Topic: 4 Key Similarities to Previous Bull Market Corrections - page 2. (Read 431 times)

The is the main issue, if you begin to try to find signs about why something happened then you are bound to find them but that doesn't necessarily indicates that those factors were responsible for the variation of the price of bitcoin, people want to predict the markets instead of accepting the reality that no one can, and it is easy to see why no one can predict them. There are millions of factors that affect the price each day and it is impossible for any single person to find out and measure those factors and come up with a strategy to take advantage of them.

It is better to just watch the market and try not to make assumptions about why the market it's moving the way is moving.

Not only you but every one who have been or seen the previous halving thinks that this is the only catalyst that can bring the price to its all-time-high. Perhaps the Bakkt price is already in, that's why in the recent weeks we haven't seen any good price movement to say that indeed it has impacted the price positively.

But we will have to see what comes after September 26. We just have like a week from now and see if this anticipated event could trigger another price boost.

Of course, you can draw similarities here, we can even conclude that the first halving and the subsequent numbers of day prior to the next ATH, 5xx days on the first halving and then 1xxx days on the second halving. So does it mean that we are going to see 2xxx days before the new ATH after the next block halving? It could be, but it's hard to say that it will happen that way because of so many factors specially how volatile bitcoin is.

See, one thing is for sure. That is in future bitcoin price will become big way more than 10k USD what it is now. This is due the deflationary supply of the currency. With passage of time the demand for bitcoin will increase but the supply will stop at a fixed time and the total number of bitcoin would be fixed. The rise of price in 2017 Q4 was due to the BCH fork making people accumulate BTC combined with the Bitfinex Tether pump to sell their bitcoins. Very less chances of such events repeating now. So sudden spike of huge price rise wont happen.

Gradual growth is organic and shows actual acceptance. Whether it is due to some new development or countries allowing crypto it will definitely boost the price.

Similarities can be drawn, and I think a lot of people are doing that already, some to the point of clutching at straws, if you ask me.

But I wonder about this particular period in the global economy, if that's a main difference to this coincidence of a bull market correction.

I mean, it's never been particularly healthy for any economy, national regional or global, not since 2009, but with actual steps taken in quantitative easing this year alone from US central banks and ECB, I daresay this is a major difference compared to the past corrections.

Could this be why we're not seeing stronger corrections? Bitcoin was barely at 15% of ATH, when it's been below 10% in the past corrections.

exactly same thoughts about the price I don't think so it will make any effects on price of cryptocurrencies its totally depends on market condition.

The really major event for me is the block halving for sure.
Try to compare the chart of Bitcoin for every halving in the previous.
You can see huge movement of the price like for months before of the day of block halving.
This BAKKT event for me is already done in terms of price action on BTC, you think we can see a huge price movement on the day of BAKKT will start their trading?

There should be this assurance by now that no one can claim to know where Bitcoin price is headed to. The best we can do is mere speculation because nothing is certain here. There is this forecast that Bitcoin will hit $16,000 by October but I am taking that with a pinch of salt.

BAKKT was not involved in the year 2017 when Bitcoin attain almost $20000 per BTC, so this fundamental News might not surge the price as people are speculating. But lets keep and watch what will happen in the next few days.

well the price broke the $9800



unfortunately the price failed to break the $10800 but it didn't fall much

Bitcoin Price Rejected at $10.8K as Crypto Market Braces for Bakkt

all attention is focused on the release of BAKKT, I hope this time does not disappoint us

While Bakkt clients will be able to deposit their funds into the Bakkt Warehouse next week on Sept. 6, Bitcoin price is trending downwards after falling below $10,000 in the run-up to the event.

So is this already priced in or the market cycles are just repeating themselves? Let’s take a look at some key similarities to previous bull market cycles.

Similarities I & II: 100-week MA & 21-week EMA providing support

A common discussion lately on Crypto Twitter suggests that there’s a confluence between the so-called Bitcoin (BTC) price “bubble” top of 2017 and the last top at the end of July at $13,935. In a sense, parabolic movements tend to repeat the same stages over and over again. However, there are some substantial differences between them.

The top of 2017 came at the end of a market cycle, which essentially started with the confirmation of the 100-week Moving Average (MA) and 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) during January 2016.

However, the top of July 2019 was essentially the first peak above the 100-week MA and did not face the euphoria comparable to the period in December 2017. So, are they comparable?

Basically, during the whole bull market of 2016–2017 there were several parabolic movements ending in a retracement.

The start of this was the period during Q4 2015 and the beginning of January 2016 through which Bitcoin price ended the bear market with a parabolic move and found support at the 100-week MA and 21-week EMA.

After this confirmation the market has seen several corrections of 30-40%, which are quite healthy for an upwards trending market.

With that in mind, it makes more sense to compare the previous parabolic movement towards the first parabolic movement coming out of the bear market in 2015, as that was the kickstart of a new cycle.

Relying on the chart, this could mean that Bitcoin price could face another test of the 100-week MA or the 21-week EMA to confirm the bullish perspective and face a period of accumulation prior to the halving event.

The past halving events on Litecoin and Bitcoin saw upwards price movements a few months prior to the actual event. If history repeats itself, we could see some upwards movements in Q1 of 2020.

Similarity III: 200-day Moving Average support

Another indicator of a bullish market is the support of the 200-day MA. During the previous cycle, Bitcoin always found support on the 200-day MA and, during the later phases, also on the 100 MA, which is currently moving around $7,500.

Meanwhile, the latest BTC price drop below $10K means it just lost the 100 MA, which is comparable to the start of the last cycle in January 2016.

Similarity IV: Altcoins getting crushed

The last few months haven’t been good to altcoins. While Bitcoin price is moving upwards and continues to range, altcoin investors are punished more and more by the market.

This leads to the fear of buying altcoins and we are getting stuck in a vicious cycle. However, we have been here before.

Back in 2015 — while Bitcoin was moving from $196 to $505 — altcoins didn’t follow suit. Instead, they began to move when Bitcoin price bottomed out of its first parabolic run on January 15, 2016 (the touch of the 100-week MA and 21-week MA confirming the bottom).

If we take a look at an altcoin market cap dominance chart, it’s easy to see that it has retraced down to the lowest level in two years, while the RSI is showing a level of 22. This means that altcoins were being sold heavily during the past period.

Notably, a potential support level and a trendline are coming into play. Comparable to the beginning of 2016, in which the dominance of altcoins fell from 16% to 8% — this occurred prior to big upwards movements. For example, Ether (ETH) went up by 1700% in the months after, Vertcoin went up by 800%, etc.

Comparing these two analyses with the technical point of view of the market, it is to be expected that Bitcoin needs a natural period of accumulation, through which altcoins will eventually catch up and move alongside with BTC/USD.

To date, altcoins have been following Bitcoin (e.g. Bitcoin price all-time high in December 2017, altcoin all-time high in January/February 2018).

In other words, this leads me to believe that altcoins will start to move as soon as Bitcoin is ranging/bottomed out from this parabolic move.

Total market cap excluding BTC

The total market capitalization (excluding Bitcoin) has shown a move upwards to the $125 billion area of resistance, which acted as a support during 2018 and retraced down since then.

According to the chart, it’s currently testing an important level. If the market is able to find support here (at $62–66 billion), the old resistance of November/December 2018 will act as a support.

This will lead towards a new higher low, and potentially the disbelief phase and a new cycle. The current market capitalization of altcoins is $66 billion, which is equal to the market capitalization of altcoins in March 2019 when the price of Bitcoin was $4,000. Simply put, this is the ultimate carnage for altcoin holders.

What scenarios are there?

In a bullish scenario, the price has to break the $9,800 level (old support before the dropdown) and reclaim that as support. If Bitcoin is able to do so, then we’re aiming at $10,800 again (trendline and horizontal resistance zone).

Bearish scenario

If Bitcoin won’t be able to break the $9,800 level again and turns it into resistance (or the $9,650 zone), the lower support levels at $8,900 and the possible area around $8,500 are likely to be tested, given the prior analysis of the 100-week MA ranging around $8,500 and the CME futures gap at $8,500.

(from: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-4-key-similarities-to-previous-bull-market-corrections )