Topic: $5,000 is the number - so get used to it. (Read 539 times)

Good point. The April-July 2013 period continues to be the closest historical parallel we have to our current market position.

That's when I was first getting really into trading. I remember the market felt completely dead during that summer.....like silent. And that June breakdown felt like a nail in the coffin, just like the breakdown last month did.

I was really fortunate to be heavily following Lucif (Masterluc) at that time. He called the bottom perfectly in July and while I was terrified, I ended up following him into the market, getting in near the bottom before the November bubble.

I'm drawing on that experience now, trying not to give in to the bearish sentiment currently enveloping the market.

April 2013 as I remember was just 'quiet' and people didnt know what it would do, back then mining still profitable so nobody was going away but alot of people just sold as they mined they didnt speculate or least from the pool and people I knew.   Eventually it kept a kind of steady price and then it grew gigantically for the rest of the year.    Quiet can be quite bullish it seems, even if people are moaning about the present for the future it can turn out surprisingly positive.    Going lower is possible but will it spike to a low, burn the hand of the sellers or settle out over time and then rise after a dead calm.


Thats the inverse of what I think when people get a bit carried away when price went to 13k, why not 20k why not 50k but the further it goes especially in a short period of time the more unsteady I think it is and resistance will rise, sellers are more motivated.    As we go lower it will hit some bedrock, speculators give up guessing.   Markets are always ironic, its like herding sheep or cats or something they never do what you want or expect.

There never needs to be a reason other than excess supply, weak demand, and thin liquidity.

Also, the market crashed 83% in April 2013 before making a new all-time high 6 months later. So obviously the April-July 2013 dip was just a pullback in a larger bull market. So a crash can be a correction.

you don't understand it because you are calling it a "correction" and your percentages are way off the mark.
a drop down to $4k is not only not a correction but also it is a gigantic crash. the size of it is going to be a little less than 70%. so in other words if you even consider $4k you are considering the market to crash (for no reason i should add) hard!

I have hardly witnessed a drop of price during the December holidays. First, in 2017 December was the era the bitcoin flew most with very high volatile. In 2018 (December) there was no drop but market was already down till the increase we are currently seeing now. Therefore, the drop in price is not just for holidays, fund is what I think is responsible for drop and at the moment I'm not reading any fud that is likely going to drop price back to 5k area.

Personally I don't understand the thesis of acknowledging the price can drop 25%+ to $6k area but not 50%+ to $4k level if there is natural bearish correction. I'm starting to consider it a less than 50% chance $6k is broken, due to multi-year support at this level from 2017 & 2018, which is incredibly rare in Bitcoin price history. We haven't had multi-year support since the $380 "dip buying" level back in 2014 and 2015 which held in 2016. But also surely if $7k and $8k can be broken then why not $6k and even (dare I say it) $5k? It reminds me of when people thought $5k and $4k wouldn't be broken either, whereas anything can happen despite the overall bullish sentiment.

If you think investors are smart enough to know when to stop selling then this example disproves this myth:


Notice how the target for the breakdown was around $2K but people panic sold it down to $1.8K. Also bare in mind how this was at the beginning a full-blown bull market as well as new ATHs, more of less one of most reliable prices to buy Bitcoin in the context of being only 2x from it's previous ATH and looking bullish af. Why wouldn't the same thing occur?

Also note how this scenario of breaking $6k doesn't exclude the idea of being above $10k and even $12k by the end of the year 
Hence I consider it the "best case scenario", even if it's far from the most likely in my opinion (it's what too many people want to see!)

Maybe about support, i think for now we must think about it too. By the way, christmast and holiday almost come and usually it can cause price dumped. Maybe for people if already know this, don't need to panic because it is only temporary and will up again after that. Because if people make it worse, price of bitcoin can really dumped and no buy order can block it anymore.

5000 wont happen easily now we're printed some much volume about 6000.    Maybe Mt. gox liquidated coins are being sold off or some other reason that leads to weakness, we'd find that out afterwards I guess but right now its not especially apparent.


There is no 50% Fibonacci level if we were being strict about it and of course we arent, all we are trying to do is guess where others place significance in any move forward and sort the amount of momentum and true direction from speculative activity.
  50% is just invented by people as a place to take some profits, in a natural order its not got any greater power to it presuming Fibonacci itself does.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/fibonacciretracement.asp

I'd normally take the 38 and 61% levels are good confidence levels that the move will complete, if we cant even stay above 38% then its quite weak.

I am not trolling.  Look for yourself, look at a chart with 1-week candles.  The $5,000 range is not an unrealistic resistance over the next several months, it is more than possible.  $5,000 is the lowest I think it will reach.  This is not trolling it probably just goes against what you personally want the price to do.

There will always be people who think they are edgy and smart to tell something nobody really believes.
It is literally just so simple to see behind their guise that bitcoin can't be $5k forever, it is literally impossible so they just make stuff up to get attention. Remember there are people in this world who get no attention from the real world because people could literally decline to talk to them, they can just remove themselves from these people and that is why people tend to get attention from online people.

You can't get away from them, you can't block them, they are just there and they are not just one, they are millions in every language in every website. Hence they troll and write stuff like "bitcoin will be $5k!!" so they could get some attention they otherwise couldn't.

Current situation on the market doesn't show us signs that that Bitcoin price might fall so deep. There is no need to spread the panic. Moreover many are expecting for price to rise as the year is going to an end although there isn't any rule that could confirm that.
Still having in mind previous experience I can say that nothing should surprise me and therfore I'm prepared on every scenario without drama.

The years of experience in price action here taught me that you should never discard certain price levels from being retested.... we have enough historical evidence that this market is irrational and full of surprises.

$7k isn't even that bad would we revisit that level. I would consider a $5k visit to be more worrying, but then again, when people start to get worried it usually is a great time to open some long positions. In my case it means buy more spot.

People are still fairly optimistic which makes me think that they haven't suffered enough yet. Maybe that another $1-$2k red candle will be that last shakeout of weak hands and profit takers.

Basicly, according to this chart, bitcoin will go down to $5K as the bottom? a very convincing chart based on MA, 19bars-133 days, 17bars-119 days, 19bars-133 days, and next will be another 17bars-for 119 days until March 2020? Well, I don't buy it.
Bitcoin seems persistent above $8K, probably can drop to $7K or the worst at $6K but not at $5K.
Furthermore, we approach the end of the year, entering the Q4 which the market sentiment seems positive even at this bear market, Bitcoin may recover back to $10K by the ensd of this year. But, who knows, we'll see when the time comes.

There's a lot of TA out there suggesting a drop to between $5-6.8K with the possibility of $7K holding, this is probably why. Most people don't expect it to drop below $4.5K it seems as the 200 Week MA is there which supported us back at $3120. It still hasn't been broken and is continuing to trend upwards. $5K is clearly a number to rally behind for ₿ bulls basically. See here for examples of how Bitcoin could drop to $6875, $6410, $5,350 and $5,050, by extrapolating past price history to the current price.


Here's an example of what $5K could look like for you. Give it a couple of months and the 200 Week MA will be there to support the price.

What's your reasoning behind this mate? There is little to no concrete proof or any other people who would ever imagine BTC dropping to the 5000 mark in this bear market.

I personally don't think BTC will even hit below 7,000 USD, we haven't seen any big price movements in the last couple of months and unless something drastic happens, I don't think we'll see any actual movement until then.

I highly doubt that bitcoin is going to dip down that much in the meantime. However, I do think that a short term period of suppressed activity is going to follow after this dip from the $14k range.

As a result, I've stopped all my longs long ago, but I've also cashed out my shorts recently because markets could reasonably go either way and it's extremely difficult to predict which way it'll be.

I don't think that a recovery to $10k+ is going to be likely in the short term, although possible, since there is now clear resistance at both $12k and $10k that would prevent prices from catching up any time soon. A likely scenario would be sideways movement at the $8k level before BTC tests support at $7k, although $5k seems a bit too low of a regression.

It is fine for me as long as it wouldn't stay too long in $5,000 and move up again after it hits it .
I really hope that we could see it around $15,000 again before the year ends and we still have some time for it to happens,
So if it would drop down to $5,000 again it is better to grab that chance to get some.
And I think it wouldn't really go down to that road again  (crossed fingers) .

haha, actually the real "number" is $10,000 and your sock poppets can't change that either. any price below that mark is a surprising discount that we are receiving as the bitcoin autumn sale promotion that is unpredictable and there is no resistances here, only weak hands that are giving up their coins at that discount in this promotional campaign

This is the same thing which echoes from the mind of every single crypto enthusiast but we need to accept the reality that $5000 could be the stable value for bitcoin by looking at the fluctuations which has happened in last 18 months or so, but if we check with early adopters of BTC they are so confident that there will be a massive pump which will happen within a span of next few years but for short term investors it might not yeild any result.

Im waiting Vegeta meme again, my floor is 6k-7.5k, i will long there