Topic: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. (Read 23668 times)

Well, isn't it the same thing if we call something a "theoretical limit" or if we say that we "cannot imagine any scenario in which"?  there is no need to get caught upon semantics, and if you cannot envision such scenarios, then so be it.

No matter what $500k per bitcoin does seem to be quite a way into the future, even if it were to occur.  $500k per BTC would have to go through considerably more levels of adoption and even to sustain decent periods of price support at lower levels...  From here, I can imagine such 10x and then another 10x.. and then another 10x taking place in a matter of less than 3 years in a kind of best case scenario, but yeah, I certainly am not relying on any kind of $500k scenario in order to be happy because I have already done quite well for myself with BTC prices approaching $5k, and even with BTC prices at $1k, I would be in a decent position and beyond the price performance of any traditional investment that I have gotten into (such as various index funds - that seem to perform at about an average of 6% annually in the best of longer term scenarios)...

So currently, there seems to be a lot of cushion in BTC prices for those of us who have been into BTC for a while - but still it seems that we could even experience more wealth appreciation, and we are going to have to consider various means in order to secure our holdings for these possible very bullish scenarios that seem a hell-of-a-lot more likely now, as compared to a couple of years ago when we were stuck in the $200s for nearly a year.

Whether $500k btc happens or not, it sure is nice to already be decently into this baby and decently into profits, no? 

For people newly coming into bitcoin, I have been recommending similar strategies of some variation of dollar cost averaging - however, the more probable that one believes $500k, the more willing that the person might invest a bit more aggressively now or upon any price dips.

Maybe I don't understand your manner of speech. I don't want to limit it. I just don't see what would drive the total value of Bitcoin -- as seen by the world at large -- past that of gold. Maybe. I've just not envisioned how that might occur.

Bitcoin is still in early stage, but considering the saturation of market and the possible areas Bitcon can cover, OP had stated it perfectly, so going on that trend, I can see Bitcoin reaching more than $500,000 because I believe Bitcoin will cover way lot more than what OP stated.  We are living in early age of cryptocurrency so there is really a lot of room to grow for it especially the market being covered.

It seems strange that you want to intellectually (and theoretically) limit the growth potential of bitcoin based on another artificial value construct.

They are both artificial; however, yeah, if we were to go back to the days of the caveman, then gold would become more valuable  - but what are the likely Armageddon scenarios of that?  So, yeah, armageddon ideas may be in the consciousness of people, but if we think in terms of practicality, bitcoin has a lot of features that gold just does not have.. including ease of divisibility, transparency, portability, so even if true, it will likely take a while for bitcoin to catch up to gold's market cap (if it does), but I really think that you are being too pie in the sky artificial, random and arbitrary, if you really truly believe that the theoretical limit of bitcoin is your seemingly arbitrarily selected ceiling of gold's market cap. 

$500,000/BTC is very close to the point where the market cap would equal the market cap of gold. At least in today's dollars. I really don't see any scenario where we could go higher in real terms. Of course, we could (probably will) have runaway inflation of the USD. Such could result in a dollar price above this, But I personally don't see a scenario where the totality of bitcoin becomes valued as higher than the totality of gold.

I'd be happy to be surprised in this manner, however.

Why do you think that the bubble can not be so quick to inflate? Scares me such a sharp rise. Based on what your blind faith in bitcoin? Most users do not understand the cause of rising and falling prices. You just go with the flow and don't know where you stand.

Yes, I am surprised by the crypto currency, so if this growth, which began a few days ago, will continue to $ 10,000 without stops, I will not be very surprised already.
But I'm already used to the fact that everyone is talking about a bubble.
Let them say, I am unshakable in my belief in bitcoin

Everything is possible happening, we only need have a reason make that future become true, and the whales will help us solve this issue, we do not need worry about it.

So how many people are now using Bitcoin?  In your OP you said it was .01% of the population, we are pretty much at the 5k mark now so is it save to say its .1%?  Things are going to get crazy!

Everybody expects the price rise to the best possible high. But will this happen is the question. Currently its approx 4700$ and to reach 500k mark means more than 100 times from now it needs to be raised. Well in the mean time there would be some thing new which will come up and may be better than btc. Altcoins have started gaining significant investors considering btc to be expensive so people will shift to other altcoins. Al factors considering may be difficult for such a price.

The post is dated 2014. The 12M coins was the number of coins circulating in 2014.
The numerator should also be adjusted for 2017. There is a lot more money circulating these days. So the math is not way off.

I totally agree. The moon is possible and the math is so simple


Where did you get 12M coins from? We're at about 16.55M coins in existence today (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins).

The math for my numbers still hits your mark at $513,595.

This will continue, don't worry about that. After bitcoin price rise, and I mean this year rise from 500 to 4700 dollars many people saw how much bitcoin can cost in the future. Before there was talking about how bitcoin price is suppressed and that someone is holding price to not go up to early, it was question can bitcoin hold high price at all. For years bitcoin is growing, gathering power and now we saw a demonstration of it, and its not over, that's why we believe that bitcoin can cost a lot one day. We are just little part of world population and yet bitcoin is already so strong, what will happen when half of the world enter in crypto? We can just imagine.

This post is entirely great especially the one I quoted. Considering that it is written in 2014 it is awesome and thanks to the original poster.

I agree that bitcoin is a revolution after computers and internet, maybe be the biggest innovation that internet opened to us. Being a part of such a revolution is awesome. I am true supporter of bitcoin

Looking at the current events I am beginning to believe in your prediction, hope this continues

Yep... lots of scaredy cats out there, and frequently, I recommend a form of dollar cost averaging that is within budget - however, peeps are even afraid of that.

So, yeah, there have been people proclaiming bitcoin to be overpriced since $250 -- and so as the BTC price goes up, they get more and more nervous to buy in, and I think that has to do with a gambling mentality.  Instead of being prudent and buying slowly, frequently these folks want to put money in and then to see prices go up right away, and when the prices go up, lets say 50% or 100%, they get nervous again and cash out everything.. seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation -- though I can partly understand because I feel the same way about Ethereum... I could never realize a 5x, 10x or 20x profit of ethereum, because I would be nervous and cash out after a 50% price appreciation.

Why not?

So far bitcoin has overcome all the pessimistic forecasts that have again and again condemned it to imminent failure over the years, and that is why many of the early adopters are not millionaires, given the catastrophic scenarios that regularly arise, many of them decided to sell at the first major pump, either at $ 1, at $ 100 or at $ 1,000.

Some years ago the Bank of America forecast that $ 1,300 was a natural limit that could not be broken, but today we see the price of bitcoin making fun of those forecasts. Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible.

Wow this is really amazing to use we are now in near future where people will celebrate because of the price of bitcoin since we seeing the potential of growing bitcoin hoping that those local store and online store see's the worth of using bitcoin to be implemented into there payment option. But im not expecting this to happens because i don't want to disappoint my self.

This is all assuming there will be nothing new,  which very well might be so... but maybe someday btc will hand over the crown.

This assumes that the nature of bitcoin use doesn't change.  What I said is that IF it does then it will have to process 25,000/sec or it will run into problems.  If it doesn't grow at all, then it will also never need to scale again.