The Kondratieff Wave theory, or "K-Wave," says economies go through big cycles that last 40 to 60 years, with phases of growth, slowdown, crisis, and recovery. Based on this idea, 2024 and 2025 could be pivotal years where we start to turn things around—or even kick off a new phase of growth.
A Possible Turning Point
We’re coming out of a long period of economic struggles: rising prices, high debt, and slower global growth. According to K-Wave theory, downturns like these often lead to a reset. Many central banks are trying to fix things by adjusting interest rates and policies, so 2024 and 2025 could reveal if these efforts work and help the economy get back on track.
New Technologies Leading the Way
Each K-Wave cycle has been sparked by major new tech. The last big cycle was powered by the rise of the internet and digital tech. Now, we’re seeing AI, renewable energy, blockchain, and other tech booming. If these catch on widely, they could be the boost we need for a new growth phase, making 2024-2025 a time to watch for big moves in tech and investment.
Shifts in Politics and Global Policy
Big global changes often impact K-Wave cycles, too. Right now, governments are focused on issues like climate change, reshaping supply chains, and energy security. These shifts could lead to a big economic reset in the next few years, paving the way for growth.
So, according to K-Wave theory, 2024 and 2025 could be a make-or-break period—either we see more challenges or the start of something big.
Kondratiev's wave theory is an interesting theory, but no theory can predict the future with absolute accuracy. You write about the development of new technologies. However, in my opinion, the current state of most new technologies is disappointing.
For example, blockchain technology led to the creation of Bitcoin (digital gold, a global decentralized protocol for transferring value in virtual space). And this is very good! At the same time, blockchain technology turned out to be useless in almost all other areas of human activity.
Alternative green energy is not able to provide Mankind with the amount of electricity it needs. And modern Mankind needs a lot of electricity. In particular, Artificial Intelligence (a very important breakthrough technology) may stop developing in 2-3 years precisely because of the shortage of electricity. People of the 21st century did not build a thermonuclear reactor, and after the Chernobyl accident, nuclear electricity was recognized as unsafe.
As a result, many countries have abandoned the construction of new nuclear power plants, which may lead to a critical shortage of electricity in the near future.