You keep referring to something I didn't write. I hate that: you are really trying my patience.
Sorry, I'm not good with names. No offense intended.
What you're nitpicking really doesn't matter at all, this is not a discussion of whether or not we are lucky. I was just illustrating that people confuse "luck" with "it's broken." And I gave an example how over the course of one week we switched from "it's crap" to "it's the best pool in the history of the universe."
The mathematical fact still remains that a well tuned p2pool will out pay any other pool. In fact, it will approach solo mining. If not enough people are mining on it, it will have huge variance. You were unlucky, but someone else who mined p2pool probably had inverse luck. For example, over the past 7 days (March 22), p2pool paid you 185% of what you would have gotten from PPS (including fees). Last week (March 15th), people mining on p2pool were only paid 85% compared to PPS (including fees). Variance (luck) is a problem for all pools that are underpowered and doesn't mean that it "pays out crap."
I wouldn't call it nitpicking. The fact is under a week ago, 90+ day performance was < 90%. That is awful in my book. Is it really luck that suddenly changed this last week? While I find that hard to believe (and I'm not convinced), I'll defer to the mathematical experts who claim it's all variance and shut up.
M
Oh dear. I come to this thread to read about how to optimise p2Pool. I don't understand the optimisations very well - I just don't have sufficient geek, or a sufficiently stable / low latency network. But it is an interesting read none-the-less.
What aren't interesting reads are the continual claims that something is wrong with the pool, and causing it "bad luck". Here are a few things which anyone should consider when making a "luck" claim one way or the other:
1. Talking about average "luck" over a number of days leads to claims that bad luck periods go for a long time, and good luck for only short periods. This is because when fewer blocks are solved by the pool, the "bad luck" stretches in time. If you instead look at a graph of average luck per block, or better yet the boxplots I posted, you can see that the recent "bad luck" is a small deviation that has actually been shorter than some other deviations. I'll just bold that:
Average luck per time period is misleading.
2. This is something Meni Rosenfeld brought up when I was first analysing p2Pool's luck - how could a period of "bad luck" be a problem with the pool? I don't see anyone proposing any mechanisms.
3. The published stats are going to be a little inaccurate. If anonymised earnings per hashrate for a large number of miners could be posted somewhere I think the "luck" discussion would end for all time.