$500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. - page 16.

Puberty

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Quote from: Leina on August 01, 2014, 08:58:02 AM

A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream.

Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end.

If only I had spent the money that I used to buy lottery tickets back in 2011 on Bitcoin instead. Back then, Bitcoin was the real lottery ticket. You could hardly buy anything with it and the chances of it going mainstream were slim. Even though the odds were stacked against you, the potential rewards would have been enormous. Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today.

Beliathon

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https://youtu.be/PZm8TTLR2NU

Visual Aid:

inBitweTrust

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Quote from: leex1528 on August 01, 2014, 09:24:25 AM

This is true...however we have no idea what could happen before then. I mean, Something amazing could come along and completely destroy bitcoin to be worth nothing.

More things could crash like gox and make it so unstable that it just plummets...

Unlikely, because of first movers advantage, the ability of Bitcoin to incorporate new features if needed, the network effect, and the reality that if Bitcoin fails it will question the credibility of any other decentralized crypto-currency. Bitcoin is too big to fail in the best possible way so we should jump in and make sure it stays pure and used as originally intended by Satoshi.

but.... they call it a "black swan event" for a reason.....

My philosophy is I don't care about the potential risks of a black swan event because my motivations are far beyond investment and mainly ethical and philosophical in nature. This may initially seem to be unwise and irrational when it comes to investing but is also precisely the reason bitcoin will succeed: Their are many of us that believe in it and will not allow it to fail.

leex1528

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Quote from: inBitweTrust on August 01, 2014, 09:18:11 AM

Outside of a black swan event we are fairly sure a bubble will occur in 2015 due to the block halving in 2016. Bubbles typically have been 7-10 times gains followed by a crash. So I predict at minimum 6k bubble that crashed to 3 k support by mid 2015 as the most conservative estimate.

No one should be taking profits before 2016 if they understand the principles of supply and demand.

This is true...however we have no idea what could happen before then. I mean, Something amazing could come along and completely destroy bitcoin to be worth nothing.

More things could crash like gox and make it so unstable that it just plummets...

inBitweTrust

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Quote from: leex1528 on August 01, 2014, 09:11:29 AM

You have no idea what will happen just as much as we have no idea:)

Outside of a black swan event we are fairly sure a bubble will occur in 2015 due to the block halving in 2016. The markets will anticipate the demand in advance and price accordingly. Bitcoin bubbles typically have been 7-10 times gains followed by a crash. So I predict at minimum 6k bubble that will crash to 3 k support by mid to late 2015 as the most conservative estimate.

If demand is strong there will should be another bubble after the block halving in 2016 sending bitcoin from an estimate of 3k to 20-30k followed by a crash to around 10-15k support.

No one should be taking profits before 2016 if they understand the principles of supply and demand. Anyone who believes in Bitcoin longterm should be investing 100% of their disposable income for the next year into bitcoin.

leex1528

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I mean you can "math" all you want.

But realistically

You have no idea what will happen just as much as we have no idea:)

Ron~Popeil

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It is fun to speculate on this stuff. I think the next meteoric rise is still a bit off in the future. The longer it takes the more we can all accumulate.

colinistheman

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Quote from: Leina on August 01, 2014, 08:58:02 AM

A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream.

Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end.

Good job. You won't regret it.

I got my own mother to buy 15 bitcoins over the past year. She is going to be sitting pretty in 5 years.

(and don't worry, I secured them for her)

Leina

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A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream.

Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end.

colinistheman

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Quote from: vpitcher07 on August 01, 2014, 08:24:21 AM

I certainly hope you're right! However I feel like the way you're jumping to this conclusion of 500,000 a btc is a bit too simplistic. There are many other factors involved in price besides worldwide adoption. Regulation, mining, human nature (which is unpredictable) and possible problems involved with bitcoin that have yet to be discovered. It's not totally unreasonable to see 500,000 a coin at some point but I don't see it anytime in the near future. Maybe 30 years from now but we also have to take into effect the rate of inflation. What will $1 buy us in 30 years? I love the bullish outlook on bitcoin but I think you're just a bit too bullish. Just my 2 bits though. I hope I'm very very wrong

Yes it will take some time. I don't think it will happen overnight. I think 20-30 years is about right to see something like half a million dollars per btc.

colinistheman

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Quote from: SpontaneousDream on August 01, 2014, 08:18:46 AM

Quote from: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 08:15:17 AM

Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years.

But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months.

$5,000 in the next 6 months!? LOL. What planet are you living on?

It will peak at that price and then correct itself. I'm living on Earth. What planet are you living on?

iluvpie60

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vpitcher07

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I certainly hope you're right! However I feel like the way you're jumping to this conclusion of 500,000 a btc is a bit too simplistic. There are many other factors involved in price besides worldwide adoption. Regulation, mining, human nature (which is unpredictable) and possible problems involved with bitcoin that have yet to be discovered. It's not totally unreasonable to see 500,000 a coin at some point but I don't see it anytime in the near future. Maybe 30 years from now but we also have to take into effect the rate of inflation. What will $1 buy us in 30 years? I love the bullish outlook on bitcoin but I think you're just a bit too bullish. Just my 2 bits though. I hope I'm very very wrong

inBitweTrust

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Quote from: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 08:12:42 AM

The power consumption over the next 50 years is harder to predict than the price. There are many factors simplified above that could change.

You are correct for acknowledging the many known unknowns and potential unknown unknowns, thus I reject this one comment:

Quote from: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 08:12:42 AM

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight....
Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters?

BurtW

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All paid signature campaigns should be banned.

Quote from: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 08:15:17 AM

Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years.

But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months.

A sustained $5000/BTC price would drive mining to attempt to consume about 0.3% of world wide power production. That is a lot, but at least is it possible.

SpontaneousDream

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Quote from: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 08:15:17 AM

Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years.

But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months.

$5,000 in the next 6 months!? LOL. What planet are you living on?

colinistheman

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Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years.

But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months.

BurtW

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All paid signature campaigns should be banned.

The power consumption over the next 50 years is harder to predict than the price. There are many factors simplified above that could change.

x = $500,000 per BTC

   Sure, but in 50 years $500,000 may only buy you a cup of coffee
   As the value of the USD falls, we use less power.

f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras

   This is very hard to predict and is only a total guess on my part.
   If the fees per hour are less, we use less power.

c = $0.10 per kWh

   This is bound to go up due to inflation and peak oil/coal/natural gas production over the next 50 years.
   As this goes up, we will use less power.

g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin

   I have no idea, in fact miners may average less than a 10% gross profit margin.
   If this is higher, say 20%, we use less power.

spazzdla

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I love your thinking we will be free from the grips of the Royal 13 in the future. Alas you underestimate what they will do to never lose their power... samson will be their final move.. :S.

Puberty

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But... Bitcoin only had three bubbles. First bubble was back in June 2011 when it reached $33. Next one was in April 2013 when it reached $265. Last one was in November 2013 when it reached $1,200.

Topic: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. - page 16. (Read 23669 times)