Topic: 2024 Elliott Wave - page 2. (Read 1275 times)

The current uptrend starting from the low of 05-AUG-2024 to present, appears to be corrective waves at the moment.
Hence, guessing the following two scenarios, either of which eventually suggest a decline...

Thanks! I see that in your model you consider the "W" at the 53k dump before the 49k dump.

We can of course for now speculate that the development of the price after the 49k dump (your "a" bottom) may be the start of five impulsive waves:

- 1: wave up to 65k after the dump.
- 2: corrective wave down to 52.5k.
- 3: wave up to 67k, possibly extending higher if the 60k dump was only an intermediate correction. That's where we would be now.

So for the 5-wave pattern to form from this base, imo the following conditions would be needed:

- the wave 3 must go a bit higher without falling lower than 52.5k,
- the bottom of wave 4 must be above 65k (because an Elliott Wave 4 should not fall into wave 1 territory).
- and possibly: volume must pick up.

This would be however possibly a quite bearish outlook - it would be a wave 5 (according to my theory, alternatively it can be a wave 3) but it would not be sure if we can surpass the 100k in this cycle. It would be thus more mid-term bullish if your prediction was correct

Alternatively we could be still in wave 1, the important thing would be then to not see the sub-49k area again, but then it would take some time for this pattern to be confirmed.

Indeed, the 52.5 to 66k movement looks like a structure with five lower-degree waves. Much more than the movement from 49k to 65k which is comprised only from three lower-degree waves.

But how would the 49.5k to 65k movement fit into that picture? An "overshoot" inside the short-term bearish wave 2 (or 4)?

A set of five impulsive waves, in an uptrend, would be the first starting point to consider whether the downtrend is over; no need to wait for new all-time highs for such a consideration.

At this point, the waves still appear corrective, and so still expecting a decline to either 37K or 44K, current guesswork as follows...

I'm not an expert on Elliot, but the rise since 6/Sep ($52.5k) looks like an impulse,
and what it's doing since 27/Sep ($66.5k) could be its correction.

A new impulse would be confirmed if the price breaks above $66.5k

Thanks for the explanation. I have looked a bit into Elliott waves again and it seems you're correct, the "invalidation" of corrective waves doesn't occur in the same way than in the case of impulse waves.

The volume of the wave since the August low seems to be indeed lower than the last part of the previous bullish wave (late 2023 to March 2024), so that would fit for the rules for corrective waves, and also lower than the downtrend from March to August which could be described as a wave A like you proposed in your chart.

An alternative assumption could be however:

- Wave A: March to late April (73k - 56.5k)
- Wave B: late April to late May or early June (56.5k up to 72.5k)
- Wave C: early June to early August (56.5k down to 49k).

On a whole I think your subdivision follows Elliott wave rules more convincingly. So let's see if we indeed see a deeper dip still. From fundamentals' point of view I doubt it, despite of today's dump.

So it would be interesting what would, for you, be the event invalidating the "irregular B wave" theory, i.e. what josegines already asked. I think if we see prices close to 100k with as much or more volume as in March this should be the case, or not?

Corrective waves which develop new highs or new lows beyond a five wave impulse, are known as Irregular B-waves.
Markets can remain in an Irregular B-wave for quite some time, with considerable measure.

For example, here is the DJIA30 index, which has been in an Irregular B-wave since 17-APR-2024 to present, at all-time highs...

From my (limited) knowledge about Elliott waves, I guess a significant break out of the 49-73 area to the upside would invalidate the assumption about a "corrective" wave. AFAIK a corrective wave cannot not get significantly higher or lower than the last high or low (at the trend change).

However, we're still not there. 66.5k, the last high, is even still perfectly inside of the slightly bearish corridor which started in March. Its slope is so flat that we would only break out near 70k. And the final invalidation of the current short-term bear market would only occur if we surpassed the 73.5k significantly.

My own (non-TA) assumption is that the probability of >73.5 k is now slightly higher than a dump <49k. There are a lot of external factors just aligned which point to a more positive development, mainly the interest rate decreases by the Fed and the ECB, but also some emotional-psychologic factors: we can cite the assumption that October and November are bullish months for Bitcoin's price, for example, but also the relief that for example the MtGox dump was far lighter than some expected, or didn't exist at all) in this case would "overrule" any TA-based prediction.

Another factor pointing to the assumption that 49k was a local bottom is that altcoins have stabilized and are beginning to outperform Bitcoin in some cases. Altcoins are an indicator for retail investments.

An impulsive set of waves, signalling a new uptrend, will emerge before new all-time highs.
So far, no impulsive waves since the 14-MAR-2024 high.

but there will be a level from which the count is invalidated, 80k, 90k$...

Regardless of a new all-time high, the waves still appear corrective.
So, still expecting a decline to at least 44K zone.

From what level can we say that we are in a new impulse, that the correction is over?
surpassing ATH?

For both crypto and equity markets, the Elliott Wave structure of the 'crash' appears incomplete.
After the current bounce, expecting another leg lower, perhaps on even higher volume.

On Monday of the market crash, there was quite a bit of volume in BTC, consistent with a capitulation.
Do you take the volume into account?
Or, despite that high volume, do you think the price could make a lower low?
August and September are bad months for BTC, your last count would fit, but I have doubts because of that high volume.

Current rebound appears to be a corrective dead-cat bounce.

Expecting the MINOR-2 wave pullback to be a A(a-b-c)-B-C(a-b-c) structure, concluding at either 44K or 37K zone...

Congratulations!
Do you know if wave 2 is over, or if it can still fall further, up to $44k (50%)?

Yes, the COVID crash was very steep, but the daily/weekly/monthly candles managed to close above the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level...

I'm not convinced about the 38.2% retracement being that important. In the last bull run without drastic external influences (I'm referring here to the "Covid crash" in 2020), which was the rally between 2015-2017, there were a few times when the price indeed retracted by a bit more than a third, but that were only flash crashes (e.g. the post-halving dip in 2016 from 750ish to 500ish, and the 1130ish to 780ish dip in January 2017 caused by the discussion about the allowance of Bitcoin futures contract at this moment - rally had started at $135 so it was in both cases probably less than a 38.2 % retracement).

The 53.5K dip was imo already close enough to that kind of retracement, and that the dip stopped before reaching the 51k level predicted by Fibonacci retracement hypothesis can be perfectly explained by the lowering volatility due to increased liquidity we've seen from 2016/17 to 2024.

As I already wrote before (to justify that I'm not thinking we're currently in a "minor 2" wave but in "minor 4" or even already in "minor 5" if the 53k dip was the low) I'm in general of the opinion that technical indicators like Elliott waves always have to be employed together with an interpretation of market sentiment. As the Elliott wave theory is justified by mass psychology effects, using it in a purely mathematical way could lead to wrong conclusions.

Fibonacci levels are even more difficult to justify scientifically, however I'm also interpreting them as mass psychology phenomenons: it's the points approximately where some traders who sold near the top / bought near the bottom are likely to close positions because they may have achieved their goal with that trade. But if you interpret them in this way, then it loses importance if the retracement was of 35% or 40% or 38.2%.

Conclusion: It could still go down to <51k, but I think the probability is quite low.

Elliott Waves are often related to each other in Fibonacci relationships; see here:
https://www.elliottwave.com/waveopedia/fibonacci-relationships/

From the 21-NOV-2022 low to 14-MAR-2024 high, a five wave impulsive structure appears to be complete —the first wave of the bull market leg.

Typically, this first leg is retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% which is around 51K.

For those who do not understand why and how that works, could you explain to us why do you expect a drop to 51k? Or even more? I am looking at the chart, and the weekly moving average seems fine, and the indicators that I check, or even something as simple as fear/greed index type of stuff, all of them shows a potential to grow a lot more. That's something more realistic, reaching to 70k from here, wouldn't be that hard, we are talking about 5% or so, that would be very likely and happens even daily, wouldn't be a shock to anyone.

What you are talking about is a drop beyond 20%, and I do not think that it would be possible at this point, and I am not just saying that because of my gut feeling, which also says that it won't happen, but I am putting this based on EMA and weekly, even BB says so, I feel like it doesn't really look like something that could be happening. But I have never used Elliot Wave before, so I would like to learn, what that means, how that works, and how is that showing something closer to 51k, which is such a huge drop. If you could explain that, it would be lovely so that we would be able to check it ourselves as well whenever we want to instead of bothering you.