A second bubble? - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: redbeans2012 on July 10, 2012, 11:01:00 PM

Quote from: smoothie on July 10, 2012, 09:49:55 PM

Quote from: redbeans2012 on July 10, 2012, 09:41:17 PM

Quote from: mem on July 10, 2012, 08:45:18 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:53:52 PM

Quote from: genuise on July 10, 2012, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:06:56 PM

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

You are right. I think either one of these three would suffice. It seems gambling is the main contender these days. I offer to sell bitcoins on craigslist and throw in the texas holdem aspect. Just started today we'll see what happens. I personally have gotten 3 people into playing texas holdem on seals with clubs who really weren't into bitcoin but are really into poker. Now they want to buy bitcoins.

Interesting. Real life poker games with bitcoins.

"World Series of Poker....with bitcoins!"

Thats actually a good idea. I might try to make it happen. My friend plays with a bunch of guys every week. (poker that is) She brought up bitcoin and they didn't have good things to say about it. (mostly the same ignorant stuff you hear from people who know nothing about it).
Working on it though

Awesome let me know so I can join he he he

redbeans2012

hero member

Activity: 887

Merit: 1000

Quote from: smoothie on July 10, 2012, 09:49:55 PM

Quote from: redbeans2012 on July 10, 2012, 09:41:17 PM

Quote from: mem on July 10, 2012, 08:45:18 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:53:52 PM

Quote from: genuise on July 10, 2012, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:06:56 PM

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

You are right. I think either one of these three would suffice. It seems gambling is the main contender these days. I offer to sell bitcoins on craigslist and throw in the texas holdem aspect. Just started today we'll see what happens. I personally have gotten 3 people into playing texas holdem on seals with clubs who really weren't into bitcoin but are really into poker. Now they want to buy bitcoins.

Interesting. Real life poker games with bitcoins.

"World Series of Poker....with bitcoins!"

Thats actually a good idea. I might try to make it happen. My friend plays with a bunch of guys every week. (poker that is) She brought up bitcoin and they didn't have good things to say about it. (mostly the same ignorant stuff you hear from people who know nothing about it).
Working on it though

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: redbeans2012 on July 10, 2012, 09:41:17 PM

Quote from: mem on July 10, 2012, 08:45:18 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:53:52 PM

Quote from: genuise on July 10, 2012, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:06:56 PM

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

You are right. I think either one of these three would suffice. It seems gambling is the main contender these days. I offer to sell bitcoins on craigslist and throw in the texas holdem aspect. Just started today we'll see what happens. I personally have gotten 3 people into playing texas holdem on seals with clubs who really weren't into bitcoin but are really into poker. Now they want to buy bitcoins.

Interesting. Real life poker games with bitcoins.

"World Series of Poker....with bitcoins!"

redbeans2012

hero member

Activity: 887

Merit: 1000

Quote from: mem on July 10, 2012, 08:45:18 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:53:52 PM

Quote from: genuise on July 10, 2012, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:06:56 PM

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

You are right. I think either one of these three would suffice. It seems gambling is the main contender these days. I offer to sell bitcoins on craigslist and throw in the texas holdem aspect. Just started today we'll see what happens. I personally have gotten 3 people into playing texas holdem on seals with clubs who really weren't into bitcoin but are really into poker. Now they want to buy bitcoins.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: Qoheleth on July 10, 2012, 01:26:47 PM

Calling it a bubble is a bit premature.

I think a breakout above $7.22 is a big deal, if it happens; it means that for the first time since the crash, the peaks of market sentiment are getting higher. It means we'll have left the shadow of June 2011.

Quote from: proudhon on July 10, 2012, 01:02:43 PM

I think it's also worth not forgetting that there isn't an easy way to short anymore. I expect that when shorting makes it's way back into the system the price will take a pretty big hit.

To me, this is the #1 risk factor of this being a bubble and not real growth. As with the highs of last year, there's no capacity for short positions backed by fiat; no matter how unrealistically high a person thinks $7.20 is as a price for 1BTC, they can't put their money where their mouth is unless they're already holding the asset in which they have no faith. Even a functional futures market would be enough to assuage some of my worries here, but alas.

icbit.se

Hey! It's shorting. Next excuse....

mem

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 501

Herp Derp PTY LTD

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:53:52 PM

Quote from: genuise on July 10, 2012, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:06:56 PM

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

Cluster2k

legendary

Activity: 1692

Merit: 1018

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: waspoza on July 10, 2012, 01:52:51 PM

Being some time on this forum taught me one thing. Such amount optimism always ends in one way. Big selloff. Lets see if history will repeat itself.

So, you're basically saying that after price is done
going up, it'll go down, right ? Man, I wish I had
that kind of mad skillz.

You would be surprised how many speculators and investors don't know this obvious information. They see an exponential price rise and their only conclusion is to jump on board quick as it's going even higher.

Is $7+ a bubble? Probably not, but it's the point where we saw a previous sell off all the way back to the mid $4 range. I'm a bit surprised we're still sitting well over $6 however, as I thought we'd be back to the low $5 range by now after the hype cycle surrounding Greece died down. Still, watching my bitcoin fortune grow by doing nothing is very pleasing.

BrightAnarchist

donator

Activity: 853

Merit: 1000

Meh, I'm no good at trading BTC/USD, so I guess the rally is meaningless to me. I'll just keep calmly dollar-cost averaging into BTC over time.

bitclown

full member

Activity: 185

Merit: 100

Quote from: N12 on July 10, 2012, 01:57:29 PM

Are we playing Bruce Wagner again, all hype, 0 substance, $100 by end of the month?

Well, the exchange rate has risen enough for Bruce to suddenly find Bitcoin interesting again. A pretty strong indicator in my opinion...

rebuilder

legendary

Activity: 1615

Merit: 1000

Quote from: casascius on July 10, 2012, 12:54:29 PM

Last year, few realized that bitcoins could be stolen in hacks. That freaked a lot of people out. This year, everyone knows that they can be stolen and hacked, and that they can also be protected. Someone gets hacked, and the market correctly says ho-hum, since it understands that the risk of hacking can be mitigated with cold wallets, and correctly realizes that any successful theft probably had much to do with mismanaging wallets.

I find it hard to credit few understood the risks of hacking. Looking back, I distinctly remember thinking we'll see significant losses to theft due to poor security, and the mt. gox debacle was the first big confirmation of that hunch. I'm not that smart, so anyone seriously interested in Bitcoin must have anticipated hacking. I think it's more that we didn't know what, exactly, we should defend against, and that most people aren't that savvy at computer security. Even if you know you should guard against burglars, it doesn't do much good if you don't understand they can break a window instead of coming through the front door...

You're right, though, that hacks are probably priced in now. They will keep happening, but the market's been innoculated against it. On the other hand, the gox order book has been very peculiar lately, what with the walls on both buy and sell sides boxing the price into a rather narrow range. Whether it's one player or a few... Gox knows.

phantitox

sr. member

Activity: 385

Merit: 250

I think the only thing that could stop the escalation in the price would be an outside intervention of the bitcoin network, last year were theft and hackers, maybe this year some government wants to attack against bitcoin Huh

that will be something new and history has shown that people get scared easily Tongue

evoorhees

legendary

Activity: 1008

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Democracy is the original 51% attack

Quote from: N12 on July 10, 2012, 01:57:29 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:53:52 PM

Quote from: genuise on July 10, 2012, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:06:56 PM

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope

Then why bring it up in the first place? Are we playing Bruce Wagner again, all hype, 0 substance, $100 by end of the month?

I mean, a bear could do the same thing and tell you he knows some secret fundamental that will make Bitcoins go back to 6 cents.

LOL are you comparing me to Bruce Wagner? Hopefully I've demonstrated that I am not someone of "0 substance." People who know me, trust me, and know that I don't make vapid claims. I'm involved in building many of the things to which I'm referring, and it's not yet time to announce them, so I don't.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:53:52 PM

Quote from: genuise on July 10, 2012, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:06:56 PM

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope

Then why bring it up in the first place? Are we playing Bruce Wagner again, all hype, 0 substance, $100 by end of the month?

I mean, a bear could do the same thing and tell you he knows some secret fundamental that will make Bitcoins go back to 6 cents.

evoorhees

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1023

Democracy is the original 51% attack

Quote from: genuise on July 10, 2012, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:06:56 PM

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope

waspoza

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 508

Firstbits: 1waspoza

Being some time on this forum taught me one thing. Such amount optimism always ends in one way. Big selloff. Lets see if history will repeat itself.

BrightAnarchist

donator

Activity: 853

Merit: 1000

Quote from: evoorhees on July 10, 2012, 01:06:56 PM

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

This is a really good point, I agree.

Qoheleth

legendary

Activity: 960

Merit: 1028

Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.

Calling it a bubble is a bit premature.

I think a breakout above $7.22 is a big deal, if it happens; it means that for the first time since the crash, the peaks of market sentiment are getting higher. It means we'll have left the shadow of June 2011.

Quote from: proudhon on July 10, 2012, 01:02:43 PM

I think it's also worth not forgetting that there isn't an easy way to short anymore. I expect that when shorting makes it's way back into the system the price will take a pretty big hit.

To me, this is the #1 risk factor of this being a bubble and not real growth. As with the highs of last year, there's no capacity for short positions backed by fiat; no matter how unrealistically high a person thinks $7.20 is as a price for 1BTC, they can't put their money where their mouth is unless they're already holding the asset in which they have no faith. Even a functional futures market would be enough to assuage some of my worries here, but alas.

AmazonStuff

hero member

Activity: 628

Merit: 500

Every bubble that doesn't burst is a good bubble, I hope this one is elastic enough Cheesy

BoardGameCoin

sr. member

Activity: 283

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Quote from: Piper67 on July 10, 2012, 01:15:59 PM

Bitcoin is still ridiculously undervalued.

+100

It may be over-valued for its present utility, but not by all that much, but the fundamentals are unlike anything else available

Piper67

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1001

Or... the 2011 bubble was never a bubble, just the kind of drop in price you would expect as a consequence of hacks and theft. A bubble presupposes that Bitcoin was fundamentally overpriced. I don't think it was then, and I don't think it is now. If it lives up to one fraction of its potential, Bitcoin is still ridiculously undervalued.

Topic: A second bubble? - page 2. (Read 5442 times)