A shorting paradise: next target is 5.5k

exstasie

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Quote from: gentlemand on June 04, 2020, 07:50:34 PM

Quote from: Lanatsa on June 04, 2020, 07:41:53 PM

Im not saying long term holds is trash but it would be good if you do deal with price on active manner.

Most people fail at it.

Even if they are somewhat successful at hedging USD value, most BTC traders are destined to lose coins over time, and to me that's a tragedy. That's what happens when losing USD becomes more important than losing BTC. I used to see things that way, and I'd be a lot richer today if I didn't have that mindset back in 2015-2016, I'll tell you that.

The default position of "buy and hold" has worked out quite well historically for BTC investors. It's difficult for the average person to beat its performance.

I prefer to keep most coins in cold storage, while also longing/shorting with BTC collateral, the goal always being to get more BTC. That means my default position is spot holding during range (most of the time), longing into active uptrends, and shorting into active downtrends. While that position exposes me to additional downside risk vs. USD holders, it fits my long term bullish outlook. I'm much more worried about losing BTC.

STT

legendary

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^^ Its not wrong to sell tbh especially if you need the liquidity at that moment but what happens is the person doesnt rebuy when it makes a low. Everyone goes super emo about the prospects just on the low but the trick is to realise that sentiment is already in the price, it is hard to gauge and not be caught up in the negative momentum. Its common to every market.

Smart hands off approach is sell but put in buy orders at the same time at fixed lower prices, scale in as most places allow you to do so. Dont get scared off and alter it later, its a definite you have reduced any loss from the lower pricing. I do the same with stocks quite often, commodities especially are very volatile and BTC has some similarity to that while not being prone to over production problems.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Lanatsa on June 04, 2020, 07:41:53 PM

Im not saying long term holds is trash but it would be good if you do deal with price on active manner.

Most people fail at it.

I remember someone PMing me who got a BTC payout for some work when it had returned to $1000 after all those years. For some reason they wanted me to give them permission to sell it. I told them to sit and wait as you never know what'll happen and a return to four figures was significant after this long, but they were convinced it was a temporary blip and the price would carry on back down. They wanted out so off they went and were never heard of again.

I don't recall anyone predicting any move that's happened in recent times either. If you'd been furiously trading it more than likely you would now have zilch.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: Leon83 on June 02, 2020, 06:28:38 PM

June 1: shorts got rekt
June 2: longs got rekt

Conclusion: don't trade crypto on small time frames. Invest for long term Cheesy

Conclusion wont fit out for everybody yet lots of them likes to fight with the waves. Im not saying long term holds is trash but it would be good if you do deal with price on active manner.

For now we do need to break once again that 10k barrier to shoot up on higher levels. Im not seeing for that next target of 5.5k to happen anytime soon but all do have possibilities

because this market is always been unpredictable.For now im waiting up for some little correction but not really bad as this one.

STT

legendary

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Whipsaw action, back and forth makes it very hard to hold fast vs movement in both directions but the conclusion is neutral for me for most of this year. It needs more time to work itself out, but I would add the closing price is where the bar forms and every week we get a weekly bar and guess in between receiving those. I only try to draw strong conclusions from weekly stuff, we arent proven in any trend at present reminds me a bit of 2018 which did eventually resolve downwards but only after a long time sideways.

Leon83

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June 1: shorts got rekt
June 2: longs got rekt

Conclusion: don't trade crypto on small time frames. Invest for long term Cheesy

suchmoon

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https://bpip.org

What is the shorting paradise crystal ball saying about Bitcoin attempting to break out above $10k? Should I short some more here?

monineklutak

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The OGz Club

if support at $ 7,000 goes through then $ 5,500 might be possible,
but right now there is still support at $ 8,000 - $ 9,000 so for $ 5500 is the last thing to think about

carlfebz2

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Quote from: Taskford on May 28, 2020, 07:42:47 AM

Quote from: Bossian on May 28, 2020, 05:50:21 AM

Quote from: Bossian on May 24, 2020, 11:22:20 AM

Quote from: thecodebear on May 24, 2020, 03:47:32 AM

Wow. I would laugh hard at anyone trying to short this back to $5k haha, OP must be thinking a brand new global pandemic is gonna hit as this one starts winding down in the next few months. But hey I'd love to see the OP put his money where his mouth is, sure he'll lose a bunch of money but if you're gonna make a ludicrous prediction (and call it obvious no less!) you should follow through with it!

Gotta love when people draw random lines on a chart to say there will be a massive sell off for no reason.

Just a few posts above there is your proof, post #26.

Time of this post: BTC trading @ $9067.

Today, we saw a Bitcoin @ $9002, from this point, my use of the Elliott Wave theory indicates a possible bounce back to $9442 (using Fibonacci).

Of course this doesn't go against my middle term bearish target. I probably won't open a quick long just for this (too tricky) but curious to see if this plays out. Then from $9442 area we should finally consolidate below $9000 to continue the downtrend, the drop in end of May/beginning of June should be much sharper than what we witnessed during the last few days.

$7800 should be reached in a few weeks.

4 days ago I posted about this 9.4k target, right now Bitcoin is trading at 9.2k, and there is clearly a last bullish trap to liquidate all shorts up to maybe 9.8k?

9.8k is still possible, or 9.4k (depends which Fibonacci figure we trust), after that the real crash should begin. Hold tight Tongue

Something good is really happening but actually I'm not gonna buy any speculation related on pumps on dumps given since by now I'm looking for good movements and profitable movements since for the past days the flow is so promising, Maybe we can see that $9.8k in next following days but I'm expecting to see a dump before we can see that.

Making up some scalping and some swing trades. I would definitely wait up for some slight pullbacks before re-entering the market.9800 is indeed a strong resistance imho and if the price wont make any breakout then its likely to retrace and thats a nice spot to consider to make some re-entry.

Same as yours im not really buying to those speculation threads that do talk about crashes yet no one can precisely know on when this would happen.So it will really be like some sort of
gamble from time to time.

5.5k? Im not saying its impossible but its unlikely to happen nowadays to go back into the level.

Taskford

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Quote from: Bossian on May 28, 2020, 05:50:21 AM

Quote from: Bossian on May 24, 2020, 11:22:20 AM

Quote from: thecodebear on May 24, 2020, 03:47:32 AM

Wow. I would laugh hard at anyone trying to short this back to $5k haha, OP must be thinking a brand new global pandemic is gonna hit as this one starts winding down in the next few months. But hey I'd love to see the OP put his money where his mouth is, sure he'll lose a bunch of money but if you're gonna make a ludicrous prediction (and call it obvious no less!) you should follow through with it!

Gotta love when people draw random lines on a chart to say there will be a massive sell off for no reason.

Just a few posts above there is your proof, post #26.

Time of this post: BTC trading @ $9067.

Today, we saw a Bitcoin @ $9002, from this point, my use of the Elliott Wave theory indicates a possible bounce back to $9442 (using Fibonacci).

Of course this doesn't go against my middle term bearish target. I probably won't open a quick long just for this (too tricky) but curious to see if this plays out. Then from $9442 area we should finally consolidate below $9000 to continue the downtrend, the drop in end of May/beginning of June should be much sharper than what we witnessed during the last few days.

$7800 should be reached in a few weeks.

4 days ago I posted about this 9.4k target, right now Bitcoin is trading at 9.2k, and there is clearly a last bullish trap to liquidate all shorts up to maybe 9.8k?

9.8k is still possible, or 9.4k (depends which Fibonacci figure we trust), after that the real crash should begin. Hold tight Tongue

Something good is really happening but actually I'm not gonna buy any speculation related on pumps on dumps given since by now I'm looking for good movements and profitable movements since for the past days the flow is so promising, Maybe we can see that $9.8k in next following days but I'm expecting to see a dump before we can see that.

Bossian

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Quote from: Bossian on May 24, 2020, 11:22:20 AM

Quote from: thecodebear on May 24, 2020, 03:47:32 AM

Wow. I would laugh hard at anyone trying to short this back to $5k haha, OP must be thinking a brand new global pandemic is gonna hit as this one starts winding down in the next few months. But hey I'd love to see the OP put his money where his mouth is, sure he'll lose a bunch of money but if you're gonna make a ludicrous prediction (and call it obvious no less!) you should follow through with it!

Gotta love when people draw random lines on a chart to say there will be a massive sell off for no reason.

Just a few posts above there is your proof, post #26.

Time of this post: BTC trading @ $9067.

Today, we saw a Bitcoin @ $9002, from this point, my use of the Elliott Wave theory indicates a possible bounce back to $9442 (using Fibonacci).

Of course this doesn't go against my middle term bearish target. I probably won't open a quick long just for this (too tricky) but curious to see if this plays out. Then from $9442 area we should finally consolidate below $9000 to continue the downtrend, the drop in end of May/beginning of June should be much sharper than what we witnessed during the last few days.

$7800 should be reached in a few weeks.

4 days ago I posted about this 9.4k target, right now Bitcoin is trading at 9.2k, and there is clearly a last bullish trap to liquidate all shorts up to maybe 9.8k?

9.8k is still possible, or 9.4k (depends which Fibonacci figure we trust), after that the real crash should begin. Hold tight Tongue

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 24, 2020, 03:47:32 AM

Wow. I would laugh hard at anyone trying to short this back to $5k haha, OP must be thinking a brand new global pandemic is gonna hit as this one starts winding down in the next few months.

Not a laughing matter to me. I had similar confidence as a bull in October 2019 and February 2020. Smacked down both times, no higher highs. Let's break $10.5K before laughing at bears. I'm a little uncomfortable with how many bulls have been declaring victory before breaking the year-long bearish structure. George W. Bush "mission accomplished" vibes going on.

Somewhat unlikely we see the scale of panic seen in March, that's true. However as long as we stay inside this 2018-2020 contracting range, the $5,000s still look very possible:

Quote from: exstasie on March 24, 2020, 05:15:43 PM

Here is one guess based on price action in 2015:

KTChampions

legendary

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I am skeptical about TA - for some reason, 2 adherents of this method from one graph can make 3 completely different forecasts Grin

In this case, I agree that the short looks very good now, but not in such timeframes (July-August). A big move should happen much earlier.
In the event that you are right, there is a question: is it too expensive to hold a position based on your forecast for so long? It is possible that potential profit will be "eaten up" by the payment for holding a position for such a long time.

STT

legendary

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Quote

lower highs

I see the recent lower high and thought it could prove a fair signal to watch carefully. I dont know its formed comprehensively enough to say 5.5k target is fair as a consequence but for some reason your chart seems fairly clear in that idea yea.

bitbunnny

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Quote from: Febo on May 23, 2020, 07:52:56 AM

Quote from: cafetools on May 22, 2020, 12:53:18 AM

You are predicting an almost identical massive sell off similar to the COVID-19 scare panic dump? It will take some serious FUD for BTC to continue to drop lower than 8k.

The economy is reopening, and the bulls will be back soon.

If China and Europe and USA get second wave then anything is possible. Yes we have thicker skin now but we are out of reserves. Q1 GDP drop was massive. I dont understand how Q2 projections are so good since Europe and USA will be way more drastically hit in Q2 then in Q1.

These are just predictions but they don't need to happen. Also, I think that countries have learned a lot from this pandemic and they will be better prepared for the future. Also, they activated some financial mechanisms that will help them improve situation in Q2 and soften the GDP falll.
It's yet to see if this will be successful but let's hope for the best

As far as Bitcoin is concerned I don't see any possibilities for the moment for such a huge drop, 5500$ isn't realistic value for my point of view. Yes, some corrections are possibilities and will happen but despite that I don't expect such dramatic price fall.

coinfinger

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Shorting right now doesn't make any sense to me at all, right now price is getting more and more valuable every second and that is why I think its a ticking bomb waiting to go off any moment now. I feel like $15k is a lot more possible than 5k right now since the price may not be changing but value has been increasing a lot. Undervaluing bitcoin has never worked for anyone at any moment. There has been millions of people, thousands of newspapers and tv channels, hundreds of writers and anchors who have repeatedly said that bitcoin will eventually die.

Look where we are now, at 9 thousand dollars per bitcoin and people became millionaires or maybe even billionaires thanks to bitcoin. Halving has happened, we are moving towards higher levels with every single day according to mathematics, unless people go against those mathematics (quite possible of course) which I doubt will happen.

Harriti

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HEX: Longer pays better

I see no reason for bitcoin to plummet to $ 5k5. The halving event has taken place and the supply is dwindling, people will soon fomo bitcoin and buy it more from around $ 8k5 and $ 8k. In the coming time, the pandemic will be under control and the economy will be back to normal operation. There are too many conditions for bitcoin to grow in the near future. in case of a drop, the price of bitcoin will only stop at $ 8k, after which it will not fall further.

Desscount

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if indeed it goes to $ 5500 it looks like I'm ready to buy it, because it's been awaited, I've already missed buying Bitcoin at a price of $ 4000, and I really regret it, now I will wait for it Grin

Bossian

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 24, 2020, 03:47:32 AM

Wow. I would laugh hard at anyone trying to short this back to $5k haha, OP must be thinking a brand new global pandemic is gonna hit as this one starts winding down in the next few months. But hey I'd love to see the OP put his money where his mouth is, sure he'll lose a bunch of money but if you're gonna make a ludicrous prediction (and call it obvious no less!) you should follow through with it!

Gotta love when people draw random lines on a chart to say there will be a massive sell off for no reason.

Just a few posts above there is your proof, post #26.

Time of this post: BTC trading @ $9067.

Today, we saw a Bitcoin @ $9002, from this point, my use of the Elliott Wave theory indicates a possible bounce back to $9442 (using Fibonacci).

Of course this doesn't go against my middle term bearish target. I probably won't open a quick long just for this (too tricky) but curious to see if this plays out. Then from $9442 area we should finally consolidate below $9000 to continue the downtrend, the drop in end of May/beginning of June should be much sharper than what we witnessed during the last few days.

$7800 should be reached in a few weeks.

thecodebear

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Wow. I would laugh hard at anyone trying to short this back to $5k haha, OP must be thinking a brand new global pandemic is gonna hit as this one starts winding down in the next few months. But hey I'd love to see the OP put his money where his mouth is, sure he'll lose a bunch of money but if you're gonna make a ludicrous prediction (and call it obvious no less!) you should follow through with it!

Gotta love when people draw random lines on a chart to say there will be a massive sell off for no reason.

Topic: A shorting paradise: next target is 5.5k (Read 1122 times)