I just ran by numbers and found that I still got a chance to make to the championship! First 6 players have already made to the finals. 7th is almost confirmed as well. That leaves seven players contesting for the last 2 spots. Efialtis and 1r0n1c stated earlier that they won't be playing the upcoming qualifier which leaves only 4 players fighting for the spot. Now considering that 15 players will play tonight's game, here is my chances to make to the finals:
Probability of winning the qualifier = 6.67%. If won, probability of making to the championship = 55.621%. Net Probability = 3.70%
Probability of coming second in the qualifier = 6.67%. If second, probability of making to the championship = 40.828%. Net Probability = 2.723%
Probability of coming third in the qualifier = 6.67%. If third, probability of making to the championship = 26.036%. Net Probability = 1.7365%
There is also a probability to make to the championship if I come 4th - 7th but chances are below 1% so I won't consider those.
Hence, the total probability of me making to the championship is 8.1635% (1 in 12 chance). Worth an effort in my opinion, what do you say guys?
xxx
Globb0
Hey Globb0,
Do you accept btc? I checked your channel last night but Twitch charges 40% commission on 'Bits', not worthy! Also, I don't wanna tip via PayPal due to privacy reasons. If possible, add your btc address on the channel.
This further increases by probability. Jk aside, you will be missed.