Its not clear to me that raising the blocksize wouldn't cause massive amounts of node centralization. If right now running a node can be a problem for a lot of people, if you make the blockchain grow at twice the speed, I think it's going to be really hard to run a node. We need data before doing this, and the research done so far points at centralization of nodes.
bitcoin can work on a raspberry Pi.. meaning even a 2005 (11 year old) computer is atleast 2 times more powerful. and so a 5 year old computer or a 6 month old computer can handle alot more.
i do agree we need real data to back up this because all i hear currently is Laudas un-researched but scripted doomsdays. which is scaring people..
oh and by the way if laudas data on segwit is to be believed (190% capacity) and also blindly following blockstream rooadmap of making confidential payment codes by default.
then a 1mb maxblocksize+segwit+confidential payment codes = 2.85mb of real data for 3800* transaction capacity
as opposed to 2mb maxblocksize with tradition transactions =4000 capacity for 2mb real data amount
as oppose to 1mb+segwit(no confidential payment code) = 3800* tx capacity with 1.9mb real data amount
*(only if people switch to different types of private/public key signature types and do segwit transactions, expect less than 3800 due to not everyone doing segwit)
basically we should not force people to do segwit transactions to gain capacity. we need both 2mb+segwit to allow freedom of choice, zero control.
also if node distribution is the thing you care most about. also look into how many of the 6000 true nodes will blindly think pruned/no witness mode is ok.
also look into how blockstream think that the softfork is so safe people dont have to upgrade. meaning not only will it make old nodes not be full nodes because they cant verify transactions fully. but also that by not upgrading people cannot make segwit transactions so the capacity growth will not be the full 190% that lauda proclaims..
lastly. knowing that it does require people to upgrade to utilise. it is a sly way of making people upgrade. so essentially is not as risk free as you may think