Topic: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. - page 6. (Read 23674 times)
There's no way it would ever go to half a mill without pretty much worldwide adoption. Personally I'd be very happy with a few thousand but I think we will have to wait quite some time for even that.
If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.
when it will happen, if ever, everyone will hold onyl a tiny fraction of bitcoin, so at best you will have the same money as now, because everyone will sold long before that, this is the beauty fo bitcoin
it's not like something like that can happen overnight, and every holder will have 500M in bitcoin or soemthing stupid, it does not work like that
Thanks for enlightening me bro.
If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.
when it will happen, if ever, everyone will hold onyl a tiny fraction of bitcoin, so at best you will have the same money as now, because everyone will sold long before that, this is the beauty fo bitcoin
it's not like something like that can happen overnight, and every holder will have 500M in bitcoin or soemthing stupid, it does not work like that
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.
10 years means 3 more halvings, which means the 30% of global electricity estimated to be necessary for 500K today would be down to <4%.
Plausible.
Could you elaborate more on this please.
Thank you.
If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.
Island on Greece? I think as the price of Bitcoin increases the price of an island on Greece will increase exponentially. 
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.
usually reasonable predictions have a 50% chance of getting right. but the price you are waiting for within 10 years is beyond reasonable and will never happen.
If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.
10 years means 3 more halvings, which means the 30% of global electricity estimated to be necessary for 500K today would be down to <4%.
Plausible.
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.
So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.
$500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. 
LOL me too
The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency.
it looks dreamy but i can't wait for the price to go that high!
for sure i will send all when we touch 100.000$ per coin, i will be able to retire whit a good amount of money
So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.
$500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. LOL me too
The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency.
it looks dreamy but i can't wait for the price to go that high!
So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.
$500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. LOL me too
The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency.
Well, you don't see why. And grandma keeps asking me about cold storage for her savings... Costliest here we come!
So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.
$500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. LOL me too
The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency.
So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it.
I guess you have a magical system to increase worldwide energy production overnight ?
And what does "worth it" mean? If a coin is worth 500K people will spend maybe 450K worth of energy to mine it.
Is it "worth it"?
So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it.
I guess you have a magical system to increase worldwide energy production overnight ?
And what does "worth it" mean? If a coin is worth 500K people will spend maybe 450K worth of energy to mine it.
Is it "worth it"?
If Bitcoin is the tool that will liberate humanity from dependence on centralized authorities then it most certainly is worth it.
So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it.
I guess you have a magical system to increase worldwide energy production overnight ?
And what does "worth it" mean? If a coin is worth 500K people will spend maybe 450K worth of energy to mine it.
Is it "worth it"?
So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it.
3% of power production ($50,000 per BTC) is within the real of possibility but I do not think $500,000 per BTC (30%) is.
I happen to believe that Bitcoin mining is going to push hardware & energy efficiency technologies to the edges unlike anything out there. For that reason I see 500,000$ coming sooner than 2033 if it does come.
Why not aim for 51% of energy consumption
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8141569
There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight....
Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters?
Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters?
You seem to think that technology and/or efficiency figure in to the system power consumption formula. They do not. It does not matter how efficient the miners become, it does not matter if the ASICs get smaller/better/faster/cheaper. Most importantly it does not matter where you get the power from, assuming the same cost.
If you are assuming that printable solar cells are going to bring the average cost of power down under my $0.10 per KWh estimate then that would allow the Bitcoin network to use even more power than the estimate given.
If you think that miners can find a profitable use for the waste heat from the mining process then that would allow them to use even more power than the estimates given.
By design the amount of power consumed is directly propotional to the average amount of USD available per block (subsidy + fees) as show in the formula given above.
Within an era the power consumed is proportional to the price. If the price goes from $500/BTC to a sustained $5,000 per BTC the amount of power consumed by the network will rise to about 10x the former amount independent of efficiency and technology used.
3% of power production ($50,000 per BTC) is within the real of possibility but I do not think $500,000 per BTC (30%) is.
I happen to believe that Bitcoin mining is going to push hardware & energy efficiency technologies to the edges unlike anything out there. For that reason I see 500,000$ coming sooner than 2033 if it does come.
Why not aim for 51% of energy consumption
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