Topic: $5000 to $80000 in 12 months with 3% compounding strategy (Read 415 times)

Exactly. This is what bettingresource is doing. They just had a crazy good week with 92 unit profits. But if you look at their picks history in the log sheet of their spreadsheet , since July there have been 256 picks and of which 54% won, 44% lost and 3% voided. Yield is 16.16% for these results. If one bet these picks without compounding, the roi on starting bankroll is 191.67% but if compounded its 245.10%. Now if they continue to produce like they are producing the roi of compounding would get at much higher rate with each win and the distance between non compounding and compounding roi would get wider at an exponential rate.

Bookies already know this. Popular books like bet365 will limit you fast if you follow bettingresource's picks with their strategy. They banned me with in 3 months. You will be left with very few books to play. I would stick to their recommended boooks if you are going to use them long term.

This happens with trading as well, I have seen people in different markets earning great profits in the first months of their careers because they take huge risks, but the risk of ruing is incredibly high since they are taking huge risks like risking 25% of their account in each trade, which to me is completely crazy because they only need to lose four times in a row to lose all their capital, they do not seem to realize that once you have a way to beat the markets then the most important step is to have great money management skills.

I have always thought that in order to become successful as a trader even a winning system is not really that necessary, in average a person should win about half of his trades if he picked randomly the point of entry, so if that person has good money management skills it could still turn a profit.

The thing is most sports bettors don't use this kind of method, that is why they lose. I am trying to say that this method works. And like in stocks, in sports betting you have to run multiple portfolios for each tipster you follow and for your own picks. By running multiple portfolios with dedicated bankroll, if one sucks, it wont affect the other. So far the best tips i have seen are from bettingresource's and i use their picks for my biggest portfolio.

It is very interesting at least to me that the system that gamblers use to protect and manage their money is very similar to the systems that traders use in order to achieve the same results, for example when you are trading your stop loss, which is basically the amount of money that you can accept to lose in each trade, it cannot be bigger than 2% of your capital, you can choose a more conservative approach but 2% is the max that you can risk in each trade.

If you have a system that allows you to earn money out of your trades you can endure a lot of consecutive losses without losing too much of your capital and eventually when the good days come again your bankroll is going to recover very quickly.

Incredibly I don't think that way.I just thought how a day can get 2x Multiply from my bankroll sounds crazy indeed cause lust and not the patience that is in me makes me greedy,but after seeing your strategy method I might apply it cause there is an old saying of patience is the essence of luck.

It's only my first time properly recording performance, using a structured betting approach. In the past, I have made many more times bankroll on tournaments but with risky all in bets using enhanced odds, but probably breaking even when pitted against the losses on regular betting throughout football season.

In the thread I link above, I don't specify so i will edit OP but I only bet 1% of bankroll on every new wager, once a day on average, expressed in units. This 1% will only be adjusted once bankroll is at a certain profit level. Currently, after almost 40 consecutive days, the bankroll is over 10% in profit. Compounding at the same performance level should take me to doubling bankroll in under a year.

Conversely, if I don't do well, I would lose half that in the same time, if my performance deteriorates by about 40%. I didn't make the exact calculations but that wasn't the entire point of my tracking... The point was to illustrate long term gains from choosing a bookie with lower margins.

Compounding interest can be a beautiful thing. How often do you project interest to compound to hit $80k? Have you tried something like this, before? What were your results?

One point to consider is interest will never truly compound due to betting limits. At a certain point 3% of your bankroll will become greater than maximum bet limits offered by bookies. Offhand people will probably think that $5,000 to $80,000 on 3% compounding interest is unworkable under real world conditions and they would be correct to think so due to limitations inherent in bet limits, etc.


I would be curious to know your current ROI % (return on investment).

In the past, the highest I achieved gambling on sports was 16 times my initial bankroll. I got overconfident, lost discipline and went *all in* on what turned out to be a losing call. Earnings and profiteering potential are so great it can be intoxicating. There could be a correlation between big wins and big losses. lol

Perhaps the bad replies owe something to the thread title, might be clearer to just focus on the compounding strategy, which to be clear, has many similarities to career gambling with poker players.

I recently tried to structure my sports gambling as well, and agree that the most important is to be patient and disciplined. I'm perhaps even more conservative, waiting for bankroll to go 20% before increasing units value by 10%. So it will be a slower compounding, but since I'm learning and experimenting, as well as noting the limits, I can still bet for a long time before reaching those limits.

Note, bankroll was only $600 or so, I will consider the experiment a huge, huge success if I could double that in a year.

SyGambler has a valid point as well with Bitcoinrush. Lowest margins on pinnacle. My series of only 30 plus bets already show unit advantages over Nitro well over 100... Similarly, compounding fractions of margin amd, therefore, profit advantages add up!

I can't believe some of the replies here. Of course that strategy is not going to get anyone rich. You still need the main skill of sports handicapping just like you need poker skills. What i am saying is that if you have the skill to pick games, this strategy is one of the best to rapidly grow your bankroll, especially if you are starting with smaller bankroll. You will not become a billionaire from this strategy because you won't be able to keep compounding. Even to make million a year it would be hard or not possible dependign on where you are because you cannot keep compounding for ever since most books will start limiting you or the lines will start moving to get the value out of the line. But if you are good at picking games, this strategy can get your bankroll to 100k to 250k and around that point, depending on where you are from you won't be able to compound the winnings due to betting restrictions or limits by sportsbooks. So when you reach that 100k to 250k, and play with that bankroll without compounding, you can make withdraw the winnings and treat it as income. Sure there will be losses but thats part of all investing--ups and down. This strategy is conservative enough to navigate the downs and come up in top if you are decent handicapper--it has been working for me very well.

Bettingresource's picks and their strategy have been around for a while now and some books like bet365, bovada etc have already taken measure. IF you deposit a small bankroll (say $2500 to $5000) and strictly follow bettingresource's picks with their money management, these books will limit you fast. They will limit you so fast that they won't even let the bankroll grow to $15k. And if you start with a bigger bankroll, they would limit you even fast, before you double the bankroll. This happens only if you use the betting account to strictly bet bettingresource picks. If you bet their picks and bet your own picks, the limitation may not happen as fast or may not happen at all if your other bettings are causing you to lose more money than what you are winning with bettingresource picks.

great job mate , I really hope to see more threads like this in the gambling section since it's now full of people spamming and tipsters who just tip without even recording how much they are up or down
I'm running a similar thread where I only invest in value tipsters and play their plays , so hope we can together profit and prove that it's actually possible to win from sportsbetting

you mentioned that you use pinnacle for fiat and nitrogen for bitcoin , so why you don't use bitcoinrush for bitcoin where the odds are better than nitrogen and you get daily betbacks ?

Exactly what I was thinking and when I see things sound so cool and look good like this, most especially when it comes to betting, I really tend to question it a lot. The OP obviously did not factor in the possibility of picking correctly just as you have said, and in that case, where you are having a long streak of losses, it still would just be the norm where 99% of betters will still lose no matter how they compound and manage their funds, unless luck shines on you most of the time. Where is the possibility of even losing hugely before you even started ?

Well just leave him be, I have been in this forum for quite along time already and I have seen countless of similar thread. Alot people in the past claimed that they will be able to compound their winning and keep doing so until they are rich but guess where they are now? GONE

I really think one can get a profit regarding Sportsbet and poker because of this two you can certainly apply strategy and analysis in these certain platforms, I really think you can do a consecutive win if you had the pieces of information regarding in sports bets, And naturally your skills will work out in a poker match, But even if you already know what you are certainly doing in each game there are still risk involved so have cautious about still losing.

Well, reversed martingale or whatsoever kind of strategy would be I do get those points you have mentioned.If these being applied on Sports and poker games with proper risk management and discipline then this might work but to think that there would be no assurance just like on what you have exampled above on setting out a particular goal which is too high out of those small capital.It takes time for sure but one thing is important that we should never ever believe on unicorns. / guaranteed win,profits.

It really sounds like a very good strategy but you made it sound so simple. What happens when there is loss which is inevitable anyway and for sure, even though you really need strategy to always play and know how to analyze the sport of your choice, it is still centered on luck.

The money management thing though sounds reasonable with the whole compounding thing, but sometimes, when it comes to gambling and I see things like this, I feel we just make it sound so simple in the books and when you apply them basically in real life you tend to see something different. Well, if you said it has worked for you, then I would say you must really be good in analyzing sports then.

This is true, most people let emotion get in the way. They may hold it together for a week, month or year and the emotion can strike anytime and affect the discipline patiently betting only when you find value.

This is why I always run multiple portfolios with dedicated bankroll to each portfolio.

For example, I have portfolio/bankroll dedicated for my own picks. Another dedicated to following bettingresource picks. And another dedicated to following picks from internet (if i find someone posting it with good reasoning and if i like it too).  All portfolios have their dedicated bankroll. Its a good way to do it because I don't trust myself to pick without emotions all the time...i will slip here and there and chase. But i have been lot better ever since i started implementing this method to my picks.

You don't have to keep compounding for ever. If you start with 5k bankroll or 1 bitcoin you can be close to 100k after 1 year and after that you can stop compounding or change the max bet to 2% or 1%. Its a great method for people starting with bankroll of $10k and under. I know many guys who deposit $500 every two weeks into the bookie and lose it all with in 2 weeks to repeat the same process. If they do this method with the $500 would last months even if they are bad cappers and if they are half decent at picking games, they would never have to deposit again and the growth is exponential. Problem with small bankroll bettors is that they don't have patience to bet small amount but if they do it patiently the growth is exponential with each double up.

Again, this is a modified kelly criterion, not reverse martingale. Martingale is a dangers strategy that can bust your bankroll very fast. This is no where close to martingale.

And when you say casino games, if you mean all other games other than poker and sport betting then there is no way to beat those games with any strategy or skill long term because those games are -ev and works against the player. You cannot use those casino games as a method to make a living. If someone is claiming they are, then they are lying.

Sports betting  and poker are the the only games you can beat with skill. And if you are skilled enough the compounding strategy works very well. In order to be +ev you have to be skilled enough to win long term. If you dont have the skill then poker and sports betting are also -ev for you.

Even if you are half decent at picking games and have good discipline and self control, this method is golden.

Most people are going to lose sports bets because their interest goes alongside bias and personal interest where as a winning strategy would be to remain neutral to either possibility in a game and even more so recognise the occurrence of good odds vs the circumstances of the game.   I guess people dont judge all that while staying neutral.
There is a cost put into sports bets though, its not free or anything but I get some people will far prefer the open nature to the games rather then the set old style casino bets.   Theres going to be some who do better with a fixed game then sports bets which vary far more and I think are harder to judge

This is truly a reversed martingale yet this isn't adding up bet on lose but rather on win. Actually my first time to see a compounding based strategy which do adds up on win which is unusual and not being used by most gamblers either on casino based games or into sports betting. Targeting out $100k bankroll on just having $10k usd wont really be that easy and it do takes time.There would be still lots of factors that would affect you along the way while you play which means theres no assurance to really have that kind of discipline on maintaining bet size if you do see opportunity.

Martingale strategy is a chase strategy where the bettor increases the stake after each loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. That strategy will make you go broke faster than you can blink in any form of gambling.

This 3% compounding strategy is NOT modified martingale strategy. It is a modified Kelly Criterion strategy. The stake in this strategy increases only if you win because the winnings are re-invested. If you lose, the stake doesn't increase. This is the exact opposite of martingale strategy. However, if you read the full article, you would see that this strategy is recommended only for a temporary period for those who start with smaller bankroll and want to grow the bankroll to a desired bankroll. Once that desired bankroll is reached, the winnings are treated as earning and withdrawn instead of re-investing. If you want to bet with $100k bankroll and have $10,000 you would apply this strategy to start. After about 3 months your bankroll would reach 20k then in another 3 months 40k, then 80k and in about 11 months you would reach 100k. At that point you don't compound the winnings anymore. Once you reach the $100k bankroll, you would simply bet $300/unit or max bet of $3000 and this bet size would be fixed regardless of how much you gain after the 100k.