Interesting perspectives and thanks for your work. I have a question and an opinion of my own.
Question is - Do you think there is a probability we may see a mini cycle top say near 100k and a decline to test 12k-15k lvls with a quick bounce up and towards 300k?
My opinion next cycle bottom - Whichever we may go towards 250k - 350k I think the next bottom should be around 12k-16k IF we have a longer bear market. Mainly because BTC production cost lvls are a good indication. As of now worldwide avg cost to make 1 Bitcoin is between 12k-15k and to be doubled by 2024 and BTC always gravitated towards its production cost lvls during the bear market (also as Satoshi mentioned in his white paper) and bottomed out 40-50% below its production cost lvl historically. So I guess the timing of the bottom would be interesting to see, if it were to happen before 2024 we could see even a quick sub of 10k lvls, post 2024 would around 12k-16k lvls from my understanding.
Would like to know your thoughts as well on my opinion
The significance of 100K is psychological, not technical. Hence, would expect volatility at that price point, but perhaps not a significant or notable top.
So far, it appears Fibonacci-based price levels are significant; see the faint horizontal lines on the following chart:
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-bncblx.pngThe above chart has drawn upon it the following Fibonacci-based price levels:
1. $9,756 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.236%
2. $19,640 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.382%
3. $34,575 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.500%
4. $60,864 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.618%
5. $136,152 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.786%
6. $219,866 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.886%
7. $379,693 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 1.000%
—The first three price points have served as notable resistance/support levels, but have now been overcome.
—Price has currently run into the fourth level above, around 60K, and has currently been meandering there for the last 13 weeks.
—Once price sustains a weekly close >60K, the next fifth notable level comes into play, around 136K —which is near the 100K psychological level.
A top near 100K and a decline to 12K-15K would represent a CYCLE-I top and CYCLE-II decline.
At this point in time, the Elliott Wave model will require a revision if price falls below 22-FEB-2021 low of ~43K, but the bull market would remain intact. However, a fall below the 18-JAN-2021 low of ~29K would likely terminate the bull market.
Thank you for your response brother. I am a full time trader and my method is Harmonic Patterns & identify accumulation/distribution phases using Wyckoff. However, I respect Elliot Wavers and I do think it holds a lot of weight when looking at macro picture as we are discussing now. I guess why I have an idea for a mini cycle top and head down and back to 300k?
Firstly I wanted to know if it would be a valid count from EW perspective. And I think most of the bigger hedge funds are still on the sidelines missed the whole move and/or risk allocation is very minimal, since we have new institutional investors in 2019 (their first bull market with BTC) we could see something that we have seen in 2013? something of 'new investors' psychology type of move? Meaning it had done over 20x and drop 85% and made another high after within a few months.
thoughts?
Also, I think your count on chart 5th wave is almost equal to wave 3 or greater which defies the rule of EW I think. 3rd Waves must be the largest out of all. I guess which is another reason I see a local top may be near 85k -100k (just a speculation) and down to 18k to begin a new Wave 1
In terms of time...
PRIMARY[1]: The first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1148 days)
PRIMARY[2]: The first bear market wave 2013-2015 (413 days)
PRIMARY[3]: The second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1064 days)
PRIMARY[4]: The second bear market wave 2018-2019 (364 days)
PRIMARY[5]: The third and final bull market wave 2019-?
In terms of magnitude...
PRIMARY[1]: 1,178 points
PRIMARY[3]: 19,601 points
PRIMARY[5]: 62,700 points (so far as of MAY-2021, and still underway)
Hence, wave-3 is not the shortest in magnitude, and so wave-5 can extend without limitations in price or time.