Topic: $5000 to $80000 in 12 months with 3% compounding strategy - page 2. (Read 470 times)

Strategies like this do not work in the long run, this is just a modified version of the martingale strategy, you will eventually lose when you have an unlucky streak and you no longer have the funds to cover the next betting round. Just because you got an extremely lucky streak and managed to survive this long, doesn't mean your strategy is viable for everybody, this is known as the confirmation bias, and you suffer from it.

Downswings are more as a result of human psychology...not being able to control emotions rather than being bad at picking games or playing poker. Bad sports bettors and poker players are going to lose regardless of how conservative they play with money management.

However, there are good players and bettors who fall victim to downswing. This is mainly because in both sports betting and poker, you have to maintain your emotions the entire time--doesn't matter if you are winning or losing. But most are human and they will fall victim to the emotion--when they win, sometimes they would get greedy cocking and over bet--when they lose sometimes they would try to win back what they lost the same day or with in the next few days by pushing bets that they normall wouldn't do. Even to an experienced bettor who is good with discipline it can happen at any moment--all it takes is a small pitfall and things can go out of hand. You will have to be like a robot through out and you have to stick to the working principles.

This is the reason why i am running seperate portfolios. The portfolio where i follow my own picks, i started with smaller bankroll. The portfolios where i am following bettingresource picks are much bigger. For the bettingresource picks, my emotions won't play a part because I am blindly following their picks like a robot using the model.
The portfolio that i follow with my own picks, i am trying my best to stick to the plan but i know at one point the winnings/or losing can affect my decisions on how many games i bet. I have seen my self in positions where i would bet games that i wouldn't normally bet after losing a bet....i.e. chasing. But i have been better since i started implementing this model.

Yes, downswings happen but this model addresses that. Usually many fall to big downswing because they do not have the patience or discipline to go navigate losing bets. The same thing also goes when they win--they get greedy and they want more of it and instead of waiting for the right bets, they will push bets to win more. Both winning and losing can accelerate someones downswings because of human psychology.

This model addresses downswings. This model sets the max bet on any given wager at 3%, which would be a 10 unit bet. So if you have a $100 bankroll, the max bet you would make is is $3 (this is a 10 unti bet). And a 1 unit bet would be $0.30.   In order for you to go bankrupt, you will need to go on a 333.33 unit downswing. If you are doing only max bets, that translates to losing more than 33 bets in a row. Yes, its possible to have such big downswing if you are terrible at picking games but if one is that terrible, they shouldn't venture into sports betting.

3% compounding is what they use with their picks because they tested it for over 10 years and it worked.  But if you are really good capper you can increase that up to 5% but in those cases you have to be supercareful with the picks because 5% max bet means, 200 unit downswing instead of 333.33 unit downswing to bankrupt.  And if you want to be extra conservative, you can set the max bet to 2% and in this case you would need a 500 unit downswing to go bankrcupt.

Bettingresouce, recommends 3% for those who follow their picks because they tested their model and their picks for over 10 years. But my advise is that higher you bankroll, the more conservative you should be. For example, if you are bankroll is very small, like $1000 or less, its probably good to start with 5% max bet. Then drop to 4% once you double your bankroll to $2000, then to 3% once you grow to $4k. Then stick at 3% until your bankroll reaches $25k or so then drop it to 2.5% or 2% if you want to play it safe with the big bank.

Since I started following this model, i have seen a big difference in my betting results. I didn't realize how much i was losing with my picks before because of not following a steady money management strategy. Right now I am running multiple portfolios with this model. 1 bankroll to follow my own picks and finally i am not losing--i am not winning big either because I am not that great at picks, however, small gain is better than having to deposit to the book every 2 weeks like i did in the past. My picking knowledge is limited to tennis and american football.

I am also running a another porfolio with dedicated bankroll to bettingresource picks, and that one is going great as you can see from the spreadsheets. I like them because they have bets almost every day since they do all sports and this helps grow the bankroll fast. I am actually running two bankroll to follow their picks with that strategy. One with actual fiat currency and the other with bitcoin bankroll in a bitcoin sportsbook. IN my experience this is one of the best method to increase your bitcoin volume. What sucks is that since i started the bitcoin bankroll with the picks, that portfolio almost doubled since i started this summer, but the value of bitcoin has gone down a bit. But i am sure bitcoin will climb back up and I can reap the profits. The great thing about this model is that the growth is exponential as time goes on, especially when you start with a small bankroll. For example, when you start with $2500, you spend about 3 months to double the bankroll to $5k and its just $5k. But in the next 3 months its up to $10k which is a much bigger growth than your original growth in the 1st 3 months. By the time 12 months finishes, its $40k and so on.

But yea, i wouldn't try this system if you are really bad at picking games or following a capper that is clueless. Even though 3% is somewhat conservative and can accomodate a 333.33 unti downswing, you still need to be decent handicapping games and playing value bets.

I agree that It would only work like that. Beating the odds is not easy,  but it is doable.i haven't thought of that part, but at least there is something. Proper management would be the best thing and not getting bankrupt. I haven't thought of it when you are playing poker, but I guess it's also applicable. Hopefully, the OP would address that because of the possibility of having a losing streak.

It will only work if you are able to pick correctly to beat the odds and the rake, and you will inevitable have downswings, which is something OP hasn’t addressed. In poker, downswings make you go down the stakes, and those who don’t do so end up bankrupt.

It's like taking advantage of the compounding strategy in investing. Taking the accumulation of the invested amount then just taking it in periods in years or decades. It takes longer, but I think it is useful. It's like your savings that are on steroids. Only this time, it's just the principal balance and taking control of your money with management strategies that wouldn't allow you to bet more than 3% which is considerable. I haven't tried this strategy but I think it could work, and probably I would apply it soon in my betting.

The strategy has some sense and it’s similar to what good poker players do: to move up the stakes when they win. But you are painting it too nice: what about downswings?


And what about ending some consecutive days with a loss? Don’t you need to adjust the size downwards? In a game where 99% of people lose you say that you only need half decent picking skills to have impressive gains.

Sorry, too good to be true.

Its amazing how many people think that its impossible to win in sports betting. Its true you cannot win in any casino games because they are all -ev games but sports betting is the only thing that you can use skill to turn it into +ev and in turn win. However, 99% of the bettors lose in sports betting. Some lose because they are horrible in picking games. But most lose even if they are good in picking games because they lack the discipline to manager the money and bankroll. If you can show little patience and composure, you can turn a small bankroll into a bankroll into a fortune.

The money management to use is the 3% max bet compounding strategy. You can read that money management in depth there but in short it is a 1 to 10 unit scale where the max bet (10 unit bet) is 3%. This means each unit is 0.3% of the bankroll. You will never bet more than 3% on any games (10 units). Basically after 1 betting day, you compound the winnings into the bankroll and adjust the unit size accordingly. If the day ends in loss, you maintain the same unit size until a new high in bankroll is reached, and then adjust the unit accordingly.  With this method you can double your bankroll pretty fast as long as your picking skills are half decent. Those guys double the bankroll on average about every 3 months. This means after 12 months you would have doubled the bankroll 4 times. So if you start with a 5k bankroll and use the compounding method, your bankroll would be 10k after 3 months, 20k after 6 months....80k after 12 months. You can check the picks in thisspreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CSvrT3osJos4P-Fni102v5fvZqaqm8Q/edit#gid=644533306  The log section has all the picks, the dashboard shows the growth summary and the daily shows the daily ups and downs.

I am running two portfolios with those picks....one with $10k bankroll in pinnacle and the other with 2bitcoin bankroll in nitrogen. I am loving the bitcoin portfolio because its one of the best way to increase your bitcoin volume.