$5000+ bitcoin? - page 7. | Bitcointalksearch.org

solex

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: mp420 on May 21, 2013, 03:49:38 AM

Current Bitcoin can't be sustainably much over $400.

Justification: the 1MB block size limit and the fact that the price has pretty much grown hand in hand with the number of transactions per block (in the long time trend). We have free transactions now (for old enough coins). Eventually a minimum transaction fee for ANY transaction will be several dollars, when the block space scarcity really starts to constrict usage. If BTC adoption grows at the current rate, in a couple of years this scenario is going to be real. This will mean, by the way, that the block subsidy will be insignificant far sooner than most people think. At 20,000 tx/block and $1 fee per tx, assuming $400/BTC and current reward level, fees will be two thirds of total miner revenue.

I do not expect doing away with the block size limit until we've seen its economic consequences. Many influential people have gotten stuck in early 2011 and the "everyone must be able to run a full node in their cell phone" mindset.

+1, mp420 summarized my thinking exactly.

$400 is the most we will get until the block limit is made flexible or removed. The fear-mongering about nodes disappearing (centralization) is not shown with recent stats, which identify up to 350,000 active nodes.
http://bitnodes.io/
Many more than two years ago when it was more like 20,000

naphto

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Quote from: mp420 on May 21, 2013, 03:49:38 AM

Current Bitcoin can't be sustainably much over $400.

Justification: the 1MB block size limit and the fact that the price has pretty much grown hand in hand with the number of transactions per block (in the long time trend). We have free transactions now (for old enough coins). Eventually a minimum transaction fee for ANY transaction will be several dollars, when the block space scarcity really starts to constrict usage. If BTC adoption grows at the current rate, in a couple of years this scenario is going to be real. This will mean, by the way, that the block subsidy will be insignificant far sooner than most people think. At 20,000 tx/block and $1 fee per tx, assuming $400/BTC and current reward level, fees will be two thirds of total miner revenue.

I do not expect doing away with the block size limit until we've seen its economic consequences. Many influential people have gotten stuck in early 2011 and the "everyone must be able to run a full node in their cell phone" mindset.

This.

mp420

hero member

Activity: 501

Merit: 500

Current Bitcoin can't be sustainably much over $400.

Justification: the 1MB block size limit and the fact that the price has pretty much grown hand in hand with the number of transactions per block (in the long time trend). We have free transactions now (for old enough coins). Eventually a minimum transaction fee for ANY transaction will be several dollars, when the block space scarcity really starts to constrict usage. If BTC adoption grows at the current rate, in a couple of years this scenario is going to be real. This will mean, by the way, that the block subsidy will be insignificant far sooner than most people think. At 20,000 tx/block and $1 fee per tx, assuming $400/BTC and current reward level, fees will be two thirds of total miner revenue.

I do not expect doing away with the block size limit until we've seen its economic consequences. Many influential people have gotten stuck in early 2011 and the "everyone must be able to run a full node in their cell phone" mindset.

HappyBitCoinUser

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Everyone has opinions. So what do I think about someone elses opinion? Dunno, lack of interest, cause there is so many going around.

DoomDumas

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin are scarce.
Userbase growt is faster than the rate at wich bitcoin are generated.
Big pocket, big companies and a lots of average joe should join Bitcoin in the years to come.

5k$/BTC ?

It more than possible, IMHO, it's inevitable.

Before 2016 is my bet !

drdanishkhan

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Quote from: thoughtfan on May 20, 2013, 04:10:20 AM

Quote from: drdanishkhan on May 20, 2013, 03:24:35 AM

... frankly people are expecting a huge rally somewhere in the future so that they can cash out. fiat..

My point is 'hoarding' bitcoin is better for bitcoin than hoarding pm, bonds, stock etc. Spending bitcoin is better for bitcoin than spending fiat. And should Bitcoin's long-term deflationary nature lead some to save a bit more and spend a bit less, whilst this may not be ideal to fledgling bitcoin-dependent businesses right now I'm tending to think it can't be a bad thing for the Bitcoin economy further down the road.

I guess you're right..

julius

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Quote from: MarkLyford on May 19, 2013, 12:54:32 PM

I have a friend of mine at the conference this weekend and he has been speaking to a few people who think a $5000 + bitcoin could be possible.

Thoughts ?

I need to have your friend's drug dealer contact details. He is buying really good shit.

thoughtfan

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Quote from: drdanishkhan on May 20, 2013, 03:24:35 AM

... frankly people are expecting a huge rally somewhere in the future so that they can cash out. fiat..

That is an assumption I'm not seeing. Certainly there are many expecting a huge rally but on what basis do you believe people will be wanting to 'cash out'? Some, certainly, but far from most I suspect. And the reasoning behind my speculation is that anyone expecting another big rally is likely to believe bitcoin is not a flash in the pan and is therefore likely to be looking at it either as a long-term commodity investment as part of their portfolio or is holding onto it until such a time that more day-to-day transactions can be done in bitcoin. In the meantime if things they want to buy start becoming available and good value in bitcoin the likelihood is people will buy more bitcoin to spend rather than bitning into their long-term stash.

My point is 'hoarding' bitcoin is better for bitcoin than hoarding pm, bonds, stock etc. Spending bitcoin is better for bitcoin than spending fiat. And should Bitcoin's long-term deflationary nature lead some to save a bit more and spend a bit less, whilst this may not be ideal to fledgling bitcoin-dependent businesses right now I'm tending to think it can't be a bad thing for the Bitcoin economy further down the road.

BitWulf

newbie

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Quote from: drdanishkhan on May 20, 2013, 03:24:35 AM

Yes more the demand.. But you have to use the currency to buy stuff for it to be sustainable in the long run.. frankly people are expecting a huge rally somewhere in the future so that they can cash out. fiat.. i mean the whole idea of bitcoin was to get rid of banksters and their manipulated fiat.. kinda defeats the purpose of the whole thing when you convert coins back to fiat.. well its my personal opinion and most people tend to disagree with it..

Give me the ability to buy with my BTC and I will happily replace all my fiat. I hate the shit along with the thieving governments that control it.

Zangelbert Bingledack

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For bitcoin to be useful for spending more people need to buy and hold.

drdanishkhan

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Yes more the demand.. But you have to use the currency to buy stuff for it to be sustainable in the long run.. frankly people are expecting a huge rally somewhere in the future so that they can cash out. fiat.. i mean the whole idea of bitcoin was to get rid of banksters and their manipulated fiat.. kinda defeats the purpose of the whole thing when you convert coins back to fiat.. well its my personal opinion and most people tend to disagree with it..

BitWulf

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Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on May 20, 2013, 03:09:14 AM

I expect we'll reach $5,000 this year. It's less than 50x the current price, and we already had a more than 20x run over the past six months. It feels like we're finally reaching critical mass, as we must in order to maintain exponential growth.

Bold expectation to have and I don't think it will but I hope your right so I can buy a new house :p

Quote from: drdanishkhan on May 20, 2013, 03:13:14 AM

Its these kind of speculations thats driving people to buy and hold bitcoins.. for bitcoin to grow you need to actually use them.. buy stuff etc.. But with everyone speculating that the price will reach 5000 or 10000 or a million nobodys willing to actuallly use them.. if this goes on in the long run it wouldnt be good for the currency.. Sad

You sure about that? The more people that show interest and buy in, the greater the demand right?

drdanishkhan

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Its these kind of speculations thats driving people to buy and hold bitcoins.. for bitcoin to grow you need to actually use them.. buy stuff etc.. But with everyone speculating that the price will reach 5000 or 10000 or a million nobodys willing to actuallly use them.. if this goes on in the long run it wouldnt be good for the currency.. Sad

Zangelbert Bingledack

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I expect we'll reach $5,000 this year. It's less than 50x the current price, and we already had a more than 20x run over the past six months. It feels like we're finally reaching critical mass, as we must in order to maintain exponential growth.

Elwar

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Viva Ut Vivas

I recall paying 50 cents a gallon for gas back in the late 90s.

$5,000 a bitcoin compared to $120 today is not that big of a stretch at the dollar's current pace.

Bitcoin has a lot of room to grow. Hell, even of Bitcoin supporters only a handful use it for more than 75% of their spending. How many of your friends have bitcoins?

Compare that to the amount of people you know who have used PayPal.

alkuluku

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🙏

Quote from: Stunna on May 19, 2013, 02:35:47 PM

If mass adoption takes place then this is indeed a possibility. I don't see this happening within the near future however. The key to this will be through making bitcoins more consumer friendly and the only way I could imagine a price like this is if major fiat currencies fail.

I agree.

Stunna

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Primedice.com, Stake.com

If mass adoption takes place then this is indeed a possibility. I don't see this happening within the near future however. The key to this will be through making bitcoins more consumer friendly and the only way I could imagine a price like this is if major fiat currencies fail.

SamS

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Quote from: Realpra on May 19, 2013, 02:24:18 PM

Quite possibly.

Try to play with this tool. You can argue the assumptions are wrong, but it can open your mind.

That's cool. It would be nice to see a $ value for % of the world economy to give oneself a sanity check. And if you wanted to refine it further, you could add sector values for those sectors which Bitcoin might uniquely be suited for.

MarkLyford

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very interesting feedback guys, this is why I am growing to love this place.

Realpra

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Quite possibly.

Try to play with this tool. You can argue the assumptions are wrong, but it can open your mind.

Topic: $5000+ bitcoin? - page 7. (Read 15432 times)