$500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. - page 15.

BurtW

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Quote from: inBitweTrust on August 01, 2014, 08:21:08 AM

There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight....
Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters?

You seem to think that technology and/or efficiency figure in to the system power consumption formula. They do not. It does not matter how efficient the miners become, it does not matter if the ASICs get smaller/better/faster/cheaper. Most importantly it does not matter where you get the power from, assuming the same cost.

If you are assuming that printable solar cells are going to bring the average cost of power down under my $0.10 per KWh estimate then that would allow the Bitcoin network to use even more power than the estimate given.

If you think that miners can find a profitable use for the waste heat from the mining process then that would allow them to use even more power than the estimates given.

By design the amount of power consumed is directly propotional to the average amount of USD available per block (subsidy + fees) as show in the formula given above.

Within an era the power consumed is proportional to the price. If the price goes from $500/BTC to a sustained $5,000 per BTC the amount of power consumed by the network will rise to about 10x the former amount independent of efficiency and technology used.

slaveforanunnak1

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slaveforanunnak1

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Quote from: inBitweTrust on August 01, 2014, 08:21:08 AM

Quote from: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 08:12:42 AM

The power consumption over the next 50 years is harder to predict than the price. There are many factors simplified above that could change.

You are correct for acknowledging the many known unknowns and potential unknown unknowns, thus I reject this one comment:

Quote from: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 08:12:42 AM

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight....
Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters?

That's exactly what i was thinking! Let bitcoin be the engine behind solar cell technology! those Obama hand-outs didn't do shit! Thanks obama!

Yeezus

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Quote from: moriartybitcoin on August 01, 2014, 02:44:25 PM

I think $500k/coin would not happen because if the market grows that big, other altcoins will drain market share.

Why would people use other alts? People will only flock to alt coins if you can actually spend them anywhere which is what is currently holding back most alts at the moment. They're just gimmicks without merchants behind them.

moriartybitcoin

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I think $500k/coin would not happen because if the market grows that big, other altcoins will drain market share.

haploid23

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Quote from: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 06:36:39 AM

Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population?

Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world.

Bitcoin rejects no one.

So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go.

Yes but however, bitcoin is still for the privileged. A large chunk of the world population is in poverty, barely enough food to survive. They don't even have computers/internet. Technically speaking, bitcoin does not reject anyone, however not everyone will be able to access it. Cash is still king for these people.

Meuh6879

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Quote from: CoinDiver on August 01, 2014, 12:50:29 PM

Quote from: 2double0 on August 01, 2014, 12:37:05 PM

Why did you state there are only 12 million, there will be over 20 million in CIRCULATION by 2028.

FTFY

2032 for 99% of bitcoin emit (mined).

colinistheman

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Quote from: 2double0 on August 01, 2014, 12:37:05 PM

Why did you state there are only 12 million, there will be over 20 million in CIRCULATION by 2140.

12 million instead of 20 million due to number of lost coins at the end of 20 years is my guess. That, or it was a typo and he meant "21" but typed "12" instead.

Possum577

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Anders

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Quote from: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 12:13:47 PM

Quote from: Anders on August 01, 2014, 10:23:56 AM

My guess is that Bitcoin may reach $5,000 but not much more than that. And Bitcoin may go down to $500 but not much lower than that. <-- wild guesses Cheesy

I think that is considerably less than we will be seeing. If you believe Bitcoin is going to continue on, then it will have to get much higher to accomodate all the people that will be getting in. We have like 0.01% market adoption if that.

C'mon, think big and look at the big picture!

Ok, I'm going to be honest here and claim that Bitcoin is only a pilot project. A very impressive technology being tested as a proof of concept and as a means of gathering statistics. Previously I believed that the NSA may have been the inventor of Bitcoin. Now I have changed my mind. Bitcoin is probably an IBM project or something like that. Deep conspiracy stuff. Cheesy

And from that perspective Bitcoin was never meant to replace the ordinary fiat currencies. This means that "they" will only allow Bitcoin to go so far, say up to $5,000. I propose that it's a mistake to believe that Bitcoin just happened to be invented as some fluke inspiration of a real person named Satoshi Nakamoto. There are big deliberate powers behind Bitcoin. That's my guess at the moment.

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Quote from: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 06:36:39 AM

For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now.

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The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers". I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it.

Where's the math or logic that makes this statement true?

Price isn't purely based on supply, it has to also be based on demand. And if supply increases and demand doesn't increase with it prices are not going to grow as quickly as you suspect.

I love the sentiment but I don't see any math her to prove your assumptions...it's still just your hunch, guess, hope.

CoinDiver

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Quote from: 2double0 on August 01, 2014, 12:37:05 PM

Why did you state there are only 12 million, there will be over 20 million in CIRCULATION by 2028.

FTFY

2double0

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Why did you state there are only 12 million, there will be over 20 million in CIRCULATION by 2140.

CoinDiver

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More importantly, what kind of transaction volume can the protocol currently handle?

kingama

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A $500k bitcoin means being a billionaire takes only 2000 btc and a millionaire.?.. lol

Lauda

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Terminated.

Quote from: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 08:20:47 AM

Quote from: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 08:15:17 AM

Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years.

But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months.

A sustained $5000/BTC price would drive mining to attempt to consume about 0.3% of world wide power production. That is a lot, but at least is it possible.

It might not be $5000, $2500 is more than enough and that's like 0.15% is that an reasonable amount of power?

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Quote from: Puberty on August 01, 2014, 09:48:22 AM

Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today.

People smarter than you, mostly. Grin

The lottery is a tax for people who are bad at math and pattern recognition.

Bitcoin is a gift to people with exceptional pattern recognition skills. If only you had met me in 2011, I would've explained this reality to you.

colinistheman

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Quote from: Anders on August 01, 2014, 10:23:56 AM

My guess is that Bitcoin may reach $5,000 but not much more than that. And Bitcoin may go down to $500 but not much lower than that. <-- wild guesses Cheesy

I think that is considerably less than we will be seeing. If you believe Bitcoin is going to continue on, then it will have to get much higher to accomodate all the people that will be getting in. We have like 0.01% market adoption if that.

C'mon, think big and look at the big picture!

Anders

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My guess is that Bitcoin may reach $5,000 but not much more than that. And Bitcoin may go down to $500 but not much lower than that. <-- wild guesses Cheesy

hodap

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Quote from: Puberty on August 01, 2014, 09:48:22 AM

Quote from: Leina on August 01, 2014, 08:58:02 AM

A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream.

Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end.

If only I had spent the money that I used to buy lottery tickets back in 2011 on Bitcoin instead. Back then, Bitcoin was the real lottery ticket. You could hardly buy anything with it and the chances of it going mainstream were slim. Even though the odds were stacked against you, the potential rewards would have been enormous. Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today.

Yes. By the power of induction, 5-10M per coin is within reach in 2-5 years.

Don't forget the cost of mining will go up exponentially.

Topic: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. - page 15. (Read 23674 times)