Oh well, I'm sure it evens out, but it would be great to have 50 BTC's right now
I had earned a total of 46 BTC when I found my first block. In the long run, yes, it all evens out.
With difficulty rapidly on the increase, does it really for small time miners? I think that is why the pools are so alluring.
That's actually a good point. Were I more awake, we could do some math on the topic. I do know that I SS'ed it and posted it all over the place...I was very happy. Just got it a few days ago.
You don't need to do math to know that for slow miners a pool is better. Even with my 760 mhps, I didn't find a block since the last difficulty rise (since 4/26 even) and the probability of me not finding one until the next rise is not small. So I might well miss a whole 2016 block with "relatively low" difficulty. With probability on the rise like nowadays, that's "missing out on a lot", cause I didn't mine anything at difficulty 109670, but would have in the pool.
As said above, though, switching to a pool now, then finding a block there and saying: "I should've continued solo, cause I found a block", is wrong. While the chances are the same, it happening in one parallel universe doesn't mean it happens in another, especially because we're not even talking about the same event (the block one finds solo looks differnt from the block he would've found at the exact same time in the pool (differnt timestamp, different key, maybe different txs).