Topic: A break-out? - page 2. (Read 4588 times)

It's gone. Taken down as was no doubt always the intention.
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Oh-HA! But what is this. It has returned!

Heads-up guys:

1394.4 BTC @ $615.00 on Bitstamp, possibly about to get filled.

Personally, I'm a big fan of Chaikin's banana flow index. If the banana curves upwards, we're going up, if the banana curves downwards, we're going down. Very simple, very reliable (5 sigma).

Here's the current view:

Wasn't the break out, when the 400$ wall fell?

I'm all ears.

Please post refined appraisal incorporating the "other indicators"  

If you're long term enough to not care about a 50% intermediate drop then you're long term enough to never want to trade in the first place anyway.

You're not getting around the fact that
a) 1w MACD is extremely lagging (example: During the 2013 correction it turned red around $100. You had precisely 4 weeks before the market turned around, and your best buying back point would have been ~62. If you would have trusted the weekly MACD to buy back, you would have paid a nice 25% premium for the privilege of sitting out the bear market
b) it's pure momentum. At any moment, it can fail you, whether it's on the 2 min chart or the monthly. From a frequentist point of view, sure, I agree: once the weekly MACD turns green, it is more likely we continue to go up than down in the long run, but it's far from some logical kind of certainty.

Which brings us back to the original point: you don't base your decisions on a single indicator. The end.

That doesn't matter because we're talking about long term trends.

If you're investing long term, you don't care if it goes down 50% as long as it comes back up again. That 1-Week MACD histogram doesn't guarantee that the price won't drop by 50%, but it does guarantee that such a move would be the equivalent of swimming against a very strong tide and is likely to be swept away by same tide in quite a short space of time.

I'm sure there will be $200 bitcoins waiting for you at the end of the rainbow.

You make lots of valid points, but.....


And in that time that it takes to turn and change course, Bitcoin could be down 50%.

It's not a lagging indicator.

Trading school books define it as such because the MACD algorithm uses historical data to calculate it's output, but the histogram in particular is not displaying a historical property of the market, it's displaying a current one, and the bigger the chart timescale the more current the indication. (i.e. the 5 minute MACD has a huge relative lag but the 1-week has almost none).

The indicator uses the fourth or fifth derivatives of the moving averages and the histogram shows the difference of these, so we are looking at semi-permanent, well established properties of the market (at least in the long range reports) that transcend particular positive or negative fundamentals. It most definitely is something that can be used to "pre-empt" trends.

I agree that waiting for confirmation is important, but even that is a hazy area. Classically it's where the lower and higher order derivitaves cross, but on such a long term chart that point becomes more of a formality. In that chart right there you've got ample confirmation of very fundamental slowing of selling momentum and increase in buying momentum over a sustained period and against a diversity of news both favourable and unfavourable. That kind of momentum isn't going to turn around anytime soon.

this is very true.

once you get good at it you can actually begin to read human emotion into the patterns.

yeah ,you are right with candlestick Patterns They are a very strong and reliable tool.
I am astonished you noticed this now and not earlier
Basic TA-knowledge

Hope everyone is enjoying the rise in BTC price index today.

Has anyone else noticed the buy orders on Bstamp?

If you check out Bitcoinwisdom and select 15min charts - The two successive buying amounts looks kind of suspicious?

(2175BTC then 1246BTC) X 2

Is that just a coincidence?

If the Chinese really wanted to scare us and milk as many coins as possible then why is it that they never went to the point of saying that exchanges would actually be shut down?

Doesn't china make (or can get - Taiwan or something) the same mining chips for much cheaper (making it possible) to mine any amount of penta hash they want?

Could hit $700 quickly imo.

One thing I'm learning with forex trading that I'm getting into now is that candlestick patterns and lines on simple plain price charts are much more effective tools than complex mathematical indicators, which are ultimately derived from the same data.

My gut feeling is that big guys in China are loaded with coins by now, after months of spreading bearish news/guidelines/rumours. They tested bottom multiple times and accepted that's it for them, no more dump trucks coming as the current state.

They stopped caring about market movement, as they are holding long term. These big guys are not average Joe, they are either senior officials and/or insider traders.

It's unlikely we are going to see any big influence from Chinese government any more, however, selling rumours are way cheaper than building mining farms.

yep.  i said one of the indications.

that was a false "throw under".

You don't need a MACD. The first indicator was when it finally broke the $380 support and then proceeded to fall only to $340 and then immediately bounce all the way back up, never establishing a new lower trading range.