting Trump right now, but that won't last until November, and the media is slamming Trump's handling of the virus constantly. Trump has also lost the huge advantage that was the apparently-roaring economy. On the other hand, Biden has been performing terribly.

Trump will claim credit for the $1200 that most Americans will get, and he will claim credit for turning the economy around "even through wartime" if the economy does indeed start to recover by November. The government/Fed actions are pretty terrible long-term, but they may be enough to juice up the economy by November, possibly even to the point where a lot of people feel as if the whole quarantine thing was sort of like a government-sponsored, Trump-led paid vacation for a few months. Keep in mind that in the rust belt, $1200 goes a lot further than in eg. California: $1200/adult may be enough for 3 months' rent in many areas.

If a lot of people in swing states start knowing people who have died from the virus, or if the economy enters a death spiral from which it hasn't even really started to extricate itself by November, or if the holes that have been created in the supply chain start creating serious shortages, then Trump would be in trouble.

Keep in mind those numbers are from a market, not a sports book. A lot of trades are based on what you think other people will predict rather than what you think will actually happen.

You forget that the market makers are called bookies. Bookies will make the market according to what they see, but mostly according to what they want everyone else to see.

Cool

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Quote from: theymos on March 30, 2020, 04:40:50 PM

It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
- Trump 50%
- Biden 40%
- Cuomo 6%
- Sanders 4%
- Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

How coronavirus will impact the general election is unpredictable. There seems to be a "rally around the flag" effect which is boosting Trump right now, but that won't last until November, and the media is slamming Trump's handling of the virus constantly. Trump has also lost the huge advantage that was the apparently-roaring economy. On the other hand, Biden has been performing terribly.

Trump will claim credit for the $1200 that most Americans will get, and he will claim credit for turning the economy around "even through wartime" if the economy does indeed start to recover by November. The government/Fed actions are pretty terrible long-term, but they may be enough to juice up the economy by November, possibly even to the point where a lot of people feel as if the whole quarantine thing was sort of like a government-sponsored, Trump-led paid vacation for a few months. Keep in mind that in the rust belt, $1200 goes a lot further than in eg. California: $1200/adult may be enough for 3 months' rent in many areas.

If a lot of people in swing states start knowing people who have died from the virus, or if the economy enters a death spiral from which it hasn't even really started to extricate itself by November, or if the holes that have been created in the supply chain start creating serious shortages, then Trump would be in trouble.

Keep in mind those numbers are from a market, not a sports book. A lot of trades are based on what you think other people will predict rather than what you think will actually happen.

Gyfts

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Quote from: InvoKing on March 31, 2020, 10:27:51 AM

Quote from: theymos on March 30, 2020, 04:40:50 PM

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

There is rumors or complaints? about harassment against him which could affect his reputation although it doesn't affect the megalomaniac previously.
Coronavirus in USA is a disaster, 10k deaths in the upcoming days and maybe 5 times that number before the end of April? If the gov did what it wants without pressure then people will celebrate for having only 1k a day.
Economy will recover whatever the impact of coronavirus is, although it will recover fast after confinement. The problem is the number of people in critical condition and who can't work, letting the virus spread freely will increase their number considerably, will reduce the number of employees and customers, will push other countries to isolate USA passengers or even goods once they get ride of the virus...

There hasn't been enough media coverage regarding the Biden sexual assault allegations to properly derail his campaign. I think the betting markets reflect he's just a boring candidate that's on the cognitive decline who's a liability in the general. Trump isn't a great speaker but he'll run miles around Joe Biden with him slurring his speech every other word.

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Quote from: theymos on March 30, 2020, 04:40:50 PM

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

There is rumors or complaints? about harassment against him which could affect his reputation although it doesn't affect the megalomaniac previously.
Coronavirus in USA is a disaster, 10k deaths in the upcoming days and maybe 5 times that number before the end of April? If the gov did what it wants without pressure then people will celebrate for having only 1k a day.
Economy will recover whatever the impact of coronavirus is, although it will recover fast after confinement. The problem is the number of people in critical condition and who can't work, letting the virus spread freely will increase their number considerably, will reduce the number of employees and customers, will push other countries to isolate USA passengers or even goods once they get ride of the virus...

theymos

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It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
- Trump 50%
- Biden 40%
- Cuomo 6%
- Sanders 4%
- Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

How coronavirus will impact the general election is unpredictable. There seems to be a "rally around the flag" effect which is boosting Trump right now, but that won't last until November, and the media is slamming Trump's handling of the virus constantly. Trump has also lost the huge advantage that was the apparently-roaring economy. On the other hand, Biden has been performing terribly.

Trump will claim credit for the $1200 that most Americans will get, and he will claim credit for turning the economy around "even through wartime" if the economy does indeed start to recover by November. The government/Fed actions are pretty terrible long-term, but they may be enough to juice up the economy by November, possibly even to the point where a lot of people feel as if the whole quarantine thing was sort of like a government-sponsored, Trump-led paid vacation for a few months. Keep in mind that in the rust belt, $1200 goes a lot further than in eg. California: $1200/adult may be enough for 3 months' rent in many areas.

If a lot of people in swing states start knowing people who have died from the virus, or if the economy enters a death spiral from which it hasn't even really started to extricate itself by November, or if the holes that have been created in the supply chain start creating serious shortages, then Trump would be in trouble.

BADecker

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I thought Democrats loved the people, and would do anything for them. But now Dems are helping to shut down the country.

Gyfts

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on March 28, 2020, 01:35:13 AM

Quote from: Gyfts on March 27, 2020, 11:23:24 PM

Why is it in the year 2020 every major politician is implicated in the #MeToo movement? If you want to go back to the Kavanaugh hearings where #MeToo was essentially used as an excuse to believe all women and stop a conservative nominee for the Supreme Court, you'll see the movement has been abused to destroy people's careers without any sort of credible evidence.

Because for most of history it was fine for men to physically and mentally abuse women, and when it wasn't openly accepted it still happened, but in general women did not feel comfortable speaking up, so men usually got away with it.

It's much easier for women to speak up now, so more of them do and are.

Of course there are dishonest women who will take advantage of that by making stuff up to get rich, famous or revenge.

So now, there are innocent men having their lives/careers ruined by false accusations. On the other hand, the guilty ones are being made an example of so that, hopefully, women are treated better in the future.

It sucks how easy it is for a woman to ruin someones life by telling a lie. The ones who are caught should have a fate similar to what the man they lied about would have suffered if they got away with it.

I'm glad that every young man in the country is witnessing this though, I feel like women will be treated much better as a result.

There's certainly been a cultural shift on how men treat women from the 90's and earlier, hence the Me Too movement but if the accusations are true against Biden, he really has no explanation. He won't be able to rely on claiming that times were different.

Quote from: TwitchySeal on March 28, 2020, 01:35:13 AM

I generally agree. It will be interesting if Trump himself brings it up directly, or just retweets a bunch of other people discussing it.

There's a chance the whole thing will be forgotten though, the woman definitely didn't pick the best time to try and fit into the news cycle. It would have to become a pretty huge story for CNN or NBC to even consider acknowledging it.

I haven't looked into it too much, but it looks like she accused him a while ago but didn't mention the ramming his fingers into her vagina then. She does have proof that she was on his staff when she says she was though, so that's something.

Yeah people will definitely forget about this now with COVID-19 dominating the news cycle but I'm sure members of the Trump campaign won't pass up on the opportunity to use it against Biden. Trump's been accused of sexual assault but most, if not all, the cases have been refuted. Meanwhile you have Biden on camera being overly touchy with young women that's hard to look at without throwing up.

Quote from: KonstantinosM on March 28, 2020, 02:31:36 AM

Well, she went to the #MeToo people and they didn't want to help her at all! They are bought out by the establishment like most institutions out there.

We can expect this to be ignored by the media and buried. Trump doesn't have an incentive to go there and visit that subject since he has his own dirty laundry. Although Trump is unpredictable and Biden's potential voters are much more likely to care about that sort of think than Trump's.

Don't expect much to come out of it. When it comes to people the establishment doesn't like, or narratives the establishment wants to go through, we're supposed to believe women, no matter the lack of evidence or potential agenda. When it comes to their anointed candidate, we're supposed to marginalize them. Figures.

I don't expect the establishment to latch onto the story which is why I believe it won't derail Biden's shot to the nominee but Trump and this campaign won't hold back on what type of oppo research they choose to launch against Biden if the 2016 campaign was any indication of how they run a campaign.

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Quote from: Gyfts on March 27, 2020, 11:23:24 PM

What do you guys think will be Joe Biden's response, if any, to the recent sexual assault allegations he's been hit with? - https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/will-biden-live-up-to-his-own-principles/

Why is it in the year 2020 every major politician is implicated in the #MeToo movement? If you want to go back to the Kavanaugh hearings where #MeToo was essentially used as an excuse to believe all women and stop a conservative nominee for the Supreme Court, you'll see the movement has been abused to destroy people's careers without any sort of credible evidence. Joe Biden's in the same spot. There's compilations with him being extremely touchy with kids and some young women and he also has an accusation in the past of touching a democratic staffers hair and caressing her. I don't think this derails Biden's campaign enough to make him lose out on the nomination (because there isn't a chance in hell Sanders attacks him on it) but I think people on Trump's campaign are going to have a field day with Biden's touchiness around women. No doubt some super pacs are gonna air the compilations of him grabbing women on camera or bring up this recent accusation against him. As if Biden did not have enough to deal with in regards to attacks against his cognition. I don't think Biden has a clear path to victory if all of this keeps up. He's a risky candidate to choose and I think we're going down the same road in 2016 where Trump will win due to an unpopular candidate with people staying home.

Well, she went to the #MeToo people and they didn't want to help her at all! They are bought out by the establishment like most institutions out there.

We can expect this to be ignored by the media and buried. Trump doesn't have an incentive to go there and visit that subject since he has his own dirty laundry. Although Trump is unpredictable and Biden's potential voters are much more likely to care about that sort of think than Trump's.

Don't expect much to come out of it. When it comes to people the establishment doesn't like, or narratives the establishment wants to go through, we're supposed to believe women, no matter the lack of evidence or potential agenda. When it comes to their anointed candidate, we're supposed to marginalize them. Figures.

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Quote from: Gyfts on March 27, 2020, 11:23:24 PM

Why is it in the year 2020 every major politician is implicated in the #MeToo movement? If you want to go back to the Kavanaugh hearings where #MeToo was essentially used as an excuse to believe all women and stop a conservative nominee for the Supreme Court, you'll see the movement has been abused to destroy people's careers without any sort of credible evidence.

Because for most of history it was fine for men to physically and mentally abuse women, and when it wasn't openly accepted it still happened, but in general women did not feel comfortable speaking up, so men usually got away with it.

It's much easier for women to speak up now, so more of them do and are.

Of course there are dishonest women who will take advantage of that by making stuff up to get rich, famous or revenge.

So now, there are innocent men having their lives/careers ruined by false accusations. On the other hand, the guilty ones are being made an example of so that, hopefully, women are treated better in the future.

It sucks how easy it is for a woman to ruin someones life by telling a lie. The ones who are caught should have a fate similar to what the man they lied about would have suffered if they got away with it.

I'm glad that every young man in the country is witnessing this though, I feel like women will be treated much better as a result.

Quote from: Gyfts on March 27, 2020, 11:23:24 PM

I don't think this derails Biden's campaign enough to make him lose out on the nomination (because there isn't a chance in hell Sanders attacks him on it) but I think people on Trump's campaign are going to have a field day with Biden's touchiness around women. No doubt some super pacs are gonna air the compilations of him grabbing women on camera or bring up this recent accusation against him. As if Biden did not have enough to deal with in regards to attacks against his cognition. I don't think Biden has a clear path to victory if all of this keeps up. He's a risky candidate to choose and I think we're going down the same road in 2016 where Trump will win due to an unpopular candidate with people staying home.

I generally agree. It will be interesting if Trump himself brings it up directly, or just retweets a bunch of other people discussing it.

There's a chance the whole thing will be forgotten though, the woman definitely didn't pick the best time to try and fit into the news cycle. It would have to become a pretty huge story for CNN or NBC to even consider acknowledging it.

I haven't looked into it too much, but it looks like she accused him a while ago but didn't mention the ramming his fingers into her vagina then. She does have proof that she was on his staff when she says she was though, so that's something.

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What do you guys think will be Joe Biden's response, if any, to the recent sexual assault allegations he's been hit with? - https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/will-biden-live-up-to-his-own-principles/

Why is it in the year 2020 every major politician is implicated in the #MeToo movement? If you want to go back to the Kavanaugh hearings where #MeToo was essentially used as an excuse to believe all women and stop a conservative nominee for the Supreme Court, you'll see the movement has been abused to destroy people's careers without any sort of credible evidence. Joe Biden's in the same spot. There's compilations with him being extremely touchy with kids and some young women and he also has an accusation in the past of touching a democratic staffers hair and caressing her. I don't think this derails Biden's campaign enough to make him lose out on the nomination (because there isn't a chance in hell Sanders attacks him on it) but I think people on Trump's campaign are going to have a field day with Biden's touchiness around women. No doubt some super pacs are gonna air the compilations of him grabbing women on camera or bring up this recent accusation against him. As if Biden did not have enough to deal with in regards to attacks against his cognition. I don't think Biden has a clear path to victory if all of this keeps up. He's a risky candidate to choose and I think we're going down the same road in 2016 where Trump will win due to an unpopular candidate with people staying home.

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Looks like we will find that all the Dem nominees will drop out and throw their weight behind Biden. But the question is, will Biden eventually drop out and throw his weight behind Hillary? Or is the plan something more sinister than that?

Tulsi Pulled A Fast One On Everyone! All The News You Are Not Hearing Away From The Distractions

Quote from: http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/279063-2020-03-20-tulsi-pulled-a-fast-one-on-everyone-all-the-news.htm

In this video Luke and Tim go over the news you are not hearing on the establishment media sources because of the C word.

Topics covered:

Tulsi Gabbard dropping out

The case against the Russian trolls is dropped

Who is suing Jeffrey Epstein?

Tulsi Pulled A Fast One On Everyone! All The News You Are Not Hearing Away From The Distractions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjxpisetMDk

Cool

BADecker

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Just to show you that Dem leaders are a bunch of lowlife garbage, consider when George Bush, Sr., became President. Same said for his son, W.

Lots of people have found that their father/grandfather, Prescott Bush, supported Hitler with banking and shipping in WW2. I mean, you gotta make your money some how, right?

But...
Did the Dems ever bring this up when these two Bush's ran for President? Or wouldn't people have cared anyway?

We'll never know, because the Dem leaders didn't even try to show their people this side of these Republican favorites.

So, what goes on? Whose side are the Dems really on? Are they being pragmatists... simply not showing all the bad stuff of their opponents, so that their opponents won't show the bad that they are?

Consider this. From before day 1, Dem leaders have tried to wreck Trump with silly, little things that almost didn't mean anything. Why didn't they try to wreck the Bush's that way, with the knowledge about family influence with Hitler?

I'm not going to tell you that Rep leaders are any good. But you can see from this little example alone that Dem leaders are absolutely vile, and are absolutely attempting to screw the people they lead.

Cool

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Biden, Sanders to debate against backdrop of global pandemic

Quote from: https://apnews.com/089e28a9c26ce78718d8fdeaaef329e8

The fast-moving coronavirus was something of an afterthought in that debate. Now the escalating crisis is likely to dominate it. Rising infections in the United States and around the world have prompted a dramatic slowdown of global travel, upended financial markets, and raised questions about President Donald Trump's ability to lead the nation through a prolonged period of uncertainty.

Just two Democrats — former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders — remain to make the case that they are best-positioned to challenge Trump in November. Five other candidates who joined them on stage in the Feb. 25 debate in South Carolina have dropped out, with many rallying behind Biden's surging candidacy.

For both Biden and Sanders, the debate is a moment to display their leadership skills in front of what could be one of the largest audiences of the primary. They'll aim to draw a contrast with Trump, but also with each other, arguing that they have the right experience, temperament and policy prescriptions to lead the nation through a crisis.

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Quote from: Viper1 on March 11, 2020, 04:41:39 AM

Quote from: coins4commies on March 10, 2020, 09:12:23 PM

Fuck this country. People are completely brainwashed into voting against their own interests. I hope Trump wins in a landslide.

That's right. You tell everyone what their interests are cause they're too stupid to know right? Maybe you should also tell them what they can and can't say, what job they're allowed to work at and so on and so forth. Cause you would certainly know better than them what's best for them.

No. They tell me what their interests are. The majority want a single payer healthcare system and significant action against climate change. They don't intentionally vote against their own intersts but they vote for the wrong candidate for various reasons.

A. They think Biden is the one who supports those things
B. They think Biden "will come around" to supporting their interests once he gets in power
C. They have no idea who Bernie is or what his policies are

Notice you will never see me say that poor Trump supporters vote against their own interests because they are consciously prioritizing their interest of policing the bodies of random women OVER their own financial condition in the name of "saving the babies". Their votes match the totality of their political views. The same type of thing cannot be said about democratic voters.

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Quote from: KonstantinosM on March 14, 2020, 11:11:59 PM

Bernie Won!!!

The Northern Mariana islands

Bernie gets 4 delegates
Biden gets 2

I admit to not knowing the US had those islands.

Wait...

KonstantinosM

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Bernie Won!!!

The Northern Mariana islands

Bernie gets 4 delegates
Biden gets 2

BADecker

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I was over to Walmart a little bit ago. And in the checkout line - which was reasonably long - I was chatting with the old guy in front of me. "Yeah, " he said. "When I first came in, the store was so emptied out that I thought Bernie Sanders had gotten elected."

Cheesy

Topic: 2020 Democrats - page 31. (Read 12658 times)