Topic: 21 millions bitcoiners - page 5. (Read 4342 times)

21Million users is different from 21 million coins in existence. We'll probably hit 21 million users long before the 21 millionth coin is mined (which is expected to happen in over 100 years). Remember that the mining package won't be in single coins at that point, it's possible that the 21 millionth coin is never mined because it would be way to expensive to do so. Perhaps the person that earns that coin is the one who mined it, for nostalgic sake.

I wonder what your price would be in present value dollars (accounting for inflation over the next 120 years)? The value of today's Dollar would only have to inflate 551x for $160,000 when the 21 millionth coin is mined to have the spending power of today's $290.

if 21 million users meant a BTC value of 160,000, that would imply that the average btc owner has 160k in bitcoins.

Is that realistic? I don't think so. What's a more realistic number? Probably somewhere around 1,000-2,000. So that's what the price will stabilize at, assuming the number of users stay at 21 million long enough for stabilization, but not so long that bitcoin stagnates and becomes irrelevant.


But if it was during a huge pump, perhaps because some garage geniuses created killer apps for bitcoin, then it could go an order of magnitude higher.

Once you are aware that Bitcoin exists something enters your mind: You are on a never ending battle to obtain at least 1 full BTC. I think every single person that is supportive of BTC owns or is on a mission to obtain at least one.
If 21 million have that mindset, the price would explode.

Even if we reach 1 Million in 10 years or more, how many of us, do you guys think, will be tempted to cash out at 5.000 Dollars? 20.000 Dollars? 100.000 Dollars? Because we'll never be sure if it hasn't been the peak.

Nobody knows that, only estimates can be taken.

Found this article stating 1.3 million users: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-users-approach-5-million-mark-2019-juniper-research-reports/

But I suspect is far below that number.
I'd say we are around 700000-900000 holding more than 0.2 BTC of value.

the last estimate was talking about 3M or 3.5M users base for bitcoin, i don't know how reliable it is but it should not be so far away from reality

if you consider 4B with an users base of 4M , with an users base of 4B we can have 4T in market cap, if we follow a simple linearity

So, I have to ask... does anyone know the ballpark figure of how many regular Bitcoin users there are now?  It's not even close to how many wallets there are, so what number are we looking at?

It's not IF, but WHEN.
And when that'll happen, Bitcoin trustees will have to add a couple of decimals after the dot.

But 10% of world population is not 21 million, it's 750 millions.

yep and a lot more that will come for sure.

btw about the main question, just omagine if only mmm arrounda 10-15% of the world population start to use it, can you imagine that?


if this happend 160000 $ will be to low

Litecoin has the second biggest blockchain out there. that has some value too. it will not win against btc, but to be no.2 is not bad.

I think there are a few legitimate coins that serve a purpose and deserve a big marketcap.
XMR for the extra anonymity for the lack of a better solution for the anonymity problem with Bitcoin right now.
Storj for the decentralized storage features.
Maidsafe for the decentralized internet (really ambitious project).
Ethereum is maybe way too ambitious actually, and may fail because of that, but I guess is worth looking at as well.

They'll be like cockroaches. Nothing will kill them off and there'll always be a tiny hard core bleating at each other on here or elsewhere about how they're about to turn the corner.

Alts that fill specific purposes may thrive in a quiet way or just be eaten by a layer on top of BTC.

Alts offer the same pointlessness as BTC appears to the wider public now. Why would I use my BTC to buy LTC to buy something? Less people will accept it and there's another layer of volatility on top.

This is a thing I love to talk about.
My thought is that REPUTATION is the biggest point in favour of a cryptocurrency at the moment.
This because cryptocurrencies are NOT trusted by the mainstream, and thus the one that will boom is the one that will have most users, because more users mean more reliability.
This is why Bitcoin is becoming more and more solid along time.

But of course there are other considerations to do.
Bitcoin is NOT the best technology around. And this could be its damnation in the future.
BUT, it's also true that Bitcoin technology CAN be updated.
So, let's say that Bitcoin WILL be kept up to date technologically, WHAT would a person push to invest in, say, Litecoin, instead than in Bitcoin?

Think about it: Bitcoin is the most implemented crypto around the world.
Sure, you can't use it so often or easily yet, but that's growing, while other crypto are at the bar. Frozen in there. Just used as a mean of exchange between themselves.
So get into a common person, that will want to buy a crypto in 2 years, why would they orient to Litecoin, instead than Bitcoin, that has been adopted by far more people, implemented in far more shops, and has (and will probably have) a far more solid value?

Be clear that I LIKE very much Litecoin, because it's capped higher, and I consider the 21 million Bitcoin cap too low.
But as Bitcoin CAN be made more granular, also this problem could disappear probably very quickly in the future, if needed.

Anyway, this is the real slot machine of the future: will altcoins survive? How many of them?
I think maybe 3 or 4 will survive, for a period and, unless Bitcoin is destroyed for some reason we can't imagine yet, other crypto will disappear in the end.

The crazy thing is that if you really look at the numbers, and consider that a reasonable number of people around the world start using bitcoin as a storage of value, then those numbers (500k-1mil) are not far fetched at all.

With the recent developments (nasdaq, citi bank, etc) I think btc awareness is growing, and we are fast approaching a turning point.

That being said, I don't think all that money would flow in to btc exclusively.  I think that what would happen is that other, better coins would have their caps raised as well.  For example a rise in ltc makes sense as the transaction time is much lower, or maybe one of the anon coins would get boosted.

Either way we are in exciting times.

That wasn't the main problem in his post, dude... would have been glad if it was 

You don't seem to understand what I meant.
I didn't talk about WALLETS, I talk about USERS.
I know there's a huge number of wallets out there and they in no way represent the real number of users.
I myself had installed and uninstalled at least 6-7 different software wallets and subscribed to several websites with webwallets.

Also, it looks you are really badly informed on how the MtGox question brought the value of Bitcoin to the stars.
It was MtGox itself manipulating the market and sending Bitcoin value to the moon, NOT the fact that MtGox was caught.

Also, there was no real "value loss", unless you bought Bitcoin at those unreal prices (and those who did... well... lol), because the REAL price was before MtGox manipulated the market.

The loss of value is due to several reasons, but nobody can say which is the most influencing.
Personally, I think many are selling Bitcoin because they didn't see their investment come true in an year or two. That is naive, but they are probably dumping because of this. They expected Bitcoin to be adopted by millions and millions of people in a couple years? Extremely naive.
Also, mining difficulty hit a wall and this took off some value as well.
But just wait that the number of Bitcoins goes from 25 to 12.5 per block...

So, basically, if you think that Bitcoin will decrease in value, as more and more people will increase its reputation and adopt it, you are COMPLETELY out of way.

coinbase has a wallets in circulation chart

it's many millions and the more wallets they put out the cheaper btc gets

so 21 M wallets would be 30 buck btc if you look at the most recent growth of users to value the past 18 months

lot's of new users and value is way down

so recent data shows the more people with btc wallets or btc, the less value it has

now if you got data that shows something the last 18 months use it

the big hype in btc was related to the negative news, the big bust of the pirate

oh btc is used by drug dealers, let me get some

bingo, 50 buck btc went to 1200 btc

then it's been in free fall since

millions of new users and huge value losses

so to say 21m wallets means X value has no basis in reality

you look at the big value bubble it was negative news saying btc was how drug dealers moved money around

bingo lots of newbs buying and price spike

now users is growing in mega millions as coinbase wallet data shows

yet the value is in free fall

so more users puts the value around 30 bucks

if you understand the last 18 months of negative value growth and how more users did nothing to help the value

Totally agree, whales should sell their amount or they would have too much power.

Well that would mean one bitcoin would be worth more than $1 million. I thought that they could always add more decimal places if that were ever to happen.