Topic: 67 Weeks Until... - page 2. (Read 2036 times)

A lot can happen in 67 weeks. 

My first guess is diff never goes past 100b price floats around in the 150 usd to 300 usd range.

Blocks half to 12.5  price drops strong diff drops strong .  And by late 2016 we are at 100 usd and a diff of 25-30 b.

I am doing a thread water position for the next 5 months. I will decide what to do later this year when the cold weather returns.

Let also all not forget that the future of bitcoin; it's success; depends greatly on whether or not the Core/Client can be eventually produced into a distributable that will work for the poorest people of the world. Mining; Trading; Using it at overstock.com - sure; but it's designed to work not for those just mentioned; rather the poorest people in the most remote places. The bankless. Those that live off barter and trade - yet still have cel phones.

Bitcoin, has the unique possibility of being the first money system for 4 Billion People who do not use money at all.

Strato

what i think, if the efficiency will fall to a certain point in the future where small medium farm will be forced to close their work, this with the block halving will lead to only a few big farm still operational(probably china big farm only), and it can result in some 51%'ed, but unless they want to ruin their business, i presume they will stay under 51%

then you have the usually, bitcoin will drop, bitcoin will rise, the chances are aginst the drop of course, because of the halving, but many miner will drop anyway their equipment, because of the halving if the price remain the same or it does not get up to x2

Mining hardware and considerations will go into effect once we get closer.  People adding up ROI and not knowing what will happen will no doubt slow miner sales close to the halve.

We can hope a price jump will happen.  But we don't really know.  However I don't see it dropping in price.  I see staying the same or improving slowly.

It is unquestionable:  The block halving event will cause major disruption and volatility within the bitcoin markets; and mining atmosphere. There is no question about it.  Fear/Panic will likely take hold months before. After any sort of major price drop or difficulty drop - greed will then settle in - and then a tug of war between both.

This will not all happen in 67 weeks... it will begin long before. It's not a secret, so the effect the halving has will be factored into the event's repercussions long in advance.

Strato

I am not sure I agree it should. Supply is only one part of the equation of price points in economics. Demand being the other. So yes supply will be cut in half - but demand is not strong at this point in time... in fact; the trend is down.

Strato

So, all in all, without major technological breakthrough, mining s dead. Without major price increase, BTC economy s dead.
I really hope not.

Its hard to say.

By next year the price of BTC might be double or triple of what it is now and it will still be proifitable. Or the block halving will reduce the difficulty by half.

What it should do is make the price of BTC increase at least.

In 67 weeks - miners and pools will no longer receive 25 BTC per block; rather 12.5 bitcoins. Half the reward in the same adjustable time-frame of 10 minutes; and with 67 weeks of increased difficulty as well.

While no one knows for sure what exactly will happen when the next Block Halving will occur. But it no doubt will have a significant impact on the Bitcoin economy; particularly; mining.

Mining Hardware:

Moore's Law would argue that the computation speed of computer circuits on average have doubled; and will continue to double, roughly every 2 years. However; I think in the coming years we are going to see big challenges keeping up with such progress- as the speed will not be able to continue this growth exponentially.  That said - will ASIC, or whatever mining hardware there is; keep up with this upcoming halving; and then the next?

Power Considerations:

If the block halving were to happen tomorrow; mining bitcoins would become instantly unprofitable for everyone. Big Farms; Small Farms; 1 TH or 10 PH. Unless somehow you had access to free electricity, there would be no reason to mine as doing so under current price conditions you would be in the red for every share submitted.

Block Halving = Price Jump in BTC:

This is a possibility. However; I would argue it with one simple question...  Why?  There are already more than enough BTC out there for the current user-base. There are hoards of BTC in cold storage - coins that haven't moved out of wallets in years. Not pocket change... 100,000s of BTC which has remained untouched for years.

When the block halving occurs - which it will; regardless of what hardware is out there; how fast it is; efficient power wise; etc - on that day it will only be 1/2 as powerful as the day before. So I think it is unquestionable that there will be an exodus within the mining industry as small and large mining operators alike liquidate their current generation equipment and shut down.

This will immediately cause a difficulty decrease in no less than 1-2 weeks after halving. We've seen difficulty decreases already... multiple ones in fact. I would not be surprised if in fact upon halving we see, whether it be in one adjustment period or over a number of periods within a short time-frame; that the difficulty adjusts down 30, 40, perhaps even 50% - which would; if it did actually drop 50% (Lets say it goes down 17%; then another 14% then another 16%) - this would then put the mining equipment efficiency right back where it was.

Block Halving = Price Drop in BTC:

This is also a possibility. As miners exit the industry on halving... or leading up to it; a lot of those sales of equipment will be made in BTC; BTC which will be then converted to fiat to pay off loans (in the case of large miners).  It will be unquestionably shaky... and shaky usually means volatility. Volatility typically includes ups and downs; and ups and downs scare people out.

With half the coins being produced per 10 minutes; I am not sure that the demand at that the time of this event - will in fact have grown so much and so far to where it matters. Because as of right now; the miners of the world are producing far more BTC than what the world needs. If the case wasn't so - price would be rising.

That said:

I just wanted to throw some thoughts out there; and hear some thoughts from everyone as well. Play-ball!

Cheers!

Strato