A shorting paradise: next target is 5.5k - page 2.

exstasie

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Quote from: ?? on ??

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downtrend is still intact

Not even proven yet nevermine intact. We arent in any ongoing downtrend from last summer as far as Im concerned and so we must form a new trend from here, there is old volume but that always applies and I take that going back to 2018 as some relevance.

In my opinion it's a downtrend until bulls retake $10.5K. I see all lower highs and lower lows since June 2019:

According to Dow Theory, that's a pretty obvious primary downtrend until proven otherwise:

Quote

The reversal of a downward primary trend occurs when the market no longer falls to lower lows and highs. This happens when the market establishes a peak that is higher than the previous peak, followed by a trough that is higher than the previous trough, which are the components of an upward trend.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dowtheory.asp

Breaking that downward trend is very possible but it's worth pointing out that many bulls (including myself) were prematurely celebrating a new bull market in October 2019 and this past February. Without a break of $10.5K there is significant possible downside from here.

exstasie

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Quote from: Keiser Soze on May 23, 2020, 01:58:51 AM

Tell 10 different traders to do TA and you're likely to wind up with 15 different answers. Most TA is horseshit, especially for crypto. A trend line is only valid until it's broken, what kind of crap is that? It's like saying "I predict Stock X will continue to go up, until it starts to go down".

Markets are unpredictable. Trend trading strategies are a monument to that. They don't pretend to predict the market, they just set concrete metrics to avoid being on the wrong side of the trend.

Case in point, trading the 50-day MA:

You're not catching the top or the bottom but you're hedging against major drawdowns. Shorter term trend lines and faster MAs can act as an early warning sign and net you significantly more profits, at the risk of shaking you out or trapping you when there are false breakouts.

It's all about getting exposure and hedging risks, not so much about being right or wrong. Most traders are wrong quite a lot. With the right risk profile they can still make a lot of money.

casperBGD

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Quote from: dominos on May 23, 2020, 07:25:19 AM

Quote from: beerlover on May 22, 2020, 10:49:42 AM

However, even the idea that someone can look at TA and say 5.5k while the other person could look at it and say 100k could very well be enough reason that people either don't know how to use TA at all, or basically it is a proof that TA could be looked from anywhere you want and you could see whatever you want, people could literally draw any conclusion they could want.

Yes, mainly because everybody can look into other interval of the chart, see other patterns, see other trend/triangle lines and have other opinion.
I don't know if it is really good or bad but that's how you see people saying 5,5k, 12k, etc. and other random numbers which are not helping anyone with getting statement where the market is right now.

agree, it depends what chart interval do you look at, i am not an expert in TA, but know that chart interval should be in line with your expectations, if you plan long term investment, you do not need to look at 15 min chart, and what that chart is showing should be irrelevant to you, you should be interested in long term, so daily, or weekly chart, if not monthly should be looked at - and these charts are all showing different lines and goals, because time frame is completely different for daily trader and long term investor (including all steps in-between)

dominos

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Quote from: beerlover on May 22, 2020, 10:49:42 AM

However, even the idea that someone can look at TA and say 5.5k while the other person could look at it and say 100k could very well be enough reason that people either don't know how to use TA at all, or basically it is a proof that TA could be looked from anywhere you want and you could see whatever you want, people could literally draw any conclusion they could want.

Yes, mainly because everybody can look into other interval of the chart, see other patterns, see other trend/triangle lines and have other opinion.
I don't know if it is really good or bad but that's how you see people saying 5,5k, 12k, etc. and other random numbers which are not helping anyone with getting statement where the market is right now.

mindrust

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The only thing that keeps crypto afloat right now is tether.

Quote from: mindrust on May 14, 2020, 03:15:52 PM

They doubled their balance sheets since the big crash.

There is no fucking way I can invest big money again while that abomination keeps growing.

leyton11

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Quote from: cafetools on May 21, 2020, 11:53:18 PM

You are predicting an almost identical massive sell off similar to the COVID-19 scare panic dump? It will take some serious FUD for BTC to continue to drop lower than 8k.

The economy is reopening, and the bulls will be back soon.

This corona virus pandemic is really serious. This is an economic virus so opening the economy early is impossible. In countries with low levels of disease impacts, consumers are still affected by living conditions. after the pandemic is under control there will be a lot of debt and a great recession will happen again. You should be careful at this sensitive time.

Febo

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Quote from: cafetools on May 21, 2020, 11:53:18 PM

You are predicting an almost identical massive sell off similar to the COVID-19 scare panic dump? It will take some serious FUD for BTC to continue to drop lower than 8k.

The economy is reopening, and the bulls will be back soon.

If China and Europe and USA get second wave then anything is possible. Yes we have thicker skin now but we are out of reserves. Q1 GDP drop was massive. I dont understand how Q2 projections are so good since Europe and USA will be way more drastically hit in Q2 then in Q1.

fortunecrypto

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Op is answering all the criticism effectively so far so why making a thread a moderated one if you are open to criticism and you can answer all of this, I have suspicion on moderated topic either they are hiding something (applicable to ICO), cannot defend their projection if there are traders
or they do not want spam comment, unlikely because it will be deleted by mods, show your credibility next time by making an open thread.

Bossian

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Quote from: cafetools on May 22, 2020, 09:15:25 AM

Despite all this talk from the original poster, I want to see him put his money where his mouth is. Actually show proof of him shorting it, with a big chunk from his savings. A lot of traders are monday morning quarterbacks honestly.

Happy?

Why do you feel so suspicious? Kiss

Quote from: DeathAngel on May 22, 2020, 10:10:52 AM

Oh Bossian, you’re always so bearish, I really don’t see it being possible that we fall that low again. I don’t think we’ll ever see a sub $7,000 again in our lifetimes. We’re set to enter the next bull run soon, the bottom has passed.

Not always bearish my friend.

My bearish predictions get noticed more than my bullish predictions. Human nature and nature of this forum.

In December 2019 I posted so many times about a long @6.5k to sell @9k. In March I also recommended to buy @4k to sell @6.5k, saying it was a conservative target. Now with my next move, I am clearly more aggressive but also more confident

You are right about one thing though, I am usually bullish only in the short term and bearish in the middle term, but I shouldn't be blamed for what the charts say, should I? 2020 is a bearish year overall, not my fault. 2021 who knows?

Quote from: okala on May 22, 2020, 02:46:59 PM

Op has said what he or she thinks will happen and from my experience charting do not always work well in cryptocurrencies. I am bullish and if bitcoin get below $7000 I will also buy.

In my opinion quite the opposite, Bitcoin is like 95% TA and 5% fundamental, so to speak. Much easier to trade Bitcoin than trade any stock. My opinion.

Keiser Soze

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Tell 10 different traders to do TA and you're likely to wind up with 15 different answers. Most TA is horseshit, especially for crypto. A trend line is only valid until it's broken, what kind of crap is that? It's like saying "I predict Stock X will continue to go up, until it starts to go down".

mahilchii

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Personally I don't think the price will fall so badly, even after Halving we are seeing some great performances from BTC which should be much appreciated.

Just a small drop in the market doesn't mean the price will affect badly, by the way we have experienced such drop in several occasions. Most of them are expecting pump as most of the countries are back from the lockdown and getting back to the normal life so I don't think the price will fall so cheaply..

okala

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Quote from: Bitmore1 on May 22, 2020, 08:06:14 AM

Quote from: Leon83 on May 22, 2020, 04:42:14 AM

Would be insanely stupid to short a bullish asset class during a bull cycle Cheesy

I don't see it either. If BTC goes below $6K, I am selling my car and buying!

Op has said what he or she thinks will happen and from my experience charting do not always work well in cryptocurrencies. I am bullish and if bitcoin get below $7000 I will also buy.

kapalmabur

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I understand your analysis and respect it, but thinking of falling to $ 5500 is something that shouldn't happen,
we are still on the Bitcoin bullrun, and will not go to $ 5500 Wink

Gozie51

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Quote from: boyptc on May 22, 2020, 07:43:45 AM

Best of luck to bears as well.

I've thought that it would drop to $8000 but it seems like we've just hit the resistance of $8900. I'm also considering that it will still drop and that's inevitable within a few months. Well, if ever the analysis you've made is correct on that estimation you have given, I'll buy.

Hitting a resistance and bouncing out could be risky as tasting can happen again which will look at confirmation. But if price drops to 5,000 which I doubt, I'm also going to buy Grin

.
A correction though is on the way but further 5,000 is rather to lower side. We are on speculation anyway and market price is improving from 5,000 during covid-19 to 10,000 last week.

Slow death

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I do not know how you can think that the price will fall to $5000 at a time when countries are already starting to return to normal life and we know that after halving the price slowly starts to increase a lot, for sure that the rich will start to put money in bitcoin as soon as they start to go back to their normal life. Think, if even with this catastrophic situation the price was able to remain at $ 9000, then imagine what will happen when the lives of people all over the world return to normal? the price will go up a lot. I know you did a lot of analysis, but this analysis fails most of the time when people make bitcoin price predictions

Quote from: DeathAngel on May 22, 2020, 10:10:52 AM

Oh Bossian, you’re always so bearish, I really don’t see it being possible that we fall that low again.

he must have met the time traveler that John McAfee mentioned last year

Quote from: DeathAngel on May 22, 2020, 10:10:52 AM

I don’t think we’ll ever see a sub $7,000 again in our lifetimes. We’re set to enter the next bull run soon, the bottom has passed.

I think you are being very optimistic, don't forget that we are talking about the crypto market where some whale can come out of nowhere and cause a big dump without any reason

beerlover

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This is why I love TA people and the short term traders. Right now we have two topics about how bitcoin could break the biggest bull very quickly very soon because it looks like 20k+ is very possible even 100k is at our reach, and there is a topic here about how the target is 5.5k, I can't talk about which one is right and which one is wrong, because I am not an expert and I can't say anything.

However, even the idea that someone can look at TA and say 5.5k while the other person could look at it and say 100k could very well be enough reason that people either don't know how to use TA at all, or basically it is a proof that TA could be looked from anywhere you want and you could see whatever you want, people could literally draw any conclusion they could want.

DeathAngel

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Oh Bossian, you’re always so bearish, I really don’t see it being possible that we fall that low again. I don’t think we’ll ever see a sub $7,000 again in our lifetimes. We’re set to enter the next bull run soon, the bottom has passed.

cafetools

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Despite all this talk from the original poster, I want to see him put his money where his mouth is. Actually show proof of him shorting it, with a big chunk from his savings. A lot of traders are monday morning quarterbacks honestly.

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: Bitmore1 on May 22, 2020, 08:06:14 AM

Quote from: Leon83 on May 22, 2020, 04:42:14 AM

Would be insanely stupid to short a bullish asset class during a bull cycle Cheesy

I don't see it either. If BTC goes below $6K, I am selling my car and buying!

You better do it at $8,000 or $7,000. Leave the $6,000 to history.

But if ever that $6,000 will arrive, let it. We'll be having another round of buying party.

Quote from: Bossian on May 21, 2020, 11:00:58 PM

The most ambitious traders will aim at 3.5k

The most ambitious traders will therefore end up waiting forever.

Bitmore1

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Quote from: Leon83 on May 22, 2020, 04:42:14 AM

Would be insanely stupid to short a bullish asset class during a bull cycle Cheesy

I don't see it either. If BTC goes below $6K, I am selling my car and buying!

Topic: A shorting paradise: next target is 5.5k - page 2. (Read 1182 times)