Topic: 21 millions bitcoiners - page 4. (Read 4342 times)

I think US$ 10K per 1 Btc logicly will be happen soon for the next several years and we dont have to wait for 21 M user of bitcoin..cause it will happen very soon

You are regurgitating common answers to common misconceptions about bitcoin that has nothing to do with what I said.

It has nothing to do with fractions or satoshis. If there are 21 million bitcoins, and there are 21 million bitcoin users, and each bitcoin is worth 160k, then by default of those parameters, the average holdings per bitcoin user is worth 160k USD. That is the definition of average.

And because the wealth of bitcoiners closely reflect the wealth of average people, the above scenario is VERY unlikely to happen. The key here is the limiter of 21 million bitcoin users. Without that assumption, then anything goes. But that assumption limits a lot of scenarios.

Man, think in fractions.
If one Bitcoin in future will value 1 million dollars, this means you will be able to buy with one Bitcoin, 1 million dollars of stuff.
That doesn't mean that a person that has 50000$ can't buy a fraction of Bitcoin: that fraction that evaluates to 50000$, and still buy stuff for 50000$ worth of Bitcoins.
Can you understand this mechanism?
It's only difficult to accept it because of the STRETCH that will be reached by Bitcoin value.

That is not true. I never said bitcoins can't reach 160k/coin. I'm not talking about the value per coin. I'm talking about the amount of wealth the average bitcoiner holds.

We know that bitcoiners are pretty much average or slightly above average in terms of wealth, based on surveys taking by coindesk etc. The average person is worth ~50k USD. So how can the average bitcoiner have more than triple that amount in bitcoins? Note that we're not even considering their other assets. They won't be putting absolutely everything they own into bitcoin.

It just isn't possible. It has nothing to do with the technology or how much bitcoin blockchain should be worth. Simply that given only 21 million users, a value of 160k isn't possible. But with 2.1 Billion users, 160k is totally possible.

Obviously if the demand is bigger than the supply, the price goes up.  It will go to levels where some
buyers and sellers agree on the price, just like any other scarce resource.
This isn't rocket science.  Just like premium domain names became worth millions of dollars once
everyone realized they wanted one and there weren't enough to go around.  The only difference
is that Bitcoin is divisible, and that actually will help bring the demand even higher because it eliminates
barriers to entry based on price, thus increasing the market for buyers.

I don't like this your spirit, it means you can't understand what I write.
I may be wrong, but you are being a bit too presumptuous in your statement for my taste.

You say: nobody will sell bitcoin if that's the dominant currency.
That's in part true.
But think for a moment: why are people selling $ or €? THESE ARE DOMINANT CURRENCIES.
The only problem will come when there will be so few shops around accepting fiat currency, that nobody will want to give you some BTC in exchange for fiat: what the hell will they do with that currency?
Not your business: there are always people less clever than others that remain stuck to something even when it's going to be completely useless.

There are people still using light bulbs, just because a led light is more expensive than holding that light bulb.
They can't even understand how much electricity they pay every year with that bulb.
Other people can't even believe you can have an electric scooter and pay 1.3 € for 100 Km travel.

There will probably be some communities that will want to remain on paper currency because "fuck government wants to spy our every move with online transactions! I won't allow them!" in example (I heard a lot of this).

So, dude, it's ok, I may be wrong, but what I write has a sense, maybe you can't understand it fully now, but you will in the future.

Also, the fact that Zimbabwe has choosen dollars doesn't change a bit my reasoning: one day, some unlucky retarded guy will still have 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, will go to the bank and the bank will give him 5$ for that. Or more possibly, 5 uBTC.
 And those may be his savings of one life.
That's exactly what will happen with Bitcoin: somebody is first, somebody is last. The last ones will cry.

I like gentlemand's explanation/prediction the best. I agree, if the demand is through the roof and there are over 21 million actual bitcoin users, many people would likely stop selling or saying "yea I'll sell you one for a billion dollars". 

It's not the first time a country replaces its own currency with another one.
Latest example is Zimbabwe: http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/in-zimbabwe-1-will-cost-35-000000000000000-local-dollars/article7309953.ece

I don't know how this worked in the past, but seeing Bitcoin is not being possibly regulated in any way, it will probably go that early adopters like us are paying nearly nothing for it now, while in the future the price for one Bitcoin will increase considerably. Or better: exponentially, as we are just a small fraction of world population.

Now, this doesn't mean a person will have to buy always 1 BTC: that's simply impossible, also because there's only 21 millions.
So it's already in the blueprint that people will use mBTC or even smaller amounts like uBTC will be used for everyday exchanges.

Now the Bitcoin market cap is over 4 billion $.
This will continue to grow, up to a point where the Bitcoin market cap and the $ in circulation will be the same.
At that point, not only Bitcoin will grow in value due to increased market request, but $ inflation will begin to become unbearable.

The last persons on the planet buying Bitcoin, will buy it at a value that could well be 1 BTC = 1 billion $ (of todays value, in future, $ inflation could change that A LOT, it could be trillions).
But those persons won't be buying 1 BTC, they will buy a fraction of it, like 2 mBTC in example, or some uBTC in exchange of some thousand dollars: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/how-much-is-a-mbtc-equal-to-86894

So don't think that "one day there will be no $ to buy BTC, so that's impossible".
Think that 1) everything is possible, but even more, 2) replacement will happen slowly, more probably everybody will have some $ together with BTC for a long time yet.
Shops will accept BTC and $ for a long time.
But one day many shops will just want to cut out $ and live happy with BTC.

There's also another scenario: once one government will see Bitcoin can't be stopped, and its fiat currency being overwhelmed in inflation, it will declare its fiat currency obsolete and make it mandatory to replace it with Bitcoin before it goes out of course.
That will be probably the point when all fiat currencies will collapse and Bitcoin price will boost in a completely unpredictable manner: nobody will want fiat currency anymore, so from that point on, fiat currency will get away from the scenario, because it will be less and less accepted in venues.

Ye, still predictions can be made, and the game is fun 

Exactly, we can't talk about what is or isn't realistic when brand new technology that can discover we can do now things we didn't even thought about before. The price is indeed invaluable. If you told anyone back in 2009 that BTC would reach 100 you would be deemed mentally insane. Imagine if you said 1000, or higher than gold.
Thing is, the future is an white paper not written yet, anything is possible.

Can you tell how it could replace fiat? I se no possible way that could ever happen. If fiat should fail there is no way to buy bitcoin with that fiat since noone would sell and there is no way of getting bitcoin spread around without everybody buying it.

Mhhh that's quite unrealistic: consider all those companies that need hundreds or thousands of Bitcoins to work, like in exampe remittances services.
But you are right that some people will just want that ONE BTC in their pocket, because why not
The problem is, price will rise... and rise... and rise... to a point where very few people will manage to get that ONE btc.
Bitcoin value will be so high that only fractions of BTC will be bought by common people.
That's why we early adopters, even today buyers, are very lucky people.

Of course it's like you say: that 21 millionth user I chose is just to make a "round count" with all the BTC that can ever be mined.

We are already more than 1 million around the globe now, probably around 1.5 millions.
I think we'll be 2 millions by the end of 2015.
Considering a geometric growth, we'll probably be 4 millions by the end of 2016 (I still take into account the fact that ALL of us actually using Bitcoins are open minded, tech savvy, more or less young guys, and for the rest of people it's more difficult to make them Bitcoiners, so there WILL be a brake into mainstream penetration, to geometric growth).
7 millions by end 2017.
12 millions by end 2018.
We'll probably hit 21 millions Bitcoiners before end 2019.




Mhhh don't consider the 21 millionth bitcoin, but the 21 millionth BITCOINER 

If my prevision is right, by 2019, the 160000$ growth may be even very underestimated.
Now more actors are coming into the game: banks, credit cards, altcoins and more.
There will be a period of "natural selection" that could keep slowing down Bitcoin adoption while people try this and that altcoin or credit card alternative, only to find that, in the end, Bitcoin is really all they need

The problem is: what do you mean by realistic?
Maybe in 2011 people bought or mined Bitcoin in hope to have, one day, 10$ per Bitcoin.
Now they have 270$ per Bitcoin.

Now, if you think that in a not too far future Bitcoin will see a future of in increased market request, price will rise accordingly.
There's no escape to that.
So yes, now your BTC values around 270$, but while the system gains reputation around the world, price will rise.
And nobody can know how much it will end up reaching.

You won't be cashing out... ever, if Bitcoin will hold up, because Bitcoin will REPLACE fiat currency.
You will just... use it.