Having previously worked in electronics manufacturing I think that saying a spike is coming in August is premature to say the least. The chips might ship later in the year than expected and once they do ship they can't go into play for at least another month and that's if a custom board can be fabricated in that amount of time. This doesn't include development time or testing for those boards, though samples may be sent out in advance. Once the chips have arrived they have to be machine placed on the boards and then they're either packaged for sale or relocated to a permanent facility with appropriate power and cooling.
All of this is neglecting the fact that the chips won't ship all at once or to the same person. It might take another year for all the chips to get powered up if they're being sold retail. The ASIC push will eventually cool down.
All of this is neglecting the fact that the chips won't ship all at once or to the same person. It might take another year for all the chips to get powered up if they're being sold retail. The ASIC push will eventually cool down.
This makes sense but it seems you're only taking into account Avalon chips. There's still Avalon batch 2, 3, BFL, and there's asicminer yet to come. So there most definitely will be a spike around the month of August.
