4 Key Similarities to Previous Bull Market Corrections

davinchi

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Quote from: Hamphser on November 02, 2019, 12:51:47 PM

Quote from: beerlover on November 02, 2019, 12:05:51 PM

The reality is we can go back and find anything resembling the two time periods all the time. Look at yesterday and then look back on 10 years of bitcoin and I am sure there was a day that was exactly the same, look at tomorrow and it will be same like some previous day as well, today is just another day that was exactly like some other date. Basically, you can always find the resembles, the trouble is just because a week ago looked familiar for 7 days straight to some other 7 days straight doesn't mean the 8th days will be the same as well.

You can find days that look similar but you can't make predictions based on that which creates the whole issue. Hopefully we will one day reach to a level of price in bitcoin that we won't need to guess what it will be eventually.

Yeah, you were right and i agree with you that the coincidence happens very similar to the previous bull run will going to repeat in the present. They may look like similar but that doesn't mean that the results will be the same. Bitcoin is very volatile to think it that way, you may see some bull run today but on the next day you will see a sudden dump without a prior notice.

Some people believes in cycle but I dint believe, because there are so many things that could affect the value of bitcoin at a time such as government policy and others, imagine that government policy does not favor cryptocurrency in the past, and suddenly, the government just declared support for cryptocurrency, do we think that we can compare the growth that bitcoin will have when government supports it to when they did not support it, so if we had tied the activities of bitcoin to circle, how would these scenario that I give play out.

We just need to believe that bitcoin will have price growth, but not all these analysis that people usually do that I personal feel does not work much. Is it not someone that just claims that bitcoin will get to $16k in October? But, the month is over already and we did not see it.

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Quote from: exstasie on November 02, 2019, 02:38:45 PM

Quote from: BitHodler on November 02, 2019, 10:11:30 AM

What I find even more important is to actually sell a portion of my coins whenever the market seems extremely overbought, which is something I didn't do in 2017 but did do so this year. I can look forward buying lower without feeling bad.

The monthly RSI was above 70 from December 2016 to February 2018. So the market was extremely overbought at $3,000 but that was nowhere near the top.

How do you decide where to sell?

Divergence on the daily chart is something to pay attention to. If price goes up but RSI goes sideways or doesn't reach the same RSI as several days ago, price will probably go down soon.

That happened from december 7 to 17 at the ATH in 2017.

exstasie

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Quote from: BitHodler on November 02, 2019, 10:11:30 AM

What I find even more important is to actually sell a portion of my coins whenever the market seems extremely overbought, which is something I didn't do in 2017 but did do so this year. I can look forward buying lower without feeling bad.

The monthly RSI was above 70 from December 2016 to February 2018. So the market was extremely overbought at $3,000 but that was nowhere near the top.

How do you decide where to sell?

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Quote from: beerlover on November 02, 2019, 12:05:51 PM

The reality is we can go back and find anything resembling the two time periods all the time. Look at yesterday and then look back on 10 years of bitcoin and I am sure there was a day that was exactly the same, look at tomorrow and it will be same like some previous day as well, today is just another day that was exactly like some other date. Basically, you can always find the resembles, the trouble is just because a week ago looked familiar for 7 days straight to some other 7 days straight doesn't mean the 8th days will be the same as well.

You can find days that look similar but you can't make predictions based on that which creates the whole issue. Hopefully we will one day reach to a level of price in bitcoin that we won't need to guess what it will be eventually.

Yeah, you were right and i agree with you that the coincidence happens very similar to the previous bull run will going to repeat in the present. They may look like similar but that doesn't mean that the results will be the same. Bitcoin is very volatile to think it that way, you may see some bull run today but on the next day you will see a sudden dump without a prior notice.

beerlover

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The reality is we can go back and find anything resembling the two time periods all the time. Look at yesterday and then look back on 10 years of bitcoin and I am sure there was a day that was exactly the same, look at tomorrow and it will be same like some previous day as well, today is just another day that was exactly like some other date. Basically, you can always find the resembles, the trouble is just because a week ago looked familiar for 7 days straight to some other 7 days straight doesn't mean the 8th days will be the same as well.

You can find days that look similar but you can't make predictions based on that which creates the whole issue. Hopefully we will one day reach to a level of price in bitcoin that we won't need to guess what it will be eventually.

BitHodler

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Quote from: YuginKadoya on November 02, 2019, 08:39:59 AM

I am now more patient than ever because last All-time high I am not able to savor all of its glory because my hands are shaky that time, but I think with the timing and speculation by much great analysis in this forum I think we can handle some bull trap, and some dump that is many people are not aware of sometimes.

I wouldn't necessarily just focus on the analysis here on this forum because everyone is just guessing.... some guesses are more educated than the others, but what matters is that you follow your own plan and stick to it.

I personally only pay attention to the analysis here to see if I forgot about certain key areas or indicators that are relevant in the here and now. In other words, just to improve my own analysis where possible.

What I find even more important is to actually sell a portion of my coins whenever the market seems extremely overbought, which is something I didn't do in 2017 but did do so this year. I can look forward buying lower without feeling bad.

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: Wysi on November 02, 2019, 01:14:49 AM

Yes we are so much bothered about the bearish market that even if there is a price increase we think that it's a bull trap and whenever there is a small dump we think it's correction time, as a result we might miss out on bull run if we don't identify the thin like between bull trap and bull run and fluctuations and correction. Even I will be more active from now onwards to avoid missing out on bullish market.

Many are very bothered about the movement right now and just like me I am certain that I am caught because of the bull trap but because of certain speculation I think I will not miss out on what is the real increase and not, well getting active in the forum will surely help.

Quote from: kapalmabur on November 02, 2019, 02:14:51 AM

with your patience I'm sure you will enjoy the results later, indeed many people have not sold their bitcoin at ATH in 2017,
and are waiting for a new ATH, but from that experience makes us understand how to trade in crypto currencies,
obviously! very different from the rest, hopefully this year bitcoin and altcoin will recover

I am now more patient than ever because last All-time high I am not able to savor all of its glory because my hands are shaky that time, but I think with the timing and speculation by much great analysis in this forum I think we can handle some bull trap, and some dump that is many people are not aware of sometimes.

SaShiRaJaVu

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Quote from: kapalmabur on November 02, 2019, 02:14:51 AM

indeed many people have not sold their bitcoin at ATH in 2017,
and are waiting for a new ATH, but from that experience makes us understand how to trade in crypto currencies,
obviously! very different from the rest, hopefully this year bitcoin and altcoin will recover

The people who have not sold the coins when the market reached their all time high last time might not sell even if the market reaches another all time high valuation, some will book their profits and wait for the market to go down and pick them once again and some does not even bother about the market valuation as they are in for the long haul. The alt recover is doubtful as i do not see any huge rally coming up for any of the coins, privacy coins have a hurdle because of regulation and with Litecoin planning to become another privacy coin who knows what the future holds for these coins in terms of legal acceptance in regulated markets.

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Quote from: YuginKadoya on November 01, 2019, 03:10:44 PM

Quote from: Herbert2020 on October 31, 2019, 03:29:41 AM

Quote from: YuginKadoya on October 30, 2019, 09:52:25 AM

If there are similarities I don't really bother in any resistance at all, If Bitcoin gonna be in a bull run it will surely go beyond our expectations, and if you are seeing a major impact regarding the upcoming halving I think that is a good sign to say that we are in the midst of another all-time high, If the parabolic movement would trace its way back again then the bull market of 2016-2017 can be a grasp.

you blinked and you missed it!
bitcoin has been in a bull run for nearly the entire 2019. it is just that people expected bitcoin's bull run to be the exact same thing as the last thing they remember (end of 2017) so they are missing it. otherwise price is already up 220% from the beginning of the year and aside from the handful of corrections that we had, the price has been going up ever since it reached the bottom at $3100.

and that is the way all bull runs work, there are rises then corrections. and then rise again. what we had in 2017 was the end of the bull run which finished with a bubble. it will repeat again by the end of this bull run but until then we will continue having this type of rise which people miss out on!!!

I might be missing out the whole time bitcoin is in the bullish state, maybe because of the correction many had thought that they are still in the midst of a bear market, I might change the way I think about this movement that history is repeating itself at least not the movement right now, but thanks for correcting it I might just wait for certain increase of price but I will still keep the hold until the major all-time high again I will surely never missed out this time thanks for the info.

with your patience I'm sure you will enjoy the results later, indeed many people have not sold their bitcoin at ATH in 2017,
and are waiting for a new ATH, but from that experience makes us understand how to trade in crypto currencies,
obviously! very different from the rest, hopefully this year bitcoin and altcoin will recover

Wysi

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Quote from: YuginKadoya on November 01, 2019, 03:10:44 PM

Quote from: Herbert2020 on October 31, 2019, 03:29:41 AM

Quote from: YuginKadoya on October 30, 2019, 09:52:25 AM

If there are similarities I don't really bother in any resistance at all, If Bitcoin gonna be in a bull run it will surely go beyond our expectations, and if you are seeing a major impact regarding the upcoming halving I think that is a good sign to say that we are in the midst of another all-time high, If the parabolic movement would trace its way back again then the bull market of 2016-2017 can be a grasp.

you blinked and you missed it!
bitcoin has been in a bull run for nearly the entire 2019. it is just that people expected bitcoin's bull run to be the exact same thing as the last thing they remember (end of 2017) so they are missing it. otherwise price is already up 220% from the beginning of the year and aside from the handful of corrections that we had, the price has been going up ever since it reached the bottom at $3100.

and that is the way all bull runs work, there are rises then corrections. and then rise again. what we had in 2017 was the end of the bull run which finished with a bubble. it will repeat again by the end of this bull run but until then we will continue having this type of rise which people miss out on!!!

I might be missing out the whole time bitcoin is in the bullish state, maybe because of the correction many had thought that they are still in the midst of a bear market, I might change the way I think about this movement that history is repeating itself at least not the movement right now, but thanks for correcting it I might just wait for certain increase of price but I will still keep the hold until the major all-time high again I will surely never missed out this time thanks for the info.

Yes we are so much bothered about the bearish market that even if there is a price increase we think that it's a bull trap and whenever there is a small dump we think it's correction time, as a result we might miss out on bull run if we don't identify the thin like between bull trap and bull run and fluctuations and correction. Even I will be more active from now onwards to avoid missing out on bullish market.

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on October 31, 2019, 03:29:41 AM

Quote from: YuginKadoya on October 30, 2019, 09:52:25 AM

If there are similarities I don't really bother in any resistance at all, If Bitcoin gonna be in a bull run it will surely go beyond our expectations, and if you are seeing a major impact regarding the upcoming halving I think that is a good sign to say that we are in the midst of another all-time high, If the parabolic movement would trace its way back again then the bull market of 2016-2017 can be a grasp.

you blinked and you missed it!
bitcoin has been in a bull run for nearly the entire 2019. it is just that people expected bitcoin's bull run to be the exact same thing as the last thing they remember (end of 2017) so they are missing it. otherwise price is already up 220% from the beginning of the year and aside from the handful of corrections that we had, the price has been going up ever since it reached the bottom at $3100.

and that is the way all bull runs work, there are rises then corrections. and then rise again. what we had in 2017 was the end of the bull run which finished with a bubble. it will repeat again by the end of this bull run but until then we will continue having this type of rise which people miss out on!!!

I might be missing out the whole time bitcoin is in the bullish state, maybe because of the correction many had thought that they are still in the midst of a bear market, I might change the way I think about this movement that history is repeating itself at least not the movement right now, but thanks for correcting it I might just wait for certain increase of price but I will still keep the hold until the major all-time high again I will surely never missed out this time thanks for the info.

exstasie

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Quote from: buwaytress on November 01, 2019, 12:47:23 PM

Quote from: justdimin on November 01, 2019, 09:14:37 AM

I still think BAKKT doesn't have that type of volume to affect bitcoin price, sure it is a bit of difference and sure there could be some small ones but we are talking about bitcoin falling from 10k to under 8k and then above 9k, bakkt doesn't have that kind of volume to affect the price that much.

Even if it did have the volume, so what? I still think price and sentiment is what will affect BAKKT volume, not the other way round

Physical delivery does add a new element to spot market price discovery though. It means there is real arbitrage pressure between Bakkt and spot prices.

Let's say institutions are extra bullish on BTC. They start buying Bakkt contracts at high volumes, creating a premium well above spot market rates. This should drive the spot markets upwards because spot sellers will take their supply to Bakkt to sell for higher prices.

That's why it's all about the volume. If Bakkt is churning out huge volumes in a bull market and a premium exists, we can be fairly sure that institutions are driving the market up.

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Quote from: justdimin on November 01, 2019, 09:14:37 AM

I still think BAKKT doesn't have that type of volume to affect bitcoin price, sure it is a bit of difference and sure there could be some small ones but we are talking about bitcoin falling from 10k to under 8k and then above 9k, bakkt doesn't have that kind of volume to affect the price that much.

Could it be psychological? Could it be because people thought Bakkt would be huge and it wasn't when it first started and then became bigger so all of these were reflected by not only Bakkt itself but also people who doesn't use Bakkt at all but just watch it from afar and react accordingly? Sure, it is a possibility but are we really going to attribute these movements to Bakkt all thanks to some possibility? Some whale buying a ton and selling a ton has the same possibility.

Even if it did have the volume, so what? I still think price and sentiment is what will affect BAKKT volume, not the other way round -- and sure, sentiment drives people to buy, trading volumes drive sentiment even higher, and that cycle self perpetuates until the next stage of emotions kicks in when people start to take profit.

It's always been psychological, and always will be =)

But we got to stop kidding ourselves that the market moves because of Bakkt and Libra. People will get Bitcoin when they want, they won't wait for a tool to make it easier for them.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: duchiep37 on August 31, 2019, 11:44:19 PM

Similarities I & II: 100-week MA & 21-week EMA providing support

The start of this was the period during Q4 2015 and the beginning of January 2016 through which Bitcoin price ended the bear market with a parabolic move and found support at the 100-week MA and 21-week EMA.

To follow up on this analysis, the 50 Week MA (purple) had a bullish crossover with the 100 Week MA (silver) in May of 2016 (circled right), similar to what is likely to happen soon too (circled left) in 4-5 weeks by the current forecast, as long as the price holds above the $7500 level which doesn't seem unlikely right now.

Own work: dragononcrypto

The irony is while breaking below the 100 Week MA at $7750 "looked" incredibly bearish at the time, it failed to confirm by closing a candle below it, which also happened in 2016 too, in the second week of 2016 if you looked twice.

Febo

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Quote from: duchiep37 on August 31, 2019, 11:44:19 PM

The top of 2017 came at the end of a market cycle, which essentially started with the confirmation of the 100-week Moving Average (MA) and 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) during January 2016.

You found out the main reason why there is not many similarities. And you basically cant compare them. In 2017 we are close to end of Bitcoin cycle, in 2019 we are in second phase, from bottom up. Compare 2015 recovery with 2019 recovery. That is something to compare with. This time it started way faster.

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Quote from: justdimin on November 01, 2019, 09:14:37 AM

I still think BAKKT doesn't have that type of volume to affect bitcoin price, sure it is a bit of difference and sure there could be some small ones but we are talking about bitcoin falling from 10k to under 8k and then above 9k, bakkt doesn't have that kind of volume to affect the price that much.

Obviously, the Bakkt hype has died down already. Remember that we all have been waiting for this for a long time and people get tired.

Quote from: justdimin on November 01, 2019, 09:14:37 AM

Could it be psychological? Could it be because people thought Bakkt would be huge and it wasn't when it first started and then became bigger so all of these were reflected by not only Bakkt itself but also people who doesn't use Bakkt at all but just watch it from afar and react accordingly? Sure, it is a possibility but are we really going to attribute these movements to Bakkt all thanks to some possibility? Some whale buying a ton and selling a ton has the same possibility.

Exactly, it's more of a psychological aspect, specially when it go live and Bakkt's trading volume is kinda disappointed for many. But make no mistakes about it, people might joined the hype again when bitcoin price started to hit five digits again, remember when we have a jump of 20%-$30%? Bakkt volumes hits a all-time-high, so there might be correlation after all.

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I still think BAKKT doesn't have that type of volume to affect bitcoin price, sure it is a bit of difference and sure there could be some small ones but we are talking about bitcoin falling from 10k to under 8k and then above 9k, bakkt doesn't have that kind of volume to affect the price that much.

Could it be psychological? Could it be because people thought Bakkt would be huge and it wasn't when it first started and then became bigger so all of these were reflected by not only Bakkt itself but also people who doesn't use Bakkt at all but just watch it from afar and react accordingly? Sure, it is a possibility but are we really going to attribute these movements to Bakkt all thanks to some possibility? Some whale buying a ton and selling a ton has the same possibility.

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on September 15, 2019, 03:11:21 AM

The really major event for me is the block halving for sure.
Try to compare the chart of Bitcoin for every halving in the previous.
You can see huge movement of the price like for months before of the day of block halving.
This BAKKT event for me is already done in terms of price action on BTC, you think we can see a huge price movement on the day of BAKKT will start their trading?

We all agree that Bakkts influence still continues bit it wouldn't bring any explosive increase in BTC for now. Plus, there could still be a lot of potential candidates that could push BTC ahead depending om how they perform.
I believe im seeing the signs of the same bullish run BTC had in the past halvings and I'm not gonna just sit and let that happen under my nose. I believe it as such and well, hope that it would happen like that after all. Dont we all?

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Quote from: YuginKadoya on October 30, 2019, 09:52:25 AM

If there are similarities I don't really bother in any resistance at all, If Bitcoin gonna be in a bull run it will surely go beyond our expectations, and if you are seeing a major impact regarding the upcoming halving I think that is a good sign to say that we are in the midst of another all-time high, If the parabolic movement would trace its way back again then the bull market of 2016-2017 can be a grasp.

you blinked and you missed it!
bitcoin has been in a bull run for nearly the entire 2019. it is just that people expected bitcoin's bull run to be the exact same thing as the last thing they remember (end of 2017) so they are missing it. otherwise price is already up 220% from the beginning of the year and aside from the handful of corrections that we had, the price has been going up ever since it reached the bottom at $3100.

and that is the way all bull runs work, there are rises then corrections. and then rise again. what we had in 2017 was the end of the bull run which finished with a bubble. it will repeat again by the end of this bull run but until then we will continue having this type of rise which people miss out on!!!

YuginKadoya

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If there are similarities I don't really bother in any resistance at all, If Bitcoin gonna be in a bull run it will surely go beyond our expectations, and if you are seeing a major impact regarding the upcoming halving I think that is a good sign to say that we are in the midst of another all-time high, If the parabolic movement would trace its way back again then the bull market of 2016-2017 can be a grasp.

Topic: 4 Key Similarities to Previous Bull Market Corrections (Read 435 times)