67 Weeks Until... | Bitcointalksearch.org

Amph

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Quote from: crazyivan on April 18, 2015, 02:26:56 PM

Quote from: Alley on April 17, 2015, 08:13:59 PM

The price will double at minimum and miners will remain profitable.

We are going to have LTC reward halving this year and this is going to be a nice test on what s going to happen to BTC.

they have both lost about 1/5 of their peak, so they price after or before the halving should end in the same rise in theory

Alley

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Interesting. Looks like its only 4 months away.

crazyivan

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Quote from: Alley on April 17, 2015, 08:13:59 PM

The price will double at minimum and miners will remain profitable.

We are going to have LTC reward halving this year and this is going to be a nice test on what s going to happen to BTC.

Stratobitz

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Quote from: Alley on April 17, 2015, 08:13:59 PM

The price will double at minimum and miners will remain profitable.

I'd wager the difficulty halving would be far more likely.

Perhaps they will meet in the middle.

Strato

Alley

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The price will double at minimum and miners will remain profitable.

srgkrgkj

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true true strato hopefully demand remains high or at least at this level then a rise in price is natural Cheesy

Stratobitz

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Not sure if many remember but there was in fact a BTC shortage sometime back, where Coinbase basically ran out of coins.

Likely why they are now auditing Bitmain, making sure the coins they buy from the Mega-Pools are newly mined coins actually from their farm.

The halving will create a smaller output of newly minted BTC.

Demand however, is another story.

Strato

srgkrgkj

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This Bitcoin halving can kill bitcoin or blow it up to the moon :O but as the weeks go by i think its going to slowly kill off home miners with unpredicatble results on the economy Sad

ezeminer

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Quote from: Biodom on April 15, 2015, 08:23:47 PM

Halving is not the most interesting problem in bitcoin world.
I would say that the biggest problem is that everyone seems to gang up on bitcoin.
Everybody wants to have the blockchain, but not bitcoin, whatever it is-most here know that it is sheer nonsense, but this ridiculous line of reasoning is making rounds.
Foundation is messed up, etc. etc.

Bitcoin has never been in bear market this long.
This is how Wall street treats the competitor-gold was in a bear market for 19 years (1980-1999).
On a linear scale chart, bitcoin price is moving toward zero in mid 2016. I am not suggesting that it will reach zero, but it might.
It is positively depressing. I stopped buying bitcoin because every buy bites me, so just mine a bit right now.
If it fails, then it fails, although it would be very unfortunate as I expected much more from it.

All the altcoins try to mimic Bitcoin in essence. It hurts to see exact copies of the code be released under a different name and people go for it.

But Bitcoin is either slowing down, or just warming up to bat.

Biodom

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Halving is not the most interesting problem in bitcoin world.
I would say that the biggest problem is that everyone seems to gang up on bitcoin.
Everybody wants to have the blockchain, but not bitcoin, whatever it is-most here know that it is sheer nonsense, but this ridiculous line of reasoning is making rounds.
Foundation is messed up, etc. etc.

Bitcoin has never been in bear market this long.
This is how Wall street treats the competitor-gold was in a bear market for 19 years (1980-1999).
On a linear scale chart, bitcoin price is moving toward zero in mid 2016. I am not suggesting that it will reach zero, but it might.
It is positively depressing. I stopped buying bitcoin because every buy bites me, so just mine a bit right now.
If it fails, then it fails, although it would be very unfortunate as I expected much more from it.

alh

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While this has happened before, many current miners (my self included) did not participate. I started in July of 2013, well after the last halving. I can't gage it's impact relative to the last halving, I think the effects will be more pronounced because the Bitcoin universe is more intense in terms of mining. I have no sense that there were multi-MW mining farms, and a Petahash was unthinkable back then. We now have an actual mining hardware industry, that is "big business".

Just my $.02 as a relative newbie.

Bitsaurus

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Quote from: ThomasCrowne on April 14, 2015, 11:52:45 PM

Quote from: Stratobitz on April 14, 2015, 12:32:00 AM

Quote from: crazyivan on April 14, 2015, 12:27:22 AM

So, all in all, without major technological breakthrough, mining s dead. Without major price increase, BTC economy s dead.
I really hope not.

It is unquestionable: The block halving event will cause major disruption and volatility within the bitcoin markets; and mining atmosphere. There is no question about it. Fear/Panic will likely take hold months before. After any sort of major price drop or difficulty drop - greed will then settle in - and then a tug of war between both.

This will not all happen in 67 weeks... it will begin long before. It's not a secret, so the effect the halving has will be factored into the event's repercussions long in advance.

Strato

I agree with Stratobitz on this point. I have a feeling the 'smart' players will likely begin dumping equipment (slowly at first and gradually picking up the pace) up to 3 months before the actual halving.

We've already gone through this before. Only things like Silk Road seizure, fork 4.0, and LTC on Gox create fear Wink

ThomasCrowne

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Quote from: Stratobitz on April 14, 2015, 12:32:00 AM

Quote from: crazyivan on April 14, 2015, 12:27:22 AM

So, all in all, without major technological breakthrough, mining s dead. Without major price increase, BTC economy s dead.
I really hope not.

It is unquestionable: The block halving event will cause major disruption and volatility within the bitcoin markets; and mining atmosphere. There is no question about it. Fear/Panic will likely take hold months before. After any sort of major price drop or difficulty drop - greed will then settle in - and then a tug of war between both.

This will not all happen in 67 weeks... it will begin long before. It's not a secret, so the effect the halving has will be factored into the event's repercussions long in advance.

Strato

I agree with Stratobitz on this point. I have a feeling the 'smart' players will likely begin dumping equipment (slowly at first and gradually picking up the pace) up to 3 months before the actual halving.

navigator

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A bfl 60gh used ~330 watts not 850.

I could see some big farms shutting down before some home miners. Large farms have a higher overhead cost and operate on smaller profit margins compared to some home miners. If a home miner has similar power cost to a large farm, a single miner at home will have a higher profit compared to that miner being part of many that must be cooled, wired up, shelved, and maintained by someone that is getting paid. Large farms are only profitable because of quantity and quantity discounts.

As for the halving, just look at the extremes and know that something in between will most likely happen. Either difficulty drops in half or price doubles. The only thing I'm concerned with in the mining ecosystem is if price drops far enough that difficulty also drops and someone buys up all the unused miners to 51% the network.

ezeminer

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Quote from: SaltySpitoon on April 14, 2015, 04:00:08 PM

We are talking about years from now, so I didn't mean to imply that it would have any effect on the price now if I did. Who would have thought there would be asics at all back in the CPU/GPU mining days. We could either get far more efficent/powerful Asics, or we could find a technology that surpasses Asics.

As far as mining for the individual goes, it has been "unwise" for idividuals to mine since 2012, but people still do it. There was a point in the summer of 2012 where I was GPU mining around 1 BTC per day with a AMD 6950 and I was losing money. As luck would have it, the 6950 was discontinued shortly after I purchased it, and it was found out that they were incredibly good for Scrypt mining, so I ended up selling the GPU used for more than I bought it for. Mining is always a bad idea in the present, but sometimes it pays off in the future.

Interesting history. I thought more short term... whoops Cheesy

In the future we might have sha-256 quantum processing. I believe it will be more power before more efficiency, until the time comes when it is worthwhile to actually produce such ASICs or whatever the next big thing will be.

It will always be cheap/free electricity that wins in the end for mining tho.

SaltySpitoon

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Welcome to the SaltySpitoon, how Tough are ya?

Quote from: ezeminer on April 14, 2015, 03:39:01 PM

Price hasn't increased much in the last couple months.

And as far as the public knows nobody has a 20nm or smaller chip. The KnC solar chip was supposed but the public hasn't heard anything yet on that topic.

Moores Law might not apply until these chips are released as Bitmain is trying to play with BM1384s to achieve maximum efficiency until such a time exists where they want to put out more hardware (maybe summer will have some new spondoolies/bitmain/KnC (non fire starting miners)/ or any other company that may come out. Hopefully companies that actually produce hardware will have some fun toys for the public by the end of summer so we have new heaters for winter.

We are talking about years from now, so I didn't mean to imply that it would have any effect on the price now if I did. Who would have thought there would be asics at all back in the CPU/GPU mining days. We could either get far more efficent/powerful Asics, or we could find a technology that surpasses Asics.

As far as mining for the individual goes, it has been "unwise" for idividuals to mine since 2012, but people still do it. There was a point in the summer of 2012 where I was GPU mining around 1 BTC per day with a AMD 6950 and I was losing money. As luck would have it, the 6950 was discontinued shortly after I purchased it, and it was found out that they were incredibly good for Scrypt mining, so I ended up selling the GPU used for more than I bought it for. Mining is always a bad idea in the present, but sometimes it pays off in the future.

ezeminer

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Quote from: SaltySpitoon on April 14, 2015, 03:21:13 PM

Based on what happened when the block halving from 50 to 25 happened, I'd say the price will increase months before the halving, so there wont be any jump in price when it happens. As far as mining is concerned, look at the last two years and the Asics that have been produced, I dont think moore's law is accurate in this case, as if you compare a BFL Single 60GHash that used 850ish watts to a 1 THash miner with the same energy draw, you will see that doubling is probably a gross underestimate of the progress that will be made in two years.

All of that said, my only point to be made, is based on history, I've noticed that no one has had any sort of success using standard models to predict the different aspects of Bitcoin. The best we can do is wait two years and see how it do.

Price hasn't increased much in the last couple months.

And as far as the public knows nobody has a 20nm or smaller chip. The KnC solar chip was supposed but the public hasn't heard anything yet on that topic.

Moores Law might not apply until these chips are released as Bitmain is trying to play with BM1384s to achieve maximum efficiency until such a time exists where they want to put out more hardware (maybe summer will have some new spondoolies/bitmain/KnC (non fire starting miners)/ or any other company that may come out. Hopefully companies that actually produce hardware will have some fun toys for the public by the end of summer so we have new heaters for winter.

PolarPoint

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Mining is going to be less profitable, less efficient miner farms will leave the market and difficult will start to come down. Bitcoin price is hard to predict, I am bullish in the long term.

SaltySpitoon

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Welcome to the SaltySpitoon, how Tough are ya?

Based on what happened when the block halving from 50 to 25 happened, I'd say the price will increase months before the halving, so there wont be any jump in price when it happens. As far as mining is concerned, look at the last two years and the Asics that have been produced, I dont think moore's law is accurate in this case, as if you compare a BFL Single 60GHash that used 850ish watts to a 1 THash miner with the same energy draw, you will see that doubling is probably a gross underestimate of the progress that will be made in two years.

All of that said, my only point to be made, is based on history, I've noticed that no one has had any sort of success using standard models to predict the different aspects of Bitcoin. The best we can do is wait two years and see how it do.

ezeminer

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I would assume everyone panics and either do large buying or selling.

Large buying could lead to large selling once the halving occurs, as it might be a peak for fiat to BTC.

Large selling could lead to a huge buyers market once the market is saturated with bitcoins for fiat.

As in security, I believe halving will be a zero day. We can prepare so much, but when it happens, it happens and all the fun will come out.

Quote from: Stratobitz on April 14, 2015, 12:18:30 AM

Block Halving = Price Jump in BTC:
This is a possibility. However; I would argue it with one simple question... Why? There are already more than enough BTC out there for the current user-base. There are hoards of BTC in cold storage - coins that haven't moved out of wallets in years. Not pocket change... 100,000s of BTC which has remained untouched for years.

Also with cold storage Bitcoins, some people have just lost their private keys.
I believe one man lost like 10,000 Bitcoins on a harddrive he threw away. He then went dumpster diving but had failed.
Many of the first coins may have ended up like this, but nobody knows for sure.

There are also the Bitcoin eater addresses, addresses that are meant to eat bitcoins, or destroy (maybe someone knows the private key and will grab those later on in life).

All we know is, we can theorize this as this is the mining speculation board Cheesy

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