Topic: A break-out? - page 3. (Read 4588 times)

OKcoin has actually higher BTC volume than Huobi these days, it's not just Huobi anymore. And we were getting goxxed all the way to $1200 in November, when so many people thought MtGox was insolvent and would die. It did eventually die but not until making a new ATH and a few months of correcting afterwards, so a crash isn't the only possible outcome when exchanges get into trouble. If Huobi and OKcoin are suddenly shutdown, yes the price will dive. But that seems unlikely though, there are just too many possible scenarios including the one where nothing happens at all until fully regulated professional exchanges start popping up. The coming months will be exciting for sure.

It's bad enough that it's such a lagging indicator - you should not pre-empt it on top of that. 'I believe the lagging indicator is going to do THIS in 2 candles from now so I should act immediately' - at least wait until it actually happens and is confirmed. Do not forget all the traps that occured previously involving the 1D MACD and even once or twice with the 3D MACD where it went up but wasn't confirmed or was up for 1 candle and went back down.

LoL. That's kind of like saying don't just rely on your ears to tell you a 150mph train is coming round the bend in 20 seconds.

That isn't just *any* MACD indicator. It's a 1-week one. What that means is that it isn't predicting what's happening, it's TELLING you. That kind of momentum doesn't turn around in a few days - or even a few weeks - unless Bitcoin blew up technically.

What's more, the selling that went on during the past few months was in spite of the fundamentals, not because of them. It happened against a background of all kinds of bullish news such as the overstock adoption, senate hearings, Winklevoss ETF progress through the regulatory framework.

ok, there's been some negative stuff as well, but it's all short term and largely inconsequential to Bitcoin's adoption - Gox going bankrupt, malleability histeria, China trying to put their finger in the dyke etc.

So you've had 4 months of downward pressure from 3 short term sources....

[1] - the correction from December's pump

[2] - China regulating their FIAT gateways

[3] - F*ck ups like Gox and the malleability scare

... against a background of growing favourable fundamentals, not least of which is the Winklevoss ETF which will open a massive Fiat gateway into the market (the biggest of which is currently BTC-e and Coinbase   )

All this has had the effect of compressing a coiled spring which is what you're seeing in the MACD histogram there. There isn't any better indicator to demonstrate the aggregate effect of these market influences because you're seeing higher level derivatives of the selling momentum over a long long period, so it runs deep.

It might change course, but only as fast as the world's biggest supertanker at full speed.

No! Go away with your "logic" and "common sense". This is all led by Chairman Mao's Market Manipulation Brigade (CM³B). You'll see in time!

(it's actually kind of funny, because Mat could make a valid point about how Chinese exchanges still do have the capacity to throw us back a long way, if and when their actual volume declines to a trickle of what it is now. there is after all a real contribution to current buying pressure by China, and if that were to stop, I'm sure price would be affected. But, no, that's way too complicated an explanation for old Mat of course: instead "China leads each and every move" it is.)

I expected 600 yesterday because thursdays usually are interesting (possible second market buying etc).

I I was a HODLER, I would be bagholding some 27BTC bought at $1100 as a worst case scenario, although I start 'day trading' Bitcoins from $700 in November. So best case scenario would be me being a bag holder from $700 range.


Never rely on one indicator alone. Especially not the MACD.

I think the 1-week MACD histogram from Bitcoinwisdom tells all anyone needs to know about whats happening with this breakout.

It's permanent, and has been building since early April when the rate of selling started to slow. The correction from December's all time high is now fully in and IMO this is going well northward over the summer.

We haven't had such a bullish set of circumstances since last October.

No.

Because the fact that China always leads the buying pressure on this run up is only the reality in MatTheCat land. All the wise users on Bitcointalk.org say so (despite the evidence being there for all to see each and every fucking time).

ching chung ku fung piff paff wing wang i suppose soon we will all be hitting ourselves after huobi shuts down for real and btc is back down, because we neglected these obvious signs including this pathetic rally volume on stamp which is 1/4 of the volume as the volume that the various crashes earlier in the year had. just another day getting goxxed by china and we fell for it yet again. ill order the general tzo's chicken with two spring rolls and a side of crispy duck.

Not to mention, MatTheCat never seems to ponder the obvious truth that a few whale traders have multiple accounts on different international exchanges (e.g., Whale #1 has a trading account on both Bitstamp and Huobi, thus being able to play sides of the rally on multiple exchanges simultaneously).  So saying that "China is leading this rally, not the other nations" is misleading and possibly just plan wrong.

Thanks for the illustration of what I wrote above.

No need to discuss this further. I'm not the one playing catch and run with a price that doesn't do what I expect it to do based on faulty premises.

And it just so happens that Huobi is always the leader whenever anything significant happens in Bitcoin these days. Yeah....the trading bots follow on all exchanges, cos they are all hooked up to each other, but Huobi leads. Always.

pretty sure all the market look to each other for confirmation of moves anyway

leader with 30sec head start will not keep going up if no one follows

so wtv.

I didn't. don't why that happened. Instead of debating me, just go check it out for yourself.

Edit: FIXED.

why did you place the stamps time marker after the first volume spike?

Hier ist Der wirkliche Anfang des Ausbruchs:

Huobi:




Bitstamp:





EDIT: For some fucking reason that screenshot makes it look as though the first big green bar was at 9:31, on Bitstamp, and I am trying to steal a minute from the action on Bitstamp. The first big green bar happened on Bitstamp at 9.32 am UTC. Go and check it out for yourself.

Damn, matt just got wrecked

Why in on an uptrend?

I mean if you think it's going to succeed long term

ah, the perils of sleep.

seriously, as a day trader, how do you effectively deal with trading a highly volatile market when a quarter to a third of your life involves you being unconscious and away from your screen unable to react?  sure, you could try to automate your trades if a sudden move happens but that is very dangerous to your account especially with whipsaws.  statistically, much of this volatility is going to originate from outside the US when you're asleep.

better to HODL.