Bear time?
Beer time!
FTFY
Topic: A second bubble? (Read 5381 times)
Bear time?
Overdue. This thing needs to stop for a few weeks.
This will be in my next "proudhon being wrong" quote package
Overdue. This thing needs to stop for a few weeks.
External flows entering Bitcoin from other currencies have remained consistent. None of the moves since the USD$5.00 level have been excessive on a weekly basis, and each time so far there has been sufficient time to stabilize. Nothing is overtly suggestive of a major correction.
Interesting how trading suddenly becomes investing.
haha.
(Don't mind me just pulling your leg a little)
haha.
(Don't mind me just pulling your leg a little)
No problem.
I'm doing both - working a position from day to day and a longer-term basis at a substantially under-par price. I'm not 'investing' in the sense of a losing trade turning into a longer-term 'hold-it-until-its-profitable' kind of trade. Early in my non-bitcoin trading career I've made that mistake, believe me.
I recommend ditching losing positions as soon as possible. Live to trade another day...
In case you are not familiar with this abbreviation: "OP" refers to Original Post(er). My last comment was on the bubble mentioned in the OP. The OP asks, whether we are in a bubble right now. My answer to that is:
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
Everything in my post before that relates to the first bubble of July 2011.
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
Everything in my post before that relates to the first bubble of July 2011.
How tiresome.
Go ahead and keep looking for 'bubbles', I'll keep on investing for my financial freedom and the future of finance.
haha.
(Don't mind me just pulling your leg a little)
In case you are not familiar with this abbreviation: "OP" refers to Original Post(er). My last comment was on the bubble mentioned in the OP. The OP asks, whether we are in a bubble right now. My answer to that is:
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
Everything in my post before that relates to the first bubble of July 2011.
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
Everything in my post before that relates to the first bubble of July 2011.
How tiresome.
Go ahead and keep looking for 'bubbles', I'll keep on investing for my financial freedom and the future of finance.
Lol, you proved it was not a bubble? Interesting. I think you rather came to the conclusion that it was not (I think I read your thread the other month). IMHO it was a bubble indeed showing all typical signs of a bubble, then it burst, not as abruptly as a bubble would burst with no value in its underlying security but it still did. Have a read through something on the "Gartner hype cycle",
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
you will discover, that what we have seen last June was a typical hype resulting in a correction of exaggerated expectations. Because there is intrinsic value in bitcoin the bubble burst didnt end its live, like with any fad, but only expressed those expectations and the decrease to some more realistic levels, matching yield of the technology in its current state.
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
you will discover, that what we have seen last June was a typical hype resulting in a correction of exaggerated expectations. Because there is intrinsic value in bitcoin the bubble burst didnt end its live, like with any fad, but only expressed those expectations and the decrease to some more realistic levels, matching yield of the technology in its current state.
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
Signs of a bubble, but not a bubble? Okay, thanks for agreeing with me - in a rather roundabout way, lol.
Code:
while(BTC.price > 0 && NetworkHash > 0)
{
Bitcoin.Bubble.Status = false;
}
{
Bitcoin.Bubble.Status = false;
}
Hope that cleared some things up for you... (but probably not, lol) Like how you can contradict yourself and cover all the bases. Do you work for CNBC?
Look again at my post:
Quote
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
In case you are not familiar with this abbreviation: "OP" refers to Original Post(er). My last comment was on the bubble mentioned in the OP. The OP asks, whether we are in a bubble right now. My answer to that is: Quote
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
Everything in my post before that relates to the first bubble of July 2011.
Bear time?
Overdue. This thing needs to stop for a few weeks.
Bear time?
Just a temporary setback
The volume of the latest upspike was way too high for this to be it.
On the other hand bitcoin markets have behaved contrary to high volume moves in the past...
Bear time?
When reading those old posts I came to the conclusion that half the people were arguing whether bitcoin itself is a bubble, and the other half arguing about whether bitcoin was currently in a bubble. If you don't understand this distinction, a lot of smart people's posts end up sounding idiotic.
I think its pretty obvious now to all who lived through the last 15 years (tech, housing bubbles) that there WAS a bubble in bitcoin. But even if the price of a bitcoin eventually goes to zero its pretty clear at this point that you can't conclude that bitcoin-as-a-whole was a "bubble" -- it would merely be a failure. But perhaps this terminology distinction won't matter to all of us holding onto coins...
I think its pretty obvious now to all who lived through the last 15 years (tech, housing bubbles) that there WAS a bubble in bitcoin. But even if the price of a bitcoin eventually goes to zero its pretty clear at this point that you can't conclude that bitcoin-as-a-whole was a "bubble" -- it would merely be a failure. But perhaps this terminology distinction won't matter to all of us holding onto coins...
Code:
while(BTC.price > 0 && NetworkHash > 0)
{
Bitcoin.Bubble.Status = false;
}
{
Bitcoin.Bubble.Status = false;
}
Hopefully this is an infinite loop
Lol, you proved it was not a bubble? Interesting. I think you rather came to the conclusion that it was not (I think I read your thread the other month). IMHO it was a bubble indeed showing all typical signs of a bubble, then it burst, not as abruptly as a bubble would burst with no value in its underlying security but it still did. Have a read through something on the "Gartner hype cycle",
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
you will discover, that what we have seen last June was a typical hype resulting in a correction of exaggerated expectations. Because there is intrinsic value in bitcoin the bubble burst didnt end its live, like with any fad, but only expressed those expectations and the decrease to some more realistic levels, matching yield of the technology in its current state.
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
you will discover, that what we have seen last June was a typical hype resulting in a correction of exaggerated expectations. Because there is intrinsic value in bitcoin the bubble burst didnt end its live, like with any fad, but only expressed those expectations and the decrease to some more realistic levels, matching yield of the technology in its current state.
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
Signs of a bubble, but not a bubble? Okay, thanks for agreeing with me - in a rather roundabout way, lol.
Code:
while(BTC.price > 0 && NetworkHash > 0)
{
Bitcoin.Bubble.Status = false;
}
{
Bitcoin.Bubble.Status = false;
}
Hope that cleared some things up for you... (but probably not, lol) Like how you can contradict yourself and cover all the bases. Do you work for CNBC?
So far, these price rises have not entered danger zones on a weekly basis. This week's danger zone is above ~$8.50 with an immediate sell over $10.
It isn't a bubble. I proved that last year in my analysis. If it had been one, we wouldn't be trading at 7, it would be near zero with the overall hashing capacity declining rapidly.
Now, this doesn't mean we can't have large price swings - just don't mistake volatility for a 'bubble', because you'd be using the wrong term. Exponential blow-off tops occur in different markets, and I'm sure we haven't seen the last of those here.
Overall, I expect bitcoin to advance and persist.
Now, this doesn't mean we can't have large price swings - just don't mistake volatility for a 'bubble', because you'd be using the wrong term. Exponential blow-off tops occur in different markets, and I'm sure we haven't seen the last of those here.
Overall, I expect bitcoin to advance and persist.
Lol, you proved it was not a bubble? Interesting. I think you rather came to the conclusion that it was not (I think I read your thread the other month). IMHO it was a bubble indeed showing all typical signs of a bubble, then it burst, not as abruptly as a bubble would burst with no value in its underlying security but it still did. Have a read through something on the "Gartner hype cycle",
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
you will discover, that what we have seen last June was a typical hype resulting in a correction of exaggerated expectations. Because there is intrinsic value in bitcoin the bubble burst didnt end its live, like with any fad, but only expressed those expectations and the decrease to some more realistic levels, matching yield of the technology in its current state.
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
There's also the possibility that the rise is partially caused by the dollar inflating from the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet activities. M2 supply is up $43 billion from last week. Boggles my mind the numbers that get thrown around when dollar debt/expansion is concerned.
If you could graph BTC priced in dollars minus inflation - maybe its just a stable plateau after all. I leave that to the number crunchers here.
If you could graph BTC priced in dollars minus inflation - maybe its just a stable plateau after all. I leave that to the number crunchers here.
Except DXY has been on the rise, so while supply might be expanding purcashing power is going up. Nobody wants to take out debt and that's the only way to get access to that new money.
There's also the possibility that the rise is partially caused by the dollar inflating from the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet activities. M2 supply is up $43 billion from last week. Boggles my mind the numbers that get thrown around when dollar debt/expansion is concerned.
If you could graph BTC priced in dollars minus inflation - maybe its just a stable plateau after all. I leave that to the number crunchers here.
If you could graph BTC priced in dollars minus inflation - maybe its just a stable plateau after all. I leave that to the number crunchers here.
So far, no classical bubble indicators. The volume didn't rise all that much, there's little hype, and the fundamental reasons for a rise might just be there.
That last point is hard to judge. But there is currently a need for both international transactions and an inflation-free asset to store value. Given its potential and its currently low market cap, Bitcoin might provide both.
So while I'm not shouting "RALLY RALLY UP TO 8," I also don't see reason to call 7 a bubble. Who can estimate Bitcoin value to such precision anyway?
That last point is hard to judge. But there is currently a need for both international transactions and an inflation-free asset to store value. Given its potential and its currently low market cap, Bitcoin might provide both.
So while I'm not shouting "RALLY RALLY UP TO 8," I also don't see reason to call 7 a bubble. Who can estimate Bitcoin value to such precision anyway?
It isn't a bubble. I proved that last year in my analysis. If it had been one, we wouldn't be trading at 7, it would be near zero with the overall hashing capacity declining rapidly.
Now, this doesn't mean we can't have large price swings - just don't mistake volatility for a 'bubble', because you'd be using the wrong term. Exponential blow-off tops occur in different markets, and I'm sure we haven't seen the last of those here.
Overall, I expect bitcoin to advance and persist.
Now, this doesn't mean we can't have large price swings - just don't mistake volatility for a 'bubble', because you'd be using the wrong term. Exponential blow-off tops occur in different markets, and I'm sure we haven't seen the last of those here.
Overall, I expect bitcoin to advance and persist.
I have gotten most of my circle into bitcoins solely for gambling. Gambling needs another push, but I have not seen any slide backs in adopters.
The porn market is just in its infancy right now, way to many at home amateurs (sorry girls) but it is trending towards higher quality models as of late.
Drugs..... I think Silk Road has this in done and done, nothing to see here.
The porn market is just in its infancy right now, way to many at home amateurs (sorry girls) but it is trending towards higher quality models as of late.
Drugs..... I think Silk Road has this in done and done, nothing to see here.
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