Topic: [4+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); Overt AsicBoost; World First Mining Pool - page 466. (Read 4382714 times)

According to the expected return on my mining hardware rate (a whopping 32GH/s - woot) I'm actually pretty much on par with what I'm supposed to be mining right now, but it's really deflating when I see other pools finding blocks every 20-30...5 minutes when we've been mining for over 7 hours now. Maybe I should go read a book, or 10, and check back later and let it all average out. The more I watch the more anxious I get.... My wife said I'd be obsessed with this, she was right. I think that's the problem, I'm paying too much attention right now

Ya... I'm not dumb, I understand your usage of the terms, but academics and statistical modeling take a backseat occasionally during a discussion like this. Problem is no one is plotting the data, much less collecting it to quantify later for analysis; but I bet if you throw avg daily round times on a Pareto chart that this week and last show a major breakpoint in round length compared to a month ago. I feel like the reported "luck" is way off from what it actually is. We would get one 12 hour round per week before, now we almost get one per day.

I use "expected" in the mathematical sense, to mean "average". If it's not working out like that, then either you're not allowing enough time for variance to reduce, or you're not taking into account network difficulty changes, or there's a problem at Slush's pool. It's shouldn't be too hard to figure out which if you have enough time and enough data.

You'll need to average that out over more than one day. More like a couple of weeks, minimum (which means you'll have to account for difficulty changes too)

At such a low hashrate you'll find variance is quite large, and the scoring method Slush's pool uses further increases variance.

@InfiniteGrim - In what timeframe? Mine have dropped slightly over the past two weeks, but nothing like that!

@J_Dubbs, I agree.

I think it's exactly what it seems to be: exceptionally bad short-term luck. After sitting through this many bad days I do expect things to turn around, and for that reason I'm not considering other pools as an option. It eventually has to normalize, but this is certainly one hell of a crappy run.

I agree that it's been frustrating to see the round times take so long lately, but I'm not sure how that may be a fault of a pool - other than the overall hashrate...which we'd all have to pay for out of our rewards (as we've seen) if it's as high as some of the other pools. I've been watching who has been finding blocks and it's consistently three other pools that keep popping up over the past few hours (Eligius found three in 8 minutes about 40 minutes ago!! But twice the hash rate as Slush). I've found though that it kind of ebbs and flows and we get into a lucky streak from time to time as well. I have occasionally wondered what the difference would be between mining here and mining at another pool. I suspect it might average out, but I have no way of knowing for sure. I also suspect that if someone else had tried to figure that out themselves, but is reading this now, then they probably didn't see an advantage with sticking with another pool.

Anyone have any intel/data/info on that?

Definitely makes sense to expect more rounds per unit of time with more power behind the pool, however, that is clearly not how things are playing out in the real-world.

in the current situation I've gone from nearly .035  a day to .01 a day! LOL

Your share of the reward per round has dropped with an increase in the pool hashrate, but you can expect more rounds per unit time. Your expected reward per day is unaffected by pool size, only by your hashrate and the network difficulty.

This is BAD. Plus my share per round has gone from .0028 to .0020 with the pool growing. BOO

this is absolutely horrible, is slush pool bugged?  wtf....


current round 04:20 and counting...
21252   2013-12-24 01:35:34   2:29:07   1061380055   731744   0.01718930   276636   25.18080606    67 confirmations left
21251   2013-12-23 23:06:27   4:00:46   1706268412   1203652   0.01745420   276619   25.14980333    50 confirmations left
21250   2013-12-23 19:05:41   1:17:07   543900723   377598   0.01739071   276590   25.05315848    21 confirmations left
21249   2013-12-23 17:48:34   1:40:06   699175863   499812   0.01841003   276578   25.06629598    9 confirmations left
21248   2013-12-23 16:08:28   2:14:35   940745044   685218   0.01841584   276563   25.25027750    confirmed
21247   2013-12-23 13:53:53   2:08:13   890597460   648772   0.01726300   276557   25.08896758    confirmed
21246   2013-12-23 11:45:40   9:59:11   4171408261   2952397   0.01867614   276541   25.15083951    confirmed
21245   2013-12-23 01:46:29   7:42:39   3225287535   2304981   0.01832914   276464   25.00886149    confirmed
21244   2013-12-22 18:03:50   0:41:10   285150993   206763   0.01858770   276423   25.08059816    confirmed
21243   2013-12-22 17:22:40   4:28:39   1863121673   1336677   0.01736992   276415   25.09467844    confirmed
21242   2013-12-22 12:54:01   1:14:48   513520104   367428   0.01895368   276380   25.09484265    confirmed
21241   2013-12-22 11:39:13   0:45:18   312813691   217560   0.01679788   276364   25.08526456    confirmed
21240   2013-12-22 10:53:55   3:02:35   1263976228   902838   0.01798305   276361   25.03091715    confirmed
21239   2013-12-22 07:51:20   1:28:02   609858006   454708   0.01790538   276335   25.01759350    confirmed
21238   2013-12-22 06:23:18   2:29:43   1033782517   751354   0.01767631   276326   25.00514000    confirmed
21237   2013-12-22 03:53:35   2:05:26   873434861   626260   0.01724208   276309   25.07516360    confirmed
21236   2013-12-22 01:48:09   1:04:02   445846104   306594   0.01751612   276297   25.08008069    confirmed
21235   2013-12-22 00:44:07   0:31:04   215263719   164750   0.01792624   276290   25.07021854    confirmed
21234   2013-12-22 00:13:03   11:36:07   4869485213   3080170   0.01960207   276286   25.20665744    confirmed
21233   2013-12-21 12:36:56   4:49:31   2040992243   1417741   0.01740883   276206   25.04204200    confirmed
21232   2013-12-21 07:47:25   1:10:32   499330676   354913   0.01639210   276185   25.07522347    confirmed
21231   2013-12-21 06:36:53   4:16:34   1810725132   921501   0.01671394   276177   25.03722000    confirmed
21230   2013-12-21 02:20:19   1:43:31   728080133   400794   0.01645976   276139   25.04945416    confirmed
21229   2013-12-21 00:36:48   9:39:26   4091124633   2175028   0.01394349   276127   25.12559563    confirmed
21228   2013-12-20 14:57:22   4:35:30   1928606238   1045998   0.01380000   276067   25.17414052    confirmed

Well, the 30 day average is still at 97%, so it isn't off by that much in the longer term. 

Don't worry... it will come back.  It always does.

Our luck is horrible lately. Will we hit a point where this horrible luck becomes the new "normal"? I would think whatever it benchmarks against will adjust because we've been seeing longer rounds for a few days now.

Shorter rounds increase variance since you'll get fewer shares in and each share is worth more.

Have you noticed this increase over only a few short rounds (say, less than ten) or over many short rounds (lets say more than 20)? Also, how are you defining short? 0.01 x network difficulty, or 0.1  x network difficulty, or something else?

But the hash rate or the pool is the same? Are the rewards not assigned based on hashing power?

because somebody else makes less.

Why is it that I make 10-20% more on SHORTER rounds?

Realy?
EDIT: Sorry sow it was stated in a later post.

--------------------------


Yes, that's why it was implemented - (IF) you are a pool hopper you loose almost immediately.

It's not 1/3 or 2/3 of the round - it's a matter of ~20-30 min, so for a 11h round you may miss 10:30 of it and get the full reward (joining at the end) or miss the last 6% of it and loose all the reward you had

Case solved.  I believe you are correct sir!  Must be something still wrong with my Stratum Proxy. 

The exponential decay function was a killer making the first 2/3 of that round worthless to me because I missed the last 1/3.    On the next round, missing the first 1/3 did not seem to cost me anything in payout.   Makes me think I could have missed the first 2/3 of that round and still received roughly the same payout.

The exponential decay function is a hard master, punishing those who miss the end of a round and rewarding of those who work the end of a round.